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Predictability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High Associated with Different ENSO Phases in GloSea5

Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 926-940页

作者： Daquan ZHANG gill m.martin Jose mRODRIGUEZ Zongjian KE Lijuan CHEN Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK

The western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) dominates the summer climate over East Asia. The intensity,position, and shape of WNPSH influence the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclone activities in this region. This paper intends to investigate the performance of the UK met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(GloSea5) in simulation/prediction of the WNPSH based on a hindcast dataset. Analyses of the hindcast data show a systematic bias in the mean circulation over West Pacific, with negative geopotential height anomalies over the western North Pacific(WNP) and cyclonic anomalies in the 850-hPa winds and water vapor transport, indicating a weakening and eastward shift of the WNPSH. Despite the model’s bias in the climatology, it well captured the interannual variability of the monthly and seasonal-mean intensity of the WNPSH and the position of its ridge line in boreal summer from 1993 to 2015. The seasonal hindcasts indicate that there is significant prediction skill at up to three-month lead time for both the intensity and position of the WNPSH ridge line. The relationship between the WNPSH and different phases of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in both the observational data and GloSea5 hindcasts was then investigated. The model captured the summer WNPSH anomalies well during most of the ENSO phases, except in the La Nina decaying and neutral summers. The intensity of the anticyclone in the WNP is weak in the decaying phase of El Nino in the GloSea5 hindcasts compared with the reanalysis data. GloSea5 is capable of representing the lagged teleconnection between El Nino events in the previous winter and the intensity of the WNPSH in the following summer. Regression analysis reveals weakened negative sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) over the WNP in GloSea5, which reduced the gradient between the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean, resulting in a weaker easterly anomaly a

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(GloSea5) El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) precipitation predictability

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Predicting June mean Rainfall in the middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第1期37卷 29-41页

作者： gill m.martin Nick J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Philip E.BETT met Office Exeter

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in *** of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain *** find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASmI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional ***,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASmI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall *** interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical *** ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.

关键词： forecast skill EASmI monthly mean rainfall East Asian summer monsoon Yangtze River basin

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.BETT gill m.martin Nick DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,may–June–July(mJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer monsoon(EASm)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASm rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer monsoon

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Predictability of South China Sea Summer monsoon Onset

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 253-260,339页

作者： gill m.martin Amulya CHEVUTURI Ruth E.COmER Nick J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Daquan ZHANG met Office Hadley Centre Met Office NCAS-Climate and Department of meteorology University of Reading College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter University Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.

关键词： SCSSm South China Sea summer monsoon EASm East Asian summer monsoon

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Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2013-2028页

作者： Daquan ZHANG Lijuan CHEN gill mmartin Zongjian KE China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEmD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China met Office Hadley Centre Met OfficeExeter EX13PBUK

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWm),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead *** GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWm well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast ***5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWm intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background ***5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWm,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East *** representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

关键词： East Asia winter monsoon(EAWm) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5) El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction skill model bias

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nicola martin Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE gill m.martin Nicola GOLDING Joanne CAmP Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HEWITT Leon HERmANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU min LIU met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASm) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in may–June–July(mJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both mJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the mJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) East Asian summer monsoon(EASm)

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Erratum to: Predicting June mean Rainfall in the middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第9期37卷 1032-1032页

作者： gill m.martin Nick J.DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Philip E.BETT met Office ExeterDevon EX13PBUnited Kingdom

The article[Predicting June mean Rainfall in the middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin],written by[gill ***,Nick ***,Adam ***,and Philip ***],was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal on[1... 详细信息

关键词： Yangtze middle Lower

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Getting physical with medical education:Exercise based virtual anatomy review classes for medical students

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World Journal of methodology 2025年第1期15卷 20-25页

作者： Nadeesha R Samarasinghe Taniya S Nagpal michele L Barbeau Charys m.martin Division of General Surgery Faculty of MedicineUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouver V6T 1Z3BCCanada Faculty of Kinesiology Sport and RecreationUniversity of AlbertaEdmonton T6G 2R3ABCanada Anatomy and Cell Biology University of Western OntarioLondon N6A 3K7ONCanada Department of Anatomy and Cell Biology Schulich School of Medicine and DentistryThe University of Western OntarioLondon N6A 3K7ONCanada

The benefits of regular physical activity are well ***,few studies have examined the effectiveness of integrating physical activity(PA)into curricula within a post-secondary *** investigate the incorporation of PA into medical curriculum,we developed a series of optional exercise-based review sessions designed to reinforce musculoskeletal(mSK)anatomy course *** synchronous sessions were co-taught by a group fitness instructor and an anatomy *** fitness instructor would lead students through both strength and yoga style exercises,while the anatomy instructor asked questions about relevant anatomical structures related to course material previously *** the sessions,participants were asked to evaluate the classes on their self-reported exam preparedness in improving mSK anatomy knowledge,PA levels,and mental *** participants completed surveys;a majority agreed that the classes increased understanding of mSK concepts(90.0%)and activity levels(97.7%).many(70.0%)felt that the classes helped reduce *** majority of respondents(90.0%)agreed that the classes contributed to increased feelings of social ***,medical students saw benefit in PA based interventions to supplement mSK course *** with increasing activity levels and promoting health behaviours,integrating PA into medical curriculum may improve comprehension of learning material,alleviate stress and foster social connectivity among medical students.

关键词： medical education musculoskeletal Anatomy Exercise Online learning

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Alternative Strategy for Development of Dielectric Calcium Copper Titanate‑Based Electrolytes for Low‑Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

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Nano-micro Letters 2025年第1期17卷 310-332页

作者： Sajid Rauf muhammad Bilal Hanif Zuhra Tayyab matej Veis mAKYousaf Shah Naveed mushtaq Dmitry medvedev Yibin Tian Chen Xia martin motola Bin Zhu College of mechatronics and Control Engineering Shenzhen UniversityShenzhen 518060People’s Republic of China Department of Inorganic Chemistry Faculty of Natural SciencesComenius University BratislavaIlkovicova684215 BratislavaSlovakia Energy Storage Joint Research Center School of Energy and EnvironmentSoutheast UniversityNanjing 210096People’s Republic of China Hydrogen Energy Laboratory Ural Federal University620002 EkaterinburgRussia Laboratory of Electrochemical Devices Based on Solid Oxide Proton Electrolytes Institute of High Temperature Electrochemistry620066 EkaterinburgRussia School of microelectronics Hubei UniversityWuhan 430062People’s Republic of China

The development of low-temperature solid oxide fuel cells(LT-SOFCs)is of significant importance for realizing the widespread application of *** has stimulated a substantial materials research effort in developing high oxide-ion conductivity in the electrolyte layer of *** this context,for the first time,a dielectric material,CaCu_(3)Ti_(4)O_(12)(CCTO)is designed for LT-SOFCs electrolyte application in this *** individual CCTO and its heterostructure materials with a p-type Ni_(0.8)Co_(0.15)Al_(0.05)LiO_(2−δ)(NCAL)semiconductor are evaluated as alternative electrolytes in LT-SOFC at 450–550℃.The single cell with the individual CCTO electrolyte exhibits a power output of approximately 263 mW cm^(-2) and an open-circuit voltage(OCV)of 0.95 V at 550℃,while the cell with the CCTO–NCAL heterostructure electrolyte capably delivers an improved power output of approximately 605 mW cm^(-2) along with a higher OCV over 1.0 V,which indicates the introduction of high hole-conducting NCAL into the CCTO could enhance the cell performance rather than inducing any potential short-circuiting *** is found that these promising outcomes are due to the interplay of the dielectric material,its structure,and overall properties that led to improve electrochemical mechanism in CCTO–***,density functional theory calculations provide the detailed information about the electronic and structural properties of the CCTO and NCAL and their heterostructure CCTO–*** study thus provides a new approach for developing new advanced electrolytes for LT-SOFCs.

关键词： LT-SOFCs Dielectric CaCu_(3)Ti_(4)O_(12) Semiconductor Ni_(0.8)Co_(0.15)Al_(0.05)LiO_(2−δ) Ionic conductivity Heterostructure electrolyte

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movement analysis in the diagnosis and management of Parkinson’s disease

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Neural Regeneration Research 2025年第2期20卷 485-486页

作者： Johannes Burtscher Nicolas Bourdillon Jules mJanssen Daalen Aurélien Patoz Julien FBally martin Kopp Davide malatesta Bastiaan RBloem Institute of Sport Sciences University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland Radboud University medical Center Department of NeurologyDonders Institute for BrainCognition and BehaviorCenter of Expertise for Parkinson and Movement DisordersNijmegenThe Netherlands Radboud University medical Center Department of Medical BioSciencesNijmegenThe Netherlands Research and Development Department Volodalen Swiss Sport LabAigleSwitzerland Service of Neurology Department of Clinical NeurosciencesLausanne University Hospital(CHUV)and University of Lausanne(UNIL)LausanneSwitzerland Department of Sport Science University of InnsbruckInnsbruckAustria

Challenges in the diagnosis and treatment of Parkinson’s disease:Parkinson’s disease(PD)is an increasingly prevalent neurodegenerative disease,at first sight primarily characterized by motor symptoms,although non-motor symptoms also constitute a major part of the overall ***,this disease cannot be diagnosed reliably until a large part of the vulnerable dopaminergic neurons has been irretrievably lost,and the disease progresses *** biological criteria for PD have been proposed recently and might eventually improve early diagnosis,but they require further validation,and their use will initially be restricted to a research environment(Darweesh et al.,2024).

关键词： diagnosis Clinical eventually

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