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Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

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Journal of Mountain Science 2016年第3期13卷 465-475页

作者： JIA Hui-cong PAN Dong-hua LI Jing ZHANG Wan-chang ghulam rasul State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100094 China National Disaster Reduction Center of China Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China Beijing 100124 China Satellite Environment Center Ministry of Environmental Protection Beijing 100094 China Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad 44000 Pakistan

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC（Environmental Policy Integrated Climate） model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was ＆lt;0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan *** results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.

关键词： Vulnerability Risk assessment Drought EPIC model Maize Southwest China

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A Diagnostic Study of Record Heavy Rain in Twin Cities Islāmābad-Rāwalpindi

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第6期21卷 976-988页

作者： ghulam rasul Qamar-uz-Zaman CHAUDHRY 赵思雄曾庆存 Meteorological Service of Pakistan P. O. Box 1214 Islāamāabad-Pakistan Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Graduate School Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039

Using surface and NCEP reanalysis data along with radar and satellite images, diagnosis has been carried out to probe the reasons for the very heavy rainfall that occurred in Islāmābad-Rāwalpindi on 23 July 2001. It has been revealed that the sudden evolution of this meso-scale severe weather system was the direct result of strong surface convection in moist and unstable lower layers of the atmosphere. The subsequent rapid development was the combined effect of the presence of the mid latitude westerly’s trough in the north and moisture feeding through monsoon flow along the Himalayas and also the direct south-westerly current from the Arabian Sea. After the westward shifting of the Sub-Tropical High (STH) from the north of India, the strong divergence zone on its eastern edge contributed positively to the development of upward motion. Initially the convective systems moved towards the south and then southeastward following the steering current in the middle troposphere. Based on these analyses, the physical model of the sudden record heavy rainfall has been proposed and a comparison between the heavy rainfall in this case and one in China has been conducted.

关键词： monsoon circulation mesoscale systems heavy rainfall

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A Diagnostic Study of Heavy Rainfall in Karachi Due to Merging of a Mesoscale Low and a Diffused Tropical Depression during South Asian Summer Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第3期22卷 375-391页

作者： ghulam rasul Qamar-uz-Zaman CHAUDHRY 赵思雄曾庆存齐琳琳张高英 Meteorological Service of PakistanP.O.Box 1214 Islamabad-Pakistan Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Graduate SchoolChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100039 Meteorological Service of PakistanP.O.Box 1214 Islamabad-Pakistan Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

This paper presents the results of a diagnostic study of a typical case of very heavy rainfall during the South Asian summer monsoon when a mesoscale low in a desert climate merged with a diffused tropical depression. The former low was located over Pakistan's desert region and the latter depression originated over the Bay of Bengal. Surface and NCEP reanalysis data supported by satellite and radar images were incorporated in the diagnosis. The relationship between the heavy precipitation process and large-scale circulations such as monsoon trough, subtropical high, westerly jet, low level jet and water vapor transport were investigated to further understand the mechanism of this peculiar interaction. It was found that: (1) the mesoscale low developed as a result of cold air advection aloft from northern latitudes and strong convection over the region of humidity convergence on 24 July 2003 over the Indian Rajistan area. (2) On the same day, a low that formed over the Bay of Bengal was transformed into a monsoon depression and moved westward to the mesoscale low which existed over southwest India and the adjoining southeastern parts of Pakistan. (3) Initially, the mesoscale low received moisture supply from both the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea, whereas the Bay of Bengal maintained the continuous supply of moisture to the monsoon depression. (4) After the depression crossed central India, the Bay's moisture supply was cut off and the Arabian Sea became the-only source of moisture to both the closely located systems. On 27 July, both of the systems merged together and the merger resulted in a heavy downpour in the Karachi metropolitan and in its surroundings. (5) With the intensification as well as the southeastward extension of the subtropical high and the shift of the monsoon trough axis from southwest-west to northeast-east, the monsoon depression moved southwestward. In this situation, there existed a very favourable condition for a merger of the two

关键词： mesoscale low tropical depression heavy downpour cross-latitude influence

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Thermal Classification of Pakistan

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2011年第4期1卷 206-213页

作者： Maida Zahid ghulam rasul 不详

This research work is designed to carry out the annual and seasonal thermal classification of Pakistan to provide better understanding to all the stake holders like farmers and scientists etc for obtaining maximum crop yield. The data of Climatic Normal’s (1971-2000) has been used to calculate Thornthwaites’s Thermal efficiency index for thermal classification of Pakistan. The results of annual thermal classification reveals that Pakistan’s northern half experiences Tundra to Microthermal climate type and southern half experiences all types of Mesothermal to Megathermal climate type. Seasonal analysis showed large variations like in winters the whole country ranges from Microthermal to Frost Type of climate except the extremely southern parts of the country which have Mild Mesothermal climate. In spring the northern half of the country lies between Tundra to Microthermal climate and southern half from Mesothermal to Megathermal climate. During summer and monsoon majority of the regions in the country experience Megathermal except Northern areas which show Moderate Mesothermal to Mesothermal climate. The autumn season mostly have Mild Mesothermal to Tundra climate excluding southern half which showed Moderate Mesothermal to Mesothermal climate.

关键词： Evapotranspiration Thermal Efficiency Index Tundra and Megathermal

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Status of Stratospheric Ozone over Pakistan 1987-2008

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2010年第4期1卷 374-383页

作者： Maida Zahid ghulam rasul 不详

The ozone layer depletion and its harmful impact on living beings have been a greater concern of all the scientists all over the world. The aim of this paper is to reveal the current status of stratospheric ozone over Pakistan. The annual, monthly and seasonal analyses have been performed in order to check the status. The variation in total column of ozone has been observed during these analyses and decrease in total column of ozone has been seen in all the investigations from 1987-2008. The correlation coefficient for JRA forecasted data and observed ozone data is 0.6. Both the data sets show decline in ozone concentration. The total change calculated in annual depth of ozone is ?5.67 D.U and ?4.2 D.U in monthly depth of ozone. The seasonal analysis shows that the total change in ozone in summer is ?6.3 D.U, in spring ?10.5 D.U, in winter ?3.15 D.U and in autumn ?2.0 D.U. Maximum change in ozone thickness has been found in spring and minimum in autumn. The solar radiations, decrease in temperatures of stratosphere and carbon dioxide (CO2) play significant role in ozone layer depletion. According to the findings of this study solar radiations and carbon dioxide (CO2) are inversely proportional to the total column of ozone. The correlation coefficient for solar radiations and ozone on annual basis is 0.44 (R2 = 0.44) and on monthly basis is around 0.35 (R2 = 0.35). Therefore the more intense the solar radiations the more ozone layer thinning will occur. The correlation coefficient for ozone and carbon dioxide is around 0.3 (R2 = 0.3) during the study period. The decrease in stratospheric temperatures will cause the cooling of stratosphere which is ultimately responsible for ozone layer depletion. The total decrease analyzed in stratospheric temperatures during the study period is about ?1.3℃. It is observed that alarming rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is not only contributing to global warming in troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere.

关键词： Ozone Layer Depletion Stratosphere Greenhouse Gases GHG’s and Solar Radiation

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Agrometeorological wheat yield prediction in rainfed Potohar region of Pakistan

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Agricultural Sciences 2012年第2期3卷 170-177页

作者： Dildar Hussain Kazmi ghulam rasul Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad Pakistan

The reliable early estimates of production had always been the prime concerns of growers on one hand and planners as well as policy makers for import/export on the other hand. This study represents a linear regression model making use of meteorological parameters at critical stages of crop’s life cycle to predict the wheat yield about two months earlier than the harvesting. A statistical based software “Statistical Package for Social Sciences” (SPSS) and MS-excel were employed as working tools. Decadal (ten days) agrometeorological data for Rabi season (for the period 1993-2011) being observed at Regional Agromet Centre, Rawalpindi have been utilized. The parameters studied for correlation were mainly rainfall (amount and days), air temperature (minimum, maximum, mean), heat units (on phenological basis), relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, reference crop evapotran-spiration etc. Finally, minimum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall amount in January (tillering and stem extension phase) proved to be the reliable predictors for the final yield. The correlation coefficients for these parameters on individual basis resulted within the acceptable range where as in aggregate it remained 0.87, an optimistic value.

关键词： Potohar Plateau Wheat Yield Prediction Agrometeorological Parameters SPSS

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一次引发南亚大暴雨的季风低压结构、涡度与水汽收支分析

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气候与环境研究 2005年第3期10卷 526-542页

作者：孔期 ghulam rasul 赵思雄中国科学院大气物理研究所

对2003年夏季风期间,7月24～28日印度季风槽内季风低压发展西移与阿拉伯海中尺度低压合并引发南亚的一次大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,探讨了印度季风槽、季风低压的三维结构以及低压区域的涡度、水汽收支.揭示和确认了一些事实:1)印度季... 详细信息

对2003年夏季风期间,7月24～28日印度季风槽内季风低压发展西移与阿拉伯海中尺度低压合并引发南亚的一次大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,探讨了印度季风槽、季风低压的三维结构以及低压区域的涡度、水汽收支.揭示和确认了一些事实:1)印度季风槽区对流层中下层存在明显的风场切变,槽区高温高湿,为单一性质的热带气团,低层为对流不稳定,槽区对应正涡度区;2)季风低压是一较深厚系统.动力结构为低层正涡度,高层负涡度,低层辐合,高层辐散.其西移速度约500 km·d.季风低压北侧整层为深厚的东风,南侧在对流层中低层为西风,在高层为东风.热力结构在低层(700～800 hPa)间存在弱冷区,而中高层几乎为暖心结构.低压对应高湿区,低压中心西侧整层为相对湿度大值区;3)季风低压的发展过程中,低层的辐合场制造正涡度,促进低压的发展;4)低压区水汽强烈辐合,西边界输入量最大.在此研究工作的基础上,作者还比较了夏季风期间南亚印度季风槽和东亚梅雨锋系统的异同.

关键词：暴雨印度季风槽季风低压涡度收支水汽收支

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Comparative Study for ECHAM5 and SDSM in Downscaling Temperature for a Geo-Climatically Diversified Region, Pakistan

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Applied Mathematics 2014年第1期5卷 137-143页

作者： Dildar Hussain Kazmi ghulam rasul Jianping Li Suhail Babar Cheema Research & Development Division Pakistan Metrological Department Islamabad Pakistan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Pakistan is a country with diversified features in terms of geography and climate. It is an agriculture based country, mainly dependent on Indus water system. In Pakistan, there are loftyplateaus to the north and Arabian Sea in the south, while the interior portion is covered with plateaus or agriculture plains. For such a region, any attempt to monitor/analyze climatic data requires some more specific details. A statistical software “SDSM” is utilized for downscaling daily temperature data of Pakistan and the results generated are compared with the output of a recommended model “ECHAM5”. After analysis, it revealed that comparatively SDSM produced much better results. The outputs from both the approaches were correlated with the observed data;SDSM-observed gave values for correlation coefficient R2 in the range of 81% - 94% whereas ECHAM5-observed produced 73% - 87% for different meteorological stations of Pakistan. On the basis of this study, SDSM can be recommended for future scenario generation of temperature data of Pakistan as well.

关键词： Dynamic Statistical Future Scenario Generation

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Inhibition of Embryonic Stem Cell Differentiation by Gold Nanoparticles

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Journal of Pharmacy and Pharmacology 2014年第4期2卷 243-256页

作者： Sumi Dinda Sarah rasul Chaudhry Naimisha Reddy Beeravolu Christina McKee ghulam rasulChaudhry School of Health Sciences Oakland University Rochester 48309 USA Oakland University-William Beaumont Institute for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine Oakland University Rochester 48309USA Department of Biological Sciences Oakland University Rochester 48309 USA

Nanomaterials are attractive for use in technological advancements because of their small size and unique properties. As a result, there has been a rapid increase in the production and applications of nanomaterials. Nanoparticles like carbon, cadmium and silver are highly toxic and are known to cause oxidative stress. However, there are conflicting reports regarding the toxicity of gold nanoparticles. We have investigated the effects of gold nanoparticles on the growth and differentiation of ESCs （embryonic stem cells）. Analysis of ESCs treated with gold nanoparticles revealed a biphasic growth response. Higher concentrations （〉 20 ~tg/mL） of gold nanoparticles inhibited growth, whereas the lower concentrations （〈 10 lag/mL） stimulated ESC proliferation. Interestingly, ESC pluripotency was not affected by gold nanoparticles as demonstrated by the near normal expression of the specific pluripotent marker, Oct 4, and their differentiation potential. Inhibition of differentiation of both ESCs and embryoid bodies by gold nanoparticles suggest that they may pose developmental risks. Further analysis by transmission electron microscopy and atomic absorption spectroscopy revealed that gold nanoparticles were actively taken up by ESCs in a concentration dependent manner. These observations suggest that exposure to gold nanoparticles may cause embryotoxicity or effect early childhood development.

关键词： Nanomaterials embryotoxicity pluripotency self-renewal Oct 4

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阿克苏地区冰雹时空变化和灾害特征

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干旱区研究 2015年第1期32卷 108-115页

作者：买合皮热提.吾拉木热苏力.阿不拉玉苏甫.买买提王红岩阿不力米提江.阿布力克木新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院新疆乌鲁木齐830054 新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室新疆乌鲁木齐830002 新疆维吾尔自治区气象台新疆乌鲁木齐830002

选取阿克苏地区10个气象站44 a逐个降雹过程资料和政府减灾部门34 a的灾情信息,对该地区降雹和受灾时空变化特征、降雹强度、活动规律及致灾情况进行研究。结果表明:该地区东西部各存在1个多雹中心,降雹以周期短、强季节性特征为主,多... 详细信息

选取阿克苏地区10个气象站44 a逐个降雹过程资料和政府减灾部门34 a的灾情信息,对该地区降雹和受灾时空变化特征、降雹强度、活动规律及致灾情况进行研究。结果表明:该地区东西部各存在1个多雹中心,降雹以周期短、强季节性特征为主,多数县市中等以上强度降雹占降雹频次的75%以上,雹灾呈高发、强发的态势。位于西部的阿瓦提、阿克苏、温宿和位于东部的沙雅、新和等县市受灾最严重,雹灾空间分布特征与降雹强度、路径、出现季节和地域特征等密切相关,建议相关部门积极开展因地制宜的防雹业务,减少该地区农业雹灾损失。

关键词：冰雹灾害时空变化强度阿克苏新疆

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