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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 362-365页

作者： gerry f.killeen School of Biological Earth&Environmental Sciencesand Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College CorkIreland

Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)epidemic trajectories include China,Korea,Japan,Taiwan,New Zealand and Australia.However,the United States and many hard-hit European countries,like Ireland,Italy,Spain,france and the United Kingdom,currently appear content to merely flatten the curve of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with.Here I present a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that are accessible to non-specialists and explain why preferable crush the curve strategies,to eliminate transmission within months,would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort relative to the tipping point targeted by flatten the curve strategies,which allow epidemics to persist at supposedly steady,manageable levels for years,decades or even indefinitely.

关键词： Coronavirus COVID SARS2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 Model Epidemiology Outbreak Zoonosis Emerging infection

Why lockdown?Why national unity?Why global solidarity?Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers,health professionals,journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 442-458页

作者： gerry f.killeen Samson S.Kiware Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences Department Ifakara Health InstituteIfakaraMorogoroUnited Republic of Tanzania School of Biological Earth&Environmental Sciences and Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College CorkIreland

As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment,elimination and exclusion strategies required to tackle it.Simplified arithmetic models of COVID-19 transmission,control and elimination are presented in user-friendly Shiny and Excel formats that allow non-specialists to explore,query,critique and understand the containment decisions facing their country and the world at large.Although the predictive model is broadly applicable,the simulations presented are based on parameter values representative of the United Republic of Tanzania,which is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response to avert a national catastrophe.The predictions of these models illustrate(1)why ambitious lock-down interventions to crush the curve represent the only realistic way for individual countries to contain their national-level epidemics before they turn into outright catastrophes,(2)why these need to be implemented so early,so stringently and for such extended periods,(3)why high prevalence of other pathogens causing similar symptoms to mild COVID-19 precludes the use of contact tracing as a substitute for lock down interventions to contain and eliminate epidemics,(4)why partial containment strategies intended to merely flatten the curve,by maintaining epidemics at manageably low levels,are grossly unrealistic,and(5)why local elimination may only be sustained after lock down ends if imported cases are comprehensively excluded,so international co-operation to conditionally re-open trade and travel between countries certified as free of COVID-19 represents the best strategy for motivating progress towards pandemic eradication at global level.The three sequential goals that every country needs to emphatically embrace are contain,eliminate and exclude.As recently emphasized by the World Health Organization,success will require widespread genuine national unity and unprecedented global solidarity.

关键词： Coronavirus COVID-19 SARS2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 Model Epidemiology Outbreak Zoonosis Emerging infection

Long, thin transmission chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 may go undetected for several weeks at low to moderate reproduction numbers: Implications for containment and elimination strategy

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 474-489页

作者： gerry f.killeen Patricia M.Kearney Ivan J.Perry Niall Conroy School of Biological Earth&Environmental SciencesUniversity College CorkCorkIreland Environmental Research Institute University College CorkCorkIreland School of Public Health University College CorkCorkIreland Wide Bay Public Health Unit QueenslandAustralia faculty of Medicine University of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 1(SARS-CoV-1)infections almost always caused overt symptoms,so effective case and contact management enabled its effective eradication within months.However,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)usually causes only mild symptoms,so transmission chains may grow to include several individuals before at least one index case becomes ill enough to self-report for diagnosis and care.Here,simple mathematical models were developed to evaluate the implications of delayed index case detection for retrospective contact tracing and management responses.Specifically,these simulations illustrate how:(1)Contact tracing and management may effectively contain most but not all large SARS-CoV-2 clusters arising at foci with high reproduction numbers because rapidly expanding transmission chains ensure at least one overtly symptomatic index case occurs within two viral generations a week or less apart.(2)However,lower reproduction numbers give rise to thinner transmission chains extending through longer sequences of non-reporting asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic individuals,often spanning three or more viral generations(2 weeks of transmission)before an overtly symptomatic index case occurs.(3)Consequently,it is not always possible to fully trace and contain such long,thin transmission chains,so the community transmission they give rise to is underrepresented in surveillance data.(4)Wherever surveillance systems are weak and/or transmission proceeds within population groups with lower rates of overt clinical symptoms and/or self-reporting,case and contact management effectiveness may be more severely limited,even at the higher reproduction numbers associated with larger outbreaks.(5)Because passive surveillance platforms may be especially slow to detect the thinner transmission chains that occur at low reproduction numbers,establishing satisfactory confidence of elimination may require that no confirmed cases are detected for two full months,throughout which presump

关键词： Coronavirus COVID SARS2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 Model Epidemiology Outbreak Case and contact management

flash flood modeling in the data-poor basin:A case study in Matina River Basin

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2021年第2期10卷 87-95页

作者： Rhonalyn V.Macalalad Shichao Xu Roy A.Badilla Socrates f.Paat Bema C.Tajones Yangbo Chen gerry Bagtasa Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services AdministrationDepartment of Science and TechnologyQuezon CityPhilippines School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology University of the PhilippinesQuezon CityPhilippines

forecasting flooding hazards is a very effective non-engineering measure for flood control.Presently,the commonly used forecasting method in simulating flash flood events is through a watershed hydrological model.Many Asia-Pacific countries like the Philippines are prone to frequent hydrometeorological hazards such as tropical cyclones,resulting in frequent heavy rainfall events.However,most rivers in the many basins lack water flow observation data,which makes it challenging to use lumped and data-driven models for flash flood forecasting.With the continuous progress of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques,the physically-based distributed hydrological model(PBDHMs)has rapidly advanced.PBDHMs can directly determine the model parameters according to the underlying surface characteristics from remotely-sensed data,which makes it possible for flood forecasting in areas with little to virtually no data.In this study,the Matina River basin in Davao City was selected as a case study in simulating a small data-poor basin in the region.The Liuxihe model was used to formulate a forecasting scheme and simulated the past flash flood events.The results show that there is a good correspondence between the past heavy rainfall events and their corresponding simulated river discharges.The results conform to the hydrological regularities,which can be used for flood forecasting and can serve as a baseline for the development of a flood forecasting system in the rivers of Davao City and elsewhere.

关键词： Typhoon flash flood Liuxihe model

肠膜蛋白粉对早期断奶仔猪生产性能及消化道的影响

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动物营养学报 2001年第2期13卷 15-19页

作者：高欣马秋刚计成 Gu Shao chen gerry Keller 中国农业大学动物科技学院北京100094 Nutra-flo'Company

90头断奶仔猪(26～29日龄)根据体重随机分为6个处理 ,每个处理3个初始体重水平。试验前3周分别在基础日粮中添加如下6种成分 :0 %AP950(血浆蛋白粉) +0 %DPS(DriedPorcineSaluble ,肠膜蛋白粉)(对照)、2.5 %AP950、2.5 %DPS50、3.5 %DP... 详细信息

90头断奶仔猪(26～29日龄)根据体重随机分为6个处理 ,每个处理3个初始体重水平。试验前3周分别在基础日粮中添加如下6种成分 :0 %AP950(血浆蛋白粉) +0 %DPS(DriedPorcineSaluble ,肠膜蛋白粉)(对照)、2.5 %AP950、2.5 %DPS50、3.5 %DPS50、2.5 %AP950 +2.5 %DPS50和5 %DPS30 ;试验后两周 ,所有处理饲喂普通市售生长猪日粮。各处理日粮中的蛋白质、代谢能、赖氨酸、乳糖和钠浓度均在相同或相近水平上。在试验的第14天 ,从每个处理中随机抽取3头(共18头)试猪屠宰测定其肠绒毛高度、腺窝深度和消化道内胰蛋白酶、糜蛋白酶、淀粉酶、脂肪酶的活性。结果表明 :1.与对照组相比 ,试验前3周日粮中添加2.5 %AP950、2.5 %DPS50、3.5 %DPS50、2.5 %DPS50 +2.5 %AP950和5 %DPS30分别提高日采食量37.0 %、35.9 %、34.8%、37.4 %和41.9 % ;提高日增重69.5 %、52.7 %、81.7 %、61.8 %和82.4 % ;改善饲料转化率18.9 %、11.2 %、25.7 %、15.0 %和21.8 % ;降低腹泻指数42.2 %、20.4 %、40.9 %、34.8 %和37.8 %。2.试验后两周各处理间差异不显著 ,但添加2.5 %DPS50 +2.5 %AP950处理的日采食量和日增重较低。3.对照组酶活性低于其它各组 ,但各处理间消化道酶活性差异不显著。4.

关键词：早期断奶仔猪蛋白质营养肠膜蛋白粉生产性能消化道形态消化酶活性

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Observatory science with eXTP

作者： (英)格里·汤普森(gerry Thompson) (英)大卫·W. 梅洛(David W. Mellor)

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2019年第2期62卷 97-138页

作者： Jean J.M.in 't Zand Enrico Bozzo JinLu Qu Xiang-Dong Li Lorenzo Amati Yang Chen Immacolata Donnarumma Victor Doroshenko Stephen A.Drake Margarita Hernanz Peter A.Jenke Thomas J.Maccarone Simin Mahmoodifar Domitilla de Martino Alessandra De Rosa Elena M.Rossi Antonia Rowlinson Gloria Sala Giulia Stratta Thomas M.Tauris Joern Wilms Xuefeng Wu Ping Zhou Iván Agudo Diego Altamirano Jean-Luc Atteia Nils A.andersson M.Cristina Baglio David R.Ballantyne Altan Baykal Ehud Behar Tomaso Belloni Sudip Bhattacharyya Stefano Bianchi Anna Bilous Pere Blay Joao Braga Sφren Brandt Edward f.Brown Niccolo Bucciantini Luciano Burderi Edward M.Cackett Riccardo Campana Sergio Campana Piergiorgio Casella Yuri Cavecchi frank Chambers Liang Chen Yu-Peng Chen Jér?me Chenevez Maria Chernyakova ChiChuan Jin Riccardo Ciolfi Elisa Costantini Andrew Cumming Antonino D'Aì Zi-Gao Dai filippo D'Ammando Massimiliano De Pasquale Nathalie Degenaar Melania Del Santo Valerio D'Elia Tiziana Di Salvo gerry Doyle Maurizio falanga XiLong fan Robert D.ferdman Marco feroci federico fraschetti Duncan K.Galloway Angelo f.Gambino Poshak Gandhi MingYu Ge Bruce Gendre Ramandeep Gill Diego G?tz Christian Gouiffès Paola Grandi Jonathan Granot Manuel Güdel Alexander Heger Craig O.Heinke Jeroen Homan Rosario Iaria Kazushi Iwasawa Luca Izzo Long Ji Peter G.Jonker Jordi José Jelle S.Kaastra Emrah Kalemci Oleg Kargaltsev Nobuyuki Kawai Laurens Keek Stefanie Komossa Ingo Kreykenbohm Lucien Kuiper Devaky Kunneriath Gang Li En-Wei Liang Manuel Linares francesco Longo fangJun Lu Alexander A.Lutovinov Denys Malyshev Julien Malzac Antonios Manousakis Ian McHardy Missagh Mehdipour YunPeng Men Mariano Méndez Roberto P.Mignani Romana Mikusincova M.Coleman Miller Giovanni Miniutti Christian Motch Joonas Nättilä Emanuele Nardini Torsten Neubert Paul T.O'Brien Mauro Orlandini Julian P.Osborne Luigi Pacciani Stéphane Paltani Maurizio Paolillo Iossif E.Papadakis Biswajit Paul Alberto Pellizzoni Uria Peretz Miguel A.Pérez Torres Emanuele Perinati Chanda Prescod-Weinstein Pablo Reig SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research Department of Astronomy University of Geneva Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics Institute of High Energy PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences School of Astronomy and Space Science Nanjing University INAf-IASf Bologna ASI Via del Politecnico snc INAf-Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologie Spaziali Institut für Astronomie und Astrophysik Tübingen Universit?t Tübingen NASA Goddard Space flight Center ICREA&Institute of Space Sciences(IEEC-CSIC) Campus UABCarrer de Can Magrans CSPAR SPA University of Alabama in Huntsville Department of Physics Texas Tech University INAf Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte Leiden Observatory Leiden University Anton Pannekoek Institute University of Amsterdam ASTRON Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya(UPC-IEEC) Universitádegli Studi di Urbino‘Carlo Bo’ Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie Dr.Karl-Remeis-Sternwarte and Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics(ECAP) Friedrich Alexander Universit?t Erlangen-Nurnberg Purple Mountain Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Instituto de Astrofysíca de Andalucia-CSIC Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Southampton IRAP Universitéde ToulouseCNRSUPSCNES Mathematical Sciences and STAG Research Centre University of Southampton New York University Abu Dhabi Center for Relativistic Astrophysics School of PhysicsGeorgia Institute of Technology Physics Department Middle East Technical University Department of Physics Technion-Israel Institute of Technology INAf Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera Tata Institute of fundamental Research Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica Universitàdegli Studi Roma Tre Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais-INPE National Space Institute Technical University of Denmark(DTU Space) Department of Physics and Astronomy Michigan State University INAf Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri Dipartimento di fisica Universitádegli Studi di Cagliari Department of Physics and A

In this White Paper we present the potential of the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry(eXTP) mission for studies related to Observatory Science targets. These include flaring stars, supernova remnants, accreting white dwarfs, low and high mass X-ray binaries, radio quiet and radio loud active galactic nuclei, tidal disruption events, and gamma-ray bursts. eXTP will be excellently suited to study one common aspect of these objects: their often transient nature. Developed by an international Consortium led by the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, the eXTP mission is expected to be launched in the mid 2020s.

关键词： space research in struments nuclear astrophysics flare stars accretion and accretion disks mass loss and stellar winds cataclysmic binaries X-ray binaries supernova remnants active galactic nuclei X-ray bursts gamma-ray bursts gravitational waves