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Estimation of meteorological drought indices based on AgMERRA precipitation data and station-observed precipitation data

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Journal of Arid Land 2017年第6期9卷 797-809页

作者： Nasrin SALEHNIA Amin ALIZADEH Hossein SANAEINEJAD Mohammad BANNAYAN Azar ZARRIN gerrit hoogenboom Faculty of Agriculture Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad *** Iran Department of Geography Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad *** Iran Institute for Sustainable Food System University of Florida Gainesville 110570 USA

Meteorological drought is a natural hazard that can occur under all climatic regimes. Monitoring the drought is a vital and important part of predicting and analyzing drought impacts. Because no single index can represent all facets of meteorological drought, we took a multi-index approach for drought monitoring in this study. We assessed the ability of eight precipitation-based drought indices（SPI（Standardized Precipitation Index）, PNI（Percent of Normal Index）, DI（Deciles index）, EDI（Effective drought index）, CZI（China-Z index）, MCZI（Modified CZI）, RAI（Rainfall Anomaly Index）, and ZSI（Z-score Index）） calculated from the station-observed precipitation data and the Ag MERRA gridded precipitation data to assess historical drought events during the period 1987–2010 for the Kashafrood Basin of Iran. We also presented the Degree of Dryness Index（DDI） for comparing the intensities of different drought categories in each year of the study period（1987–2010）. In general, the correlations among drought indices calculated from the Ag MERRA precipitation data were higher than those derived from the station-observed precipitation data. All indices indicated the most severe droughts for the study period occurred in 2001 and 2008. Regardless of data input source, SPI, PNI, and DI were highly inter-correlated（R^2=0.99）. Furthermore, the higher correlations（R^2=0.99） were also found between CZI and MCZI, and between ZSI and RAI. All indices were able to track drought intensity, but EDI and RAI showed higher DDI values compared with the other indices. Based on the strong correlation among drought indices derived from the Ag MERRA precipitation data and from the station-observed precipitation data, we suggest that the Ag MERRA precipitation data can be accepted to fill the gaps existed in the station-observed precipitation data in future studies in Iran. In addition, if tested by station-observed precipitation data, the Ag MERRA precipitation data may be used for the data-lacking area

关键词： severe drought degree of dryness MDM(Meteorological Drought Monitoring) software precipitation intensity Middle East

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DSSAT作物模型的统计和图形校验方法

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植物营养与肥料学报 2012年第5期18卷 1064-1072页

作者：杨靖民杨靖一 hoogenboom gerrit 吉林农业大学资源与环境学院吉林长春130118 Greenhouse & Processing Crops Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada AgWeatherNet Program WashingtonState University

本文以玉米,大豆,马铃薯和冬小麦试验为例,详细讨论了DSSAT模型的统计校验和图形校验方法及其支持软件EasyGrapher的应用。结果指出:R2不是理想的模型校验统计,因为它是测量线性回归y=α+βx+ε的拟合度,其随机误差ε建立在正态性、相... 详细信息

本文以玉米,大豆,马铃薯和冬小麦试验为例,详细讨论了DSSAT模型的统计校验和图形校验方法及其支持软件EasyGrapher的应用。结果指出:R2不是理想的模型校验统计,因为它是测量线性回归y=α+βx+ε的拟合度,其随机误差ε建立在正态性、相互独立和方差同质的假设之上。模型校验主要是检验残差di=yi-xi(y为测量值,x为模拟值),不是估计回归系数α、β。RMSE、E、EF和d都是比较好的校验模型残差的统计量,它们不需要遵循回归模型的基本假设,统计量的物理意义明确,大样本容量下统计校验更为可靠。图形校验是模型校验必不可少的辅助工具,当有测量数据时,时间序列和残差校验图形是两种最基本的图形校验方法;没有测量数据,模拟图形仍然能够检验模型输出之间或与时间的动态关系,辨析模拟误差或者错误。应用EasyGrapher软件可以快速进行DSSAT模型的图形校验和统计校验。

关键词： DSSAT模型 EasyGrapher 软件统计校验图形校验

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Optimizing Parameters of CSM-CERES-Maize Model to Improve Simulation Performance of Maize Growth and Nitrogen Uptake in Northeast China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2012年第11期11卷 1898-1913页

作者： LIU Hai-long YANG Jing-yi HE Ping BAI You-lu JIN Ji-yun Craig F Drury ZHU Ye-ping YANGXue-ming LI Wen-juan XIE Jia-gui YANG Jing-min gerrit hoogenboom Agricultural Information'Institute Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences~Key Laboratory of Agri-lnformation Service Technology Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081 P.R. China Greenhouse and Processing Crops Research Centre Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada Ontario NOR 1GO Canada Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences~Key Laboratory of Crop Nutrition and Fertilization Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081 P.R.China Agricultural Environment and Resources Research Center Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences Changchun 130124 P.R.China College of Resource & Environment Sciences Jilin Agricultural University Changehun 130118 P.R.China AgWeatherNet Washington State University WA 99350-8694 USA

Crop models can be useful tools ibr optimizing fertilizer management for a targeted crop yield while minimizing nutrient losses. In this paper, the parameters of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer （DSSAT）-CERES-Maize were optimized using a new method to provide a better simulation of maize （Zea mays L.） growth and N upfake in response to different nitrogen application rates. Field data were collected from a 5 yr field experiment （2006-2010） on a Black soil （Typic hapludoll） in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China. After cultivar calibration, the CERES-Maize model was able to simulate aboveground biomass and crop yield of in the evaluation data set （n-RMSE=5.0-14.6%）, but the model still over-estimated aboveground N uptake （i.e., with E values from -4.4 to -21.3 kg N ha-~）. By analyzing DSSAT equation, N stress coefficient for changes in concentration with growth stage （CTCNP2） is related to N uptake. Further sensitivity analysis of the CTCNP2 showed that the DSSAT model simulated maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after the CTCNP2 coefficient was adjusted to the field site condition. The results indicated that in addition to calibrating 6 coefficients of maize cultivars, radiation use efficiency （RUE）, growing degree days for emergence （GDDE）, N stress coefficient, CTCNP2, and soil fertility factor （SLPF） also need to be calibrated in order to simulate aboveground biomass, yield and N uptake correctly. Independent validation was conducted using 2008-2010 experiments and the good agreement between the simulated and the measured results indicates that the DSSAT CERES-Maize model could be a useful tool for predicting maize production in Northeast China.

关键词： DSSAT CERES-Maize model maize growth simulation model evaluation fertilizer N experiment

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应用DSSAT模型对吉林省黑土玉米最佳栽培技术的模拟和校验研究 Ⅰ.模型品种参数校验和产量的敏感性分析

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土壤学报 2011年第2期48卷 366-374页

作者：杨靖民刘金华窦森杨靖一 gerrit hoogenboom 吉林农业大学资源与环境学院长春130118 Greenhouse & Processing Crops Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering The University of Georgia

目前，应用农业模型去寻找改进农业生态系统的最佳农艺措施被认为是比单一的田间试验更为有效的途径之一。在应用和引进模型当中，一个很关键的环节是确定模型的输入参数对产量和土壤养分的敏感性，因为在一个地区的敏感性并不能保证在... 详细信息

目前，应用农业模型去寻找改进农业生态系统的最佳农艺措施被认为是比单一的田间试验更为有效的途径之一。在应用和引进模型当中，一个很关键的环节是确定模型的输入参数对产量和土壤养分的敏感性，因为在一个地区的敏感性并不能保证在其他地区具有同样的影响。正因为如此，本文对农业技术转化决策系统（DSSAT）模型的农业管理参数进行敏感性分析。在吉林省黑土（ollisols）地区，于2008年田间试验条件下进行玉米（Zea mays L．）生长模拟（叶面积指数，地上干物质，籽粒重量），应用当地平均产量和生长期对玉米品种参数进行校验。模拟结果的综合分析表明：玉米提前播种8～10d比正常播种减产大约10％；玉米产量随播种密度呈现抛物线趋势，既当低密度下，产量曲线递增，但是当密度大于5株m^-2时，产量增加平缓；产量和氮肥施用量呈典型的效应递减曲线，最佳施氮量为200～240kg hm^-2；最佳追肥时间为6月15日至6月28日。本研究证明DSSAT模型能够用于中国其他地区的玉米生长模拟，并且，本研究建立的敏感性分析方法能够用于其他作物，如水稻和小麦。进一步的研究需要包括测试土壤有机碳氮对作物生长管理参数的敏感性。

关键词： DSSAT 玉米模拟敏感性分析产量最佳施肥量

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OILCROP-SUN Model Relevance for Evaluation of Nitrogen Management of Sunflower Hybrids in Sargodha, Punjab

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American Journal of Plant Sciences 2013年第9期4卷 1731-1735页

作者： Ashfaq Ahmad Amjed Ali Tasneem Khaliq Syed Aftab Wajid Zafar Iqbal Muhammad Ibrahim Hafiz Muhammad Rashad Javeed gerrit hoogenboom Agro-Climatology Lab University of Agriculture Faisalabad Pakistan College of Agriculture D. G. Khan Pakistan NFC Institute of Engineering and Technology Multan Pakistan University College of Agriculture University of Sargodha Sargodha Pakistan Washington State University Pullman USA.

The experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of crop system (DSSAT) OILCROP-SUN model simulating growth & development and achene yield of sunflower hybrids in response to nitrogen under irrigated conditions in semi arid environment, Sargodha, Punjab. The model was evaluated with observed data collected in trials which were conducted during spring season in 2010 and 2011 in Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan. Split plot design was used in layout of experiment with three replications. The hybrids (Hysun-33 & S-278) and N levels (0, 75, 150 and 225 ***-1) were allotted in main and sub plots, respectively. The OILCROP-SUN model showed that the model was able to simulate growth and yield of sunflower with an average of 10.44 error% between observed and simulated achene yield (AY). The results of simulation analysis indicated that nitrogen rate of 150 ***-1 (N3) produced the highest yield as compared to other treatments. Furthermore, the economic analysis through mean Gini Dominance also showed the dominance of this treatment compared to other treatment combinations. Thus management strategy consisting?of treatment 150 ***-1 was the best for high yield of sunflower hybrids.

关键词： Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer Nitrogen Achene Yield Crop Modeling

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农业气象学在作物生产模拟及其应用中的作用

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浙江气象 2001年第4期22卷 43-47页

作者： gerrit hoogenboom 苏高利邓芳萍美国佐治亚州大学生物与农业工程系

就作物模拟模型及其应用 ,以及气象因子在这些模拟应用中的重要性作了综合论述。为了说明气象和气候变率对作物生产的影响 ,农业气象要素 (包括最高和最低气温、太阳辐射及降水量 )被当作作物模拟模型的基本输入因子。多数作物模型使用... 详细信息

就作物模拟模型及其应用 ,以及气象因子在这些模拟应用中的重要性作了综合论述。为了说明气象和气候变率对作物生产的影响 ,农业气象要素 (包括最高和最低气温、太阳辐射及降水量 )被当作作物模拟模型的基本输入因子。多数作物模型使用的气象资料为逐日值 ,因为很多地区没有更小时间尺度的观测资料。气象及其它输入数据均采用标准文件格式 ,这有利于数据在不同模型中使用。如果输入因子缺少或数据丢失、无效 ,将会影响到作物模型模拟的准确性。利用天气发生器随机生成的逐日气象数据可以解决数据丢失或序列较短的问题。当然 ,模拟时要尽可能采用气象观测资料 ,以确保作物产量模拟值的准确性 ,这在热带地区显得尤其重要。许多作物模型用来进行产量预报和决策管理 ,作物产量及其相关变量的预测变率以及自然资源的利用主要由天气气候条件的短期与长期变化所致。模型的产品可用来制定相应的管理决策 ,提供给农户和其他关注农业生产的人们。作物模型也广泛应用于气候变化对农业生产和粮食安全性的影响研究。最近 ,作物模型又用于气候变率和厄尔尼诺与南方涛动 (ENSO)的影响研究。随着计算机的普及 ,农场主、农业咨询人员以及政策制定、决策者等模型的使用者也将越来越多。

关键词：作物模型决策支撑系统气候变率气候变化战略应用战术应用产量预报

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Effects of Conservation Agriculture on Land and Water Productivity in Yellow River Basin, China

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International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2010年第2期3卷 5-17,I0001页

作者： Vinay Nangia Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad Du Jiantao Yan Changrong gerrit hoogenboom Mei Xurong He Wenqing Liu Shuang Liu Qin Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada OttawaONCanada CSIRO Land and WaterDivision CanberraACT2601Australia Institute of Environmental and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural ScienceBeijing 100081China Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering University of GeorgiaGriffinGAUSA

In the dryland regions of North China,water is the limiting factor for rainfed crop *** agriculture(featuring reduced or zero tillage,mulching,crop rotations and cover crops)has been proposed to improve soil and water conservation and enhance yields in these *** agriculture systems typically result in increased crop water availability and agro-ecosystem productivity,and reduced soil *** evaluate the potential of conservation agriculture to improve soil water balance and agricultural productivity,the DSSAT crop model was calibrated using the data of a field experiment in Shouyang County in the semi-arid northeastern part of the Yellow River *** average annual precipitation at the site is 472 mm,75%of which falls during the growing *** site had a maize-fallow-maize *** from two crop seasons(2005 and 2006)and four treatments for calibration and analysis were *** treatments were:conventional tillage(CT),no-till with straw mulching(NTSM),all-straw incorporated(ASRT)and one-third residue left on the surface with no-till(RRT).The calibration results gave satisfactory agreement between field observed and model predicted values for crop yield for all treatments except RRT treatment,and for soil water content of different layers in the 150 cm soil profile for all *** difference between observed and predicted values was in the range of 3%-25%for maize yield and RMSE was in the range of 0.03-0.06 cm^(3)/cm^(3) for soil water content measured periodically each cropping *** these results are encouraging,more rigorous calibration and independent model evaluation are warranted prior to making recommendations based on model ***-term simulations(1995-2004)were conducted for three of the treatments using the calibrated *** NTSM and ASRT treatments had similar or higher yields(by up to 36%),higher crop water productivity by up to 28%and reduced runoff of up to 93%or 43 mm comp

关键词： tillage conservative agriculture soil and water conservation mulch residues CERES model DSSAT model

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基于DSSAT模型的吉林省黑土作物-土壤氮循环和土壤有机碳平衡

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应用生态学报 2011年第8期22卷 2075-2083页

作者：杨靖民窦森杨靖一 gerrit hoogenboom 姜旭张忠庆姜洪威贾丽慧吉林农业大学资源与环境学院长春130118 Greenhouse & Processing Crops Research Centre Agriculture and Agri-Food AgWeatherNet Program Washington State UniversityProsserusa993508694

应用DSSAT模型中的CERES-Maize作物模型和Century土壤模型,分析了作物管理参数、施肥量、土壤初始氮含量和作物桔杆还田对吉林省黑土地区玉米生长、氮循环以及有机碳氮生态平衡的影响.结果表明:在玉米目标产量为12000～***-2条件下,最... 详细信息

应用DSSAT模型中的CERES-Maize作物模型和Century土壤模型,分析了作物管理参数、施肥量、土壤初始氮含量和作物桔杆还田对吉林省黑土地区玉米生长、氮循环以及有机碳氮生态平衡的影响.结果表明:在玉米目标产量为12000～***-2条件下,最佳施氮肥量为200～***-2.在该氮肥用量下,玉米地上氮吸收量为250～***-2,其中,120～***-2来自土壤,130～***-2来自肥料;提高氮肥用量(250～***-2)将导致土壤残留氮明显增加(63～***-2);延迟追肥时间同样导致土壤残留氮增加;当玉米秸杆还田量超过***-2时,模拟的土壤活性有机碳、氮可以维持当年的供需平衡.建议在吉林省中部地区黑土玉米带,化肥施氮量控制在200～***-2,适时追肥,秸杆还田量在***-2以上,以确保高产和维持土壤养分生态平衡.

关键词： DSSAT 模型土壤氮循环敏感性分析作物氮吸收

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