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Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass, a case study in Taihe County of china

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Journal of geographical sciences 2017年第2期27卷 205-222页

作者： WU Zhuo dai Erfu ge quansheng XI Weimin WANG Xiaofan Key Laboratory of Land surface Pattern and simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and NaturalResources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Department of Biological and Health sciences Texas A&M University Kingsville Texas 78363 USA Key Laboratory of Land Use Ministry of Land and Resources China Land-Surveying and Planning InstituteBeijing 100035 China

Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change（ABM/LUCC）, an ecosystem process model（PnET-Ⅱ）, and a forest dynamic landscape model（LANDIs-Ⅱ） to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass（AGB） which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern china, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that：（1） land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County.（2） Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7%（RCP2.6 ＋ land use）, 57.2%（RCP4.5 ＋ land use）, and 56.9%（RCP8.5 ＋ land use） by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance.（3） The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function,and developing measures for sustainable forest management.

关键词： RCPs plantation forest aboveground biomass ABM LANDIs-Ⅱ Taihe County

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Urban Green space, Uneven Development and Accessibility: A Case of Dalian′s Xigang District

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chinese geographical science 2015年第5期25卷 644-656页

作者： YANG Jun LI Chuang LI Yuechen XI Jianhao ge quansheng LI Xueming Liaoning Key Laboratory of Physical geography and geomatics Liaoning Normal University institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study examines the socio-spatial context of uneven development and the residential accessibility of green space in Dalian of Liaoning Province, china. The social fairness was analyzed with a community scale as the basis. We combined social scientific methods with a GIs method using a behavior accessibility model from the perspectives of fairness of urban green space allocation based on social geography, geographic information science, management science and many other related discipline theories. The results show that: 1) Most of the urban green space distribution presents an unbalanced phenomenon, and it does not match with the population distribution; 2) We found some differences in the accessibility of the population with different attributes and opportunities to use and enjoy the urban green spaces, mainly due to: the dual social and spatial attributes of the residents and the serious stratum differentiation generated were the internal causes; the residential space differentiation and the pursuit of economic and real estate development were the direct causes; and unreasonable planning, in regard to the fact that government policies did not give consideration to efficiency and fairness, was also an important factor.

关键词： behavior accessibility fairness of green space behavior accessibility model Xigang District of Dalian GIs

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NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of china to climate change in the past and future

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Journal of geographical sciences 2017年第2期27卷 131-142页

作者： YUAN Quanzhi WU shaohong dai Erfu ZHAO Dongsheng REN Ping ZHANG Xueru Key Lab of Land resources Evaluation and Monitoring in southwest Ministry of Education Sichuan NormalUniversity Chengdu 610068 China institute of geography and resources science Sichuan Normal University Chengdu 610101 China institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research CAS Beijing 100101 China Key Laboratory of Land surface Pattern and simulation CAS Beijing 100104 China Chongqing Jiaotong University Chongqing 400074 China

Using the Integrated Biosphere simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of china＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and in the future 35 years（2016–2050）. Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of china and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of china.

关键词： climate change vulnerability potential vegetation net primary productivity IBIs china

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Primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in china

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chinese Journal of Population,resources and Environment 2013年第4期11卷 283-287页

作者： Yiqiang Guo Jingyun Zheng quansheng ge shunbing Wang Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Ministry of Land and Resources institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research CAS The Administrative Center for china's Agenda 21

Climate change is one of the focuses to mitigate greenhouse effect and reduce carbon dioxide ***,the paper summarizes on the carbon dioxide emission factors and methods suitable to the situation in ***,it analyzes the primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions during the period between 1995 and 2005 from different fossil fuels and different *** trend of primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from 1995 to 2005 is"first decreasing and later increasing."seven regions-Liaoning,shanxi,Hebei,shandong,Henan,and Jiangsu-and most of the provinces(cities or regions)were found to have similar trends regarding total carbon dioxide emissions in *** annual carbon dioxide emissions and the growth ratio of these seven regions are much higher compared to those of the other 24 provinces(cities or regions).Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions to reduce carbon dioxide.

关键词： primary energy carbon dioxide emissions

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植物始花期对气候变化响应的激素调控机理研究进展

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地理科学进展 2019年第7期38卷 1045-1055页

作者：张湜溪戴君虎葛全胜中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049

植物物候对气候变化的响应非常敏感,是指示全球变化对生态系统影响的重要证据。其中植物花期变化影响植物繁殖与进化,具有重要意义。大量研究表明,随着全球气候变暖,北半球植物始花期普遍提前。而关于气候变暖对植物始花期影响的内在机... 详细信息

植物物候对气候变化的响应非常敏感,是指示全球变化对生态系统影响的重要证据。其中植物花期变化影响植物繁殖与进化,具有重要意义。大量研究表明,随着全球气候变暖,北半球植物始花期普遍提前。而关于气候变暖对植物始花期影响的内在机理并没有明确解释。植物激素是植物体内对植物开花等生理活动有显著调控作用的有机物,可对环境刺激作出响应并直接参与调控植物始花期,导致始花期的提前或延后。对植物激素在植物中表达与变化的精确测定有助于了解植物始花期对气候变化响应的内在机理。论文综述了植物激素对植物开花时间的调控作用以及目前植物激素最先进的检测方法,探讨了植物激素及相关代谢产物在植物体内的含量变化对植物始花期的影响;提出通过植物激素研究植物始花期对气候变化响应的激素调控机理,为探索植物物候对气候变化响应提供新的研究思路与手段。

关键词：物候始花期植物激素质谱

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Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIs

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research in Cold and Arid Regions 2015年第2期7卷 170-179页

作者： YanWei Zhang quansheng ge FengQing Jiang JingYun Zheng Wenshou Wei institute of geographic sciences and natural resources research Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Environment and Planning Shangqiu Normal University College of geographical science Shanxi Normal University Xinjiang institute of Ecology and geography Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIs （Providing Regional Climate for Impact studies）, was made for future precipitation extremes, under sREs （special Report on Emission scenarios） A2 and B2 in IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI （Climate Change Detection and Indices）. The results show that：（1） In Present scenario （1961 1900）, PRECIs could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. （2） The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation＇s increase in frequency and intensity during 1961-2008. Under sREs A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 2.st century. The extreme summer pre- cipitation increased prominently in a year. （3） PREC1s＇s simulation under sREs A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21 st century. Both A2 and B2.scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 2.st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2.scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different sREs.

关键词： climate change PRECIs Xinjiang extreme precipitation IPCC

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近50年中国典型木本植物展叶始期温度敏感度变化及原因

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生态学报 2019年第21期39卷 8135-8143页

作者：徐韵佳葛全胜戴君虎王焕炯中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049

展叶始期的温度敏感度是指气温每变化1℃,物候期变化的天数。展叶始期对温度响应更敏感的植物能够在生长季初期占据更多的资源从而在种间竞争中占据优势,因此研究展叶始期的温度敏感度变化有助于评估植物对气候变化的适应能力。选择1963... 详细信息

展叶始期的温度敏感度是指气温每变化1℃,物候期变化的天数。展叶始期对温度响应更敏感的植物能够在生长季初期占据更多的资源从而在种间竞争中占据优势,因此研究展叶始期的温度敏感度变化有助于评估植物对气候变化的适应能力。选择1963—2014年10个站点163种植物的展叶始期资料,利用滑动分析法计算了每15a各植物的展叶始期温度敏感度。在此基础上,分析了温度敏感度的变化趋势及空间格局,并讨论了导致展叶始期温度敏感度变化的可能原因。主要结论为:在全部313条展叶始期时间序列中,60.1%的序列温度敏感度呈升高趋势,其中显著升高的占40.0%(P28.4%。在空间分布上,温带地区的6个站点展叶始期温度敏感度平均呈升高趋势。其中,北京地区植物展叶始期温度敏感度升高最为普遍,显著升高的物种比例达到75.0%(P<0.05)。而亚热带站点(除合肥外)的展叶始期温度敏感度主要呈降低趋势。其中,长沙植物展叶始期温度敏感度显著降低的物种比例最高,达68.4%。冬季冷激量和春季气温变率是影响植物展叶始期温度敏感度随时间变化的主要因素。冬季冷激量降低将导致植物展叶始期温度敏感度降低,而春季气温变率降低将导致植物展叶始期温度敏感度升高。

关键词：物候温度敏感度展叶始期气候因子中国

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气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟

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地理学报 2022年第1期77卷 35-50页

作者：刘浩龙周宇刘俊戴君虎葛全胜齐晓波中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100049 四川大学旅游学院成都610065

北海公园冰上运动是北京传统体育文化遗产的重要组成内容以及冬季休闲旅游的代表性符号,强化其气候变化影响与适应研究,对于应对全球变化的挑战、践行“大力发展冰雪经济”的指示具有重要意义。本文从多源文献中提取分析了其冰场多年启... 详细信息

北海公园冰上运动是北京传统体育文化遗产的重要组成内容以及冬季休闲旅游的代表性符号,强化其气候变化影响与适应研究,对于应对全球变化的挑战、践行“大力发展冰雪经济”的指示具有重要意义。本文从多源文献中提取分析了其冰场多年启闭日期(间接指示冰层厚15 cm)的变化特征,并结合气温器测数据以及4种气候情景数据(ssP1-2.6、ssP2-4.5、ssP3-7.0和ssP5-8.5),利用留一交叉验证法探讨了不同温度指标和拟合方程的预测效果差异,进而对未来冰上运动季的变化、潜在影响与适应对策进行分析。结果表明:①1989—2018年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别为1月1日、2月5日和36 d,对应的趋势表现为不显著的推迟(1.00 d/10a)、提前(-0.77 d/10a)和延长(1.11 d/10a),时序变化可区分为1989—2000年、2001—2013年和2014—2018年3个阶段。②冰上运动季始、末日分别对其日期前59 d的日最低温和前94 d的日最高温有较好响应,利用这两个指标和玻尔兹曼函数可更好预测冰上运动季变化。③2021—2099年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别较1989—2018年晚1 d、早1 d和缩短2 d,3个指标变幅一致缩小,对应的0.14 d/10a、-0.21 d/10a和-0.34 d/10a的趋势均达到0.01的显著性水平。④未来79 a内冬季两大节庆中元旦冰上运动的适宜性要大于春节,其中春节的适宜性在4种气候情景下相差不大,而元旦的适宜性则在4种情景下有一定差别。⑤在相关预估结果上,BCC-CsM2-MR、CanEsM-5和UKEsM这3种区域气候模式并没有太大差异,而热岛效应影响尚待深入研究。⑥为了在气候变暖背景下促进体旅融合消费、保障冰上运动产业高质量发展,运营企业应采取强化游客安全保障、扩展旅游产品谱系、购买冰量保险等全方位主动适应措施,研究者应加强研究气候变化影响的复杂性、改进旅游流的预测效果,而管理部门应大力推动产业风险管理报告的编制,充分重视气候变化风险的动态评估。

关键词：气候变化北海公园湖冰物候期冰上运动季特征情景模拟北京

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Observed,Reconstructed,and simulated Decadal Variability of summer Precipitation over Eastern china

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Journal of Meteorological research 2017年第1期31卷 49-60页

作者： Jingyun ZHENG Maowei WU quansheng ge Zhixin HAO Xuezhen ZHANG Key Laboratory of Land surface Pattern and simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of sciences College of Resources and Environment

Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736-2000, dry-wet index data for A.D. 500-2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth system Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastem china is stud- ied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are： 22-24 and quasi-70 yr over the North china Plain; 32-36, 44-48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang-Huai area; and 32-36 and 4448 yr in the Jiang-Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation re- veals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North china Plain, Jiang-Huai area, and Jiang-Nan area, at scales of 20-35, 35-50, and 50-80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm （cold） phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry （wet） conditions over the North china Plain, but wet （dry） conditions in the Jiang-Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data-model comparison sug- gests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastem china, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattem of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.

关键词： decadal variability dominant cycle summer precipitation eastern china data-model comparison

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1952-2007年中国白蜡树春季物候格网数据

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地理学报 2014年第S1期69卷 I0054-I0056,149-152页

作者：葛全胜戴君虎王焕炯中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室北京100101

1952-2007年中国白蜡树春季物候格网数据(The gridded dataset of spring phenology of Fraxinus chinensis in china from 1952 to 2007)包括1952-2007年共56个逐年文件,该数据是以ARCGIs标准格式存储的白蜡树展叶始期数据,并以经纬度1度为单位的格网数据。它是中国区域物候学研究的产出成果,是表征中国近50年物候时空变化及格局的基础数据。在该数据基础上的研究论文被IPCC第五次评估报告所引用。

关键词：物候白蜡树展叶始期时空格局气候变化

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