Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS

作     者：YanWei Zhang QuanSheng Ge FengQing Jiang JingYun Zheng WenShou Wei 

作者机构：Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Environment and Planning Shangqiu Normal University College of Geographical Science Shanxi Normal University Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences 

出 版 物：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 (寒旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第7卷第2期

页      面：170-179页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0705[理学-地理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：funded by Henan Province Office of education of Humanities and social science research projects (2014-qn-151) the "Western Light" Project (RCPY200902) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences the special scientific research project (GYHY200706008) the project of National Social Science Foundation (14CJY077) Science and Technology Department of Henan Province key scientific and technological project (142102310299) the National Natural Science Foundation (41171066) of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography 

主　　题：climate change PRECIS Xinjiang extreme precipitation IPCC 

摘      要：In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS （Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies）, was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES （Special Report on Emission Scenarios） A2 and B2 in IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI （Climate Change Detection and Indices）. The results show that： （1） In Present Scenario （1961 1900）, PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. （2） The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation＇s increase in frequency and intensity during 1961-2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer pre- cipitation increased prominently in a year. （3） PREC1S＇s simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21 st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.