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The effect of the infection within the individual host on its propagation in the population

Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 345-361页

作者： Franciane Azevedo Marcos Amaku francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Luis Fernandez Lopez Eduardo Massad Faculdade de Engenharia da Computaçaoe Engenharia Eletrica Universidade Federal do Sul e Sudeste do ParaMarabaPABrazil Faculdade de Medicina Universidade de Sao Pauloe LIM01-HCFMUSPAv.Dr.Arnaldo 455Sao PauloSP01246-903Brazil Faculdade de Medicina Veterinariae Zootecnia Universidade de Sao PauloSao PauloSP05508-270Brazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine LondonUK Escola de Matematica Aplicada Fundaçao Getúlio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil College of Natural and Life Sciences The University of DerbyDerbyUK

We consider nested or multiscale models to study the effect of the temporal evolution of the disease within the host in the population dynamics of the disease,for one and two infectious agents.We assumed a coupling between the within-host infection rate and the between-host transmission rate.The age of infection within each individual in a population affects the probability of transmission of the disease to a susceptible host and this will affect the temporal evolution of the disease in the host population.To analyze the infection within the host,we consider bacterial-like and viral-like infections.In the model for two infectious agents,we found that,when strain 2 has a basic reproduction number R02 greater than the basic reproduction number R01 of strain 1,strain 2 replaces strain 1 in the population.However,if R02>R01 but the values are closer,the replacement does not occur immediately and both strains can coexist for a long time.We applied the model to a scenario in which patients infected with the hepatitis C virus(HCV)are cleared of HCV when super-infected with the hepatitis A virus(HAV).We compared the time for the replacement of HCV by HAV in the population considering instantaneous and noninstantaneous replacement within the individuals.The model developed can be generalized for more than two infectious agents.

关键词： Nested model Multiscale model Within-host infection Between-host transmission Infectious disease

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Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 46-55页

作者： Marcos Amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto Claudio Struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary Medicine University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and Clinical Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease Control London School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society.In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,Brasil.The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 August.Therefore,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic.Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated.One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling

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Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 441-454页

作者： Eduardo Massad Marcos Amaku francisco antonio bezerra coutinho Claudio JoséStruchiner Luis Fernandez Lopez Annelies Wilder-Smith Marcelo Nascimento Burattini School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine UK College of Life and Natural Sciences The University of DerbyUK Programme of Scientific Computation Fundação Oswaldo CruzRio de JaneiroBrazil Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute St Michael's HospitalTorontoCanada Institute of Public Health University of HeidelbergGermany Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185 UmeåSweden Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore Hospital São Paulo Escola Paulista de MedicinaUniversidade Federal de São PauloSão PauloSPBrazil

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue.The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly.Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes'densities,the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes'density.The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

关键词： Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes'densities Dengue Zika virus Yellow fever

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Uremic Bleeding in 2 Patients with Dieulafoy’s Lesion: Case Report and Literature Review

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Open Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第5期14卷 167-173页

作者： Gustavo Adolfo Hernández Valdez Diana Estefanía Ibarra García Juan antonio Contreras Escamilla Janette Alejandra Gamiño Gutierrez francisco Manuel Tonatiuh Carrillo Beltran Ulises Solis Gomez Jocelyn Nataly Quintero Meléndez Ivan Alejandro Medina Jimenez Marco antonio González Villar Jorge Rojas Morales Department of Internal Medicine ISSSTE APP General Hospital of Tepic Tepic Nayarit Mexico Hospital Civil de Guadalajara Fray antonio Alcalde Guadalajara Jalisco M&#233xico

Dieulafoy’s lesions are rare vascular malformations of the gastrointestinal tract. A Dieulafoy’s lesion is an aberrant vessel that does not reduce in caliber when it extends from the submucosa to the mucosa. Damage to this artery can cause severe and intermittent arterial bleeding from small vascular stumps that are difficult to visualize. Furthermore, these catastrophic bleeding episodes frequently result in hemodynamic instability and the need for transfusion of multiple blood products. Recently, uremic syndrome has been identified as a risk factor for gastric mucosal lesions. We present two clinical cases of acute digestive bleeding due to Dielafoy lesion with chronic kidney disease as the main cause, where two different therapies were performed endoscopically. We concluded with the results of our patients that the best therapy was the application of the hemostatic hemoclip on the injury vs the injection with adrenaline on the wound site. Uremia is identified as a risk factor for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with pre-existing Dieulafoy’s lesion, as well as a higher incidence of new bleeding.

关键词： Dieulafoy’s Lesion Gastrointestinal Bleeding Endoscopy Endoscopy Hemostatic Clips Kidney Disease Adrenaline Thermal Coagulation Dieulafoy

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Twenty-four-hour movement guidelines during middle adolescence and their association with glucose outcomes and type 2 diabetes mellitus in adulthood

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Journal of Sport and Health Science 2023年第2期12卷 167-174页

作者： antonio García-Hermoso Joséfrancisco López-Gil Yasmin Ezzatvar Robinson Ramírez-Vélez Mikel Izquierdo Navarrabiomed Hospital Universitario de Navarra(HUN)Universidad Publica de Navarra(UPNA)IdiSNAPamplona 31008Spain Health and Social Research Center Universidad de Castilla-La ManchaCuenca 16007Spain Department of Nursing Universitat de ValenciaValencia 46010Spain

Purpose:The aim of the present study was to determine the association between adherence to the 24-h movement guidelines during middle adolescence and glucose outcomes(glycated hemoglobin and fasting glucose)and type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)in adulthood,14 and 22 years later.Methods:We analyzed data from apparently healthy adolescents aged 12-18 years who participated in WavesⅠandⅡ(1994-1996,n=14,738),WaveⅣ(2008-2009,n=8913),and Wave V(2016-2018,n=3457)of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health(Add Health)in the United States.Physical activity,screen time,and sleep duration were measured using questionnaires,and the 24-h guidelines were defined as:5 or more times moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week,≤2 h per day of screen time,and 9-11 h of sleep for 12-13 years and 8-10 h for 14-17 years.Capillary and venous whole blood was collected and analyzed to determine glycated hemoglobin and fasting glucose for WavesⅣandⅤ,respectively.Results:Only 2.1%of the adolescents met all the 3 guidelines,and 37.8%met none of them.In both wavesⅣandⅤ,adolescents who met physical activity and screen time guidelines had lower odds of T2DM in adulthood than those who did not meet any of these guidelines(WaveⅣ;prevalence ratio(PR)=0.57,95%confidence interval(95%CI):0.21-0.89;Wave V:PR=0.43,95%CI:0.32-0.74).Only for Wave V did adolescents who met all 3 guidelines have lower odds of T2DM at follow-up compared with those who did not meet any of these guidelines(PR=0.47,95%CI:0.24-0.91).Also,for each increase in meeting one of the 24-h recommendations,the odds of T2DM decreased by 18%(PR=0.82,95%CI:0.61-0.99)and 15%(PR=0.85,95%CI:0.65-0.98)in adulthood for WavesⅣandⅤ,respectively.Conclusion:Promoting all 24-h movement guidelines in adolescence,especially physical activity and screen time,is important for lowering the potential risk of T2DM in adulthood.

关键词： Glucose metabolism Glycated hemoglobin Physical activity Screen time Sleep duration

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Prevalence of meeting 24-Hour Movement Guidelines from pre-school to adolescence: A systematic review and meta-analysis including 387,437 participants and 23 countries

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Journal of Sport and Health Science 2022年第4期11卷 427-437页

作者： Miguel Angel Tapia-Serrano Javier Sevil-Serrano Pedro antonio Sanchez-Miguel Jose francisco Lopez-Gil Mark STremblay antonio Garcıa-Hermoso Department of Didactics of Musical Plastic and Body ExpressionFaculty of Teaching TrainingUniversity of ExtremaduraAvenida de la UniversidadS/NCaceres 10071Spain Department of Physical Activity and Sport Faculty of Sport ScienceUniversity of Murcia(UM)San Javier 30720Spain Healthy Active Living and Obesity Research Group Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario(CHEO)Research InstituteOttawaON K1H 8L1Canada Navarrabiomed Public University of Navarra(UPNA)Health Research Institute of Navarra(IdiSNA)Navarra Hospital Complex(CHN)Pamplona 310008Spaia

Background:Meeting the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines(physical activity,screen time,and sleep duration) has been associated with positive health indicators.However,there are no previous meta-analyses that have examined the overall adherence to the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines from pre-school to adolescence across the world.Therefore,the main purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine the overall(non)adherence to the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines among preschoolers,children,and adolescents worldwide.Methods:Four electronic databases(MEDLINE,Scopus,Web of Science,and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews) were searched for quantitative studies published in Spanish and English between January 2016 and May 2021.Studies that were conducted with apparently healthy participants and reported the overall(non)adherence to the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines in preschoolers and/or children and/or adolescents were included.Results:Sixty-three studies comprising 387,437 individuals(51% girls) aged 3-18 years from 23 countries were included.Overall,7.12%(95%confidence interval(95%CI):6.45%-7.78%) of youth met all three 24-Hour Movement Guidelines,and 19.21%(95%CI:16.73%-21.69%)met none of the 3 recommendations.Concerning sex,adherence to all recommendations was significantly lower in girls(3.75%,95%CI:3.23%-4.27%) than in boys(6.89%,95%CI:5.89%-7.89%)(p <0.001).However,there were no sex differences regarding adherence to any of the 3 individual recommendations(girls,15.66%,95%CI:8.40%-22.92%;boys,12.95%,95%CI:6.57%-19.33%).In terms of age group,adherence to the 3 recommendations was 11.26%(95%CI:8.68%-13.84%),10.31%(95%CI:7.49%-13.12%),and 2.68%(95%CI:1.78%-3.58%) in preschoolers,children,and adolescents,respectively.Conversely,8.81%(95%CI:5.97%-11.64%) of preschoolers,15.57%(95%CI:11.60%-19.54%) of children,and 28.59%(95%CI:22.42%-34.75%) of adolescents did not meet any of the recommendations.South America was the region with the lowest adherence(all:2.93%;none:31.72%).Overall adherence to the 24-Hour Movement

关键词： Exercise Lifestyle Movement behaviors Sedentary behaviors Youth

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The first scientific plan of the MosqueCathedral of Cordoba:Graphic and dimensional analysis of an oil painting from 1741

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Frontiers of Architectural Research 2023年第4期12卷 587-600页

作者： Juan Cantizani-Oliva Juan-francisco Reinoso-Gordo antonio Gamiz-Gordo Electrical and Automatic Engineering Department University of CordobaCordoba 14071Spain Architectural and Engineering Graphic Expression Department University of GranadaGranada 18071Spain Architectural Graphic Expression Department University of SevilleSeville 41012Spain

This research analyzes the earliest located floor plan of the Mosque-Cathedral of Cordoba,an anonymous oil painting in 1741,which has not been studied so far.The objective is to know the dimensional accuracy of the most relevant architectural forms drawn,considering the elements referenced in their legend and the graphic symbols used,to assess their documentary interest.It has also been compared with two important plans of the MosqueCathedral drawn in 1767 and 1868.The first task was a photogrammetric survey of the oil painting has been carried out.Subsequently,some data has been measured in the monument using a 3D scanner.The orthophoto of the oil painting has been overlapped to the digital model to verify its metric accuracy in a selection of points.For the first time,the legend and labels included in the oil painting have been transcribed.This precise graphic document contains reliable abundant data for future research about the transformations and restorations of a monument that is part of the UNESCO World Heritage List.The oil painting dating from 1741 can be considered as the first scientific plan of the Mosque-Cathedral of Cordoba,and as an outstanding architectural survey of eighteenth-century Europe.

关键词： Mosque-Cathedral Co´rdoba Historical plans Photogrammetry 3D laser scanner

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A wood-wood joining system suitable for digital fabrication and its application in the design of a“wood-only”spatial modulea

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Frontiers of Architectural Research 2023年第3期12卷 523-540页

作者： antonio Jesús de-los-Aires-Solís francisco Gonzalez-Quintial Doctoral School.University of the Basque Country UPV/EHULeioa 48940Spain Department of Architecture.University of the Basque Country UPV/EHULeioa 48940Spain

This paper describes a wood-wood spatial joining system adapted to digital fabrication which has been designated the“Spatial Masterkey”.The wood stereotomy of the joints between the different pieces that make up this joining system is inspired by a three-dimensional puzzle called“snowflake”.The production process used in the masterkey system can be carried out using only a 3-axis CNC milling machine—a relatively affordable and easily accessible tool.By using digital manufacturing for the execution of wood-wood joints,several benefits are obtained including faster machining and greater cutting precision and uniformity in the products produced.These advantages make this joining system both economically competitive and environmentally friendly.Additionally,the versatility of this joining system means that its configuration can be adapted to a wide range of casuistry of encounters between members,which means that it can be used for a number of spatial assemblies.This includes,but is not limited to,the spatial module presented in this document.

关键词： Wood-wood joinery Digital fabrication 3-Axis CNC Spatial module Sustainability Burr puzzle

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A bibliometric review of cryptocurrencies:how have they grown?

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Financial Innovation 2022年第1期8卷 25-55页

作者： francisco Javier García-Corral Joséantonio Cordero-García Jaime de Pablo-Valenciano Juan Uribe-Toril Research Group:Almeria Group of Applied Economy(SEJ 147) University of AlmeriaCarretera Sacramento s/n04120La Cañada de San UrbanoAlmeríaSpain Department of Law Financial and Tax LawUniversity of AlmeriaCarretera Sacramento s/n04120La Cañada de San UrbanoAlmeríaSpain Department of Business and Economics Applied Economic AreaUniversity of AlmeríaCarretera Sacramento s/n04120La Cañada de San UrbanoAlmeríaSpain

With the development of new technologies,some concepts become relevant in the economic area,as is the case with cryptocurrencies,in general,or Bitcoin and Ethereum,in particular.Due to the impact of these tools,a detailed bibliometric study that allows us to obtain all information about cryptocurrencies must be conducted.This study will help scientific production by specifying the development and lines of related research that have been followed and are currently being followed.We have used Tableau,R(Bibliometrix R Package),and VOSviewer software to analyze the information.These have been combined to create and review unified metadata from the Web of Science(WoS)and Scopus databases.The bibliometric analysis shows 771 articles on the WoS database and 648 articles on Scopus published between 2010 and early 2019.They present the most relevant articles,research areas,countries,institu-tions,authors,journals,and trends during the last few years.In conclusion,the number of publications has grown in the last 3 years.The analysis shows the evolution of block-chain technology used in this type of cryptocurrency.The review of this period marks a possible end to the historical part of cryptocurrencies,thereby opening the current topic to its multiple applications.

关键词： Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Ethereum Bibliometric analysis Business and economics

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Chemotherapy induces cell plasticity;controlling plasticity increases therapeutic response

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Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy 2023年第8期8卷 3563-3566页

作者： francisco J.Iborra Cristina Martí Virtu Calabuig-Navarro Petros Papadopoulos Salvador Meseguer Pedro M.Iborra francisco García antonio Martínez-Lorente Fernando Almazán Juana Calabuig Centro de Investigación Príncipe Felípe(Associated Unit to Instituto de Biomedicína de Valencia) ValenciaSpain Pathology and Molecular Therapy Department Instituto de Biomedicína de Valencia(IBV)CSICValenciaSpain Molecular and Cellular Biology Department Centro Nacional de Biotecnología(CNB)CSICMadridSpain Hematology Department Hospital Clínico San CarlosMadridSpain Medical Systems Biology Faculty of MedicineUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland IC Biomed AlicanteSpain VinalopóHospitals Elcheand Biotechnology DepartmentUniversidad de AlicanteAlicanteSpain

Dear Editor,One of the most serious issues in modern oncology is the ineffectiveness of treatments in destroying tumours,which leads to tumour recurrence and,ultimately,patient death.This phenomenon is caused by conventional therapies’fractional killing of tumour cells,which can also cause resistant cells to spread.1 We analysed chemotherapy-resistant cells and discovered that they are smaller than untreated cells(Fig.1a).The fact that this phenomenon occurs in all tested cell types(Hela,A549,Huh7,and MCF7)and regardless of the chemotherapy regimen(TRAIL,Camptothecin,Doxorubicin)suggests that it is a widespread phenomenon(Fig.1a,Supplementary Fig.S1).

关键词： chemotherapy tumour plasticity

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