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Interdecadal changes in the frequency of winter extreme cold events in North China during 1989–2.2.

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 1-7页

作者： Yali zhu fangwu Song Dong Guo nansen‐zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2.2.年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2.03.{3.3.发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2.03.{3.2.,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南... 详细信息

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2.2.年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2.03.{3.3.发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2.03.{3.2.,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南下入侵华北地区,华北极端冷日数偏多.而在1989-2.02.和{3.3.2.2.年,情况相反.虽然三个时段华北极端冷日的强度没有显著差异,但与其相联系的冷空气强度变得更强, {3.3.2.2.年冷空气中心区域往西北扩张到了贝加尔湖以西地区.

关键词：华北极端冷事件西伯利亚–乌拉尔高压北大西洋涛动极地急流东亚西风急流

Interdecadal changes in the western Siberian summer mean and extreme rainfall during 1982.2.2.

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 37-41页

作者： Yali zhu fangwu Song Dong Guo nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2.12.后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征... 详细信息

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2.12.后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征在三个时段基本一致:西西伯利亚低空出现气旋性异常,高空为西北-东南向的异常气旋-反气旋偶极子型.1995-2.11年期间,极端降水日数更多,强度更强,上述异常环流型也更强.

关键词：西伯利亚夏季降水年代际变化乌拉尔高压北大西洋波流相互作用

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网络成瘾与大学生在校身体活动的关系研究

天津体育学院学报 2024年第3期39卷 350-357页

作者：范玉川朱从庆朱乐青华东政法大学体育部上海201620 上海师范大学体育学院上海200234 上海杉达学院上海201209

目的:运用纵向研究——交叉滞后研究设计,探讨网络成瘾与大学生在校身体活动的因果关系。方法:采用青少年上网成瘾自评量表和国际身体活动量表(短版),对上海市8所高校的604.大学生(52.81%男生)进行为期4.月、两阶段的追踪问卷调查。结... 详细信息

目的:运用纵向研究——交叉滞后研究设计,探讨网络成瘾与大学生在校身体活动的因果关系。方法:采用青少年上网成瘾自评量表和国际身体活动量表(短版),对上海市8所高校的604.大学生(52.81%男生)进行为期4.月、两阶段的追踪问卷调查。结果:大学生网络成瘾的性别差异不显著(P>0.05),但在校身体活动的性别差异显著(男生优于女生),且网络成瘾者与非网络成瘾者的在校身体活动水平也存在显著差异(成瘾者低于非成瘾者);大学生网络成瘾与在校身体活动具有跨时间稳定的负相关(P2.在校身体活动的影响显著(P2.网络成瘾影响显著(P<0.05),且前者的影响效应大于后者,网络成瘾与在校身体活动交叉滞后效应的性别差异不显著。结论:大学生在校身体活动具有性别差异,在网络成瘾者与非成瘾者间也存在差异;大学生网络成瘾与在校身体活动存在因果关系,其中网络成瘾是大学生在校身体活动的原因变量,且网络成瘾对大学生在校身体活动的影响具有性别一致性。交叉滞后模型的建构,在一定程度上解释了网络成瘾与大学生在校身体活动的内在关联,可为改善大学生身体活动水平提供一定参考。

关键词：大学生网络成瘾在校身体活动交叉滞后分析

A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction research in China

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2015年第2期32卷 149-168页

作者： wang huijun {2. {3. SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI {2.g zhu Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences institute of Atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National Climate center China Meteorological Administration

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 193. s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by{3. scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

关键词： seasonal prediction climate variability predictability

中国江南地区夏季降水的统计降尺度预报(英文)

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中国江南地区夏季降水的统计降尺度预报(英文)

Effects of boronizing treatment on microstructural development and mechanical properties of additively manufactured TC4.titanium alloys

第2.届中国气象学会年会

作者： LIU Ying 1,2.fan ke1,and wang Hui-Jun1 1 {2.-{4. international {3. Centre,institute of Atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 10002.,China 2.Graduate University of the{14.,Beijing 10004.,China

本文基于多元线性回归,利用DEMETER资料和观测资料对中国江南地区的夏季降水进行统计降尺度研究。结果发现,统计模式在江南地区DEMETER7个模式回报的夏季降水与观测结果的空间距平相关系数提高显著,尤其是在中部和东北部地区,距平相关... 详细信息

本文基于多元线性回归,利用DEMETER资料和观测资料对中国江南地区的夏季降水进行统计降尺度研究。结果发现,统计模式在江南地区DEMETER7个模式回报的夏季降水与观测结果的空间距平相关系数提高显著,尤其是在中部和东北部地区,距平相关系数都大于0.4.0}超过95%信度）甚至超过0.53.超过99%信度）。同时,均方根误差（RMSE）在江南东北部地区也有显著降低,降尺度前后的均方根误差差值场大于1mm/d。降尺度之后的区域平均夏季降水距平时间序列能够抓住观测场的主要特征,模式原始结果与观测的时间序列的相关系数的变化范围为-0.2.到0.2.,在实施降尺度之后,相关系数的变化范围提高到0.52.0.69。

关键词： statistical downscaling DEMETER Southeastern China summer precipitation anomaly

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Journal of Iron and Steel research international 2019年第3期26卷 329-334页

作者： Jin-zhu Song Wei Tang Jie-wen Huang Zi-kang wang Xin-min {2. {3.-hong wang College of Materials Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Science and TechnologyNanjing 210094JiangsuChina Jiangsu Product Quality Testing&Inspection institute Nanjing 210007JiangsuChina

Microstructure and mechanical properties of additively manufactured TC4.alloys were investigated,following boronizing *** treatment process was carried out at temperatures ranging from 950 to 1050°C and held for 8-15 *** microstructural features of fabricated boride layers were examined by optical *** phase compositions of the boride layers were analyzed by X-ray *** hardness profile through the boride layers was also *** results showed that the boride layer of additively manufactured TC4.had a thickness of 51 pm and was composed of an outer TiB2.layer on the top of TiB layer;TiB whiskers wedged into the matrix,forming a strong bond between the boride layer and *** diffusion activation energy was determined to be 80.9 kJ/*** matrix was found to transfer from needlelikeα'martensite phase toα+βbiphasic *** newly formed boride layer can reach 1680 HV in hardness,thus imparting a strong protection to 3.-printed part.

关键词： Additive manufacturing TC4 titanium alloy Boronizing Microstructure Microhardness

年际增量的预测方法在北大西洋飓风频次的季节预测(英文)

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年际增量的预测方法在北大西洋飓风频次的季节预测(英文)

Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northeastern China

第2.届中国气象学会年会

作者： ke fan1,{2. {3.-{4. international research {3.,institute of Atmospheric physics,chinese academy of {12.,Beijing 10002.,China 2.key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment research for Temperate East Asia chinese academy of Science,Beijing 10002.,China

基于年际增量的预测方法发展高效的飓风季节（6月1日-11月3.日）内大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风）频次的预测模型。首先预测大西洋热带风暴频次的年际增量再预测大西洋热带风暴频次。通过以下两个途径考察年际增量预测方法的应用潜力:（1... 详细信息

基于年际增量的预测方法发展高效的飓风季节（6月1日-11月3.日）内大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风）频次的预测模型。首先预测大西洋热带风暴频次的年际增量再预测大西洋热带风暴频次。通过以下两个途径考察年际增量预测方法的应用潜力:（1）将年际增量的预测方法分别与原始变量线性和非线性Poisson预测模型比较（图）;（2.与Gray等（2.09,2.10）发展大西洋热带风暴频次的预测系统比较。研究表明,年际增量的方法及预测模型有较高的预测技巧。相对于大西洋热带风暴的气候预测平均的绝对误差4.1,在2.04.2.09年际增量的预测模型预测技巧提高了2.%,1985-2.09的交叉检验的回报的预测技巧提高4.%,高于同期Gray等（2.09,2.10）的预测技巧。作者已基于年际增量的方法发展了有效的东亚夏季降水、气温,西太平洋台风频次和登陆气旋数的预测模型,此项工作表明它还可以应用到大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风频次）的季节预测中。

关键词： year-by-year increment Atlantic named tropical storm prediction model

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2015年第7期32卷 889-897页

作者： ZHOU Mengzi wang huijun nansen-zhu {2. {3. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of sciences

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2.10-3. （period 1）, 2.4.-69 （period 2., and 2.70-99 （period 3.] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2.05） were 2.92., 3.11% and 2.63., respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83., respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became mar{2.dly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3. while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policyma{2.rs.

关键词： northeastern China statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty

Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in China

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2016年第5期33卷 559-570页

作者： Donglin GUO huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. {3.{4. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution ***, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM（VFRGCM） and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that：（1） The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation.（2. The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method.（3. The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall,the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future,and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

关键词： climate simulation dynamical downscaling GCM RCM