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A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction research in china

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2015年第2期32卷 149-168页

作者： wang huijun {2. ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI {2.g zhu Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences National Climate center China Meteorological Administration

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In china, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in china. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by chinese scientists. These studies in china mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for china in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South china.

关键词： seasonal prediction climate variability predictability

Potential Impact of Future Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northeastern china

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2015年第7期32卷 889-897页

作者： ZHOU Mengzi wang huijun nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of Sciences

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern china （NEC） by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario （RCP4.5）, the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2.10-39 （period 1）, 2.40-69 （period 2., and 2.70-99 （period 3）] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period （1976-2.05） were 2.92., 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 1{2.9%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase （but with great uncertainty） against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.

关键词： northeastern china statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty

Comparison of a Very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM Dynamical Downscaling in Simulating Climate in china

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2016年第5期33卷 559-570页

作者： Donglin GUO huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution ***, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over china from a very-fine-resolution GCM（VFRGCM） and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that：（1） The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation.（2. The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method.（3） The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall,the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future,and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

关键词： climate simulation dynamical downscaling GCM RCM

Relationship between Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy and Eurasian Winter Cold Events

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2020年第6期37卷 652-661页

作者： Xinping XU Shengping HE huijun wang Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The profound impact of solar irradiance variations on the decadal variability of Earth’s climate has been investigated by previous ***,it remains a challenge to quantify the energetic particle precipitation(EPP)influence on the surface climate,which is an emerging research *** solar wind is a source of magnetospheric EPP,and the total energy input from the solar wind into Earth’s magnetosphere(Ein)shows remarkable interdecadal and interannual variability.B ased on the new Ein index,this study reveals a significant interannual relationship between the annual mean Einand Eurasian cold extremes in the subsequent *** frequent cold events are observed over Eurasia(primarily north of 50°N)following the higher-than-normal Ein activity in the previous year,accompanied by more frequent cold events over northern Africa,and vice *** response pattern shows great resemblance to the first empirical orthogonal function of the variability of cold extremes over Eurasia,with a spatial correlation coefficient of *** pronounced intensification of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation events and poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track associated with the anomalously higher Ein favor the anomalous extreme atmospheric circulation events,and thus less frequent extreme cold temperatures over northern Eurasia on the interannual time *** is further hypothesized that the wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere and troposphere is favorable for the connection of Ein signals to tropospheric circulation and climate in the following winter.

关键词： Eurasian interannual winter

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1706-1722页

作者： Wenyue HE Bo SUN huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

atmospheric water vapor content(WVC)is a critical factor for East Asian winter *** study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying *** on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method,the leading mode(EOF1,R2.2..9%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern china and eastern china;the second mode(EOF2.R2.2..3%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern ***1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT)branches over northeastern china and eastern china,which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS)area in the preceding October-November(ON).EOF2.is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern china,which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern *** circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature *** SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2.winter WVC,and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

关键词： interannual variability leading modes watervapor content East Asia

Strengthened Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO After the Mid-1990s during Austral Spring

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2017年第1期34卷 54-65页

作者： Tingting HAN huijun wang Jianqi SUN nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO （AAO） spatial signatures are restricted to the tropicsmidlatitudes （Antarctic-midlatitudes） of the Southern Hemisphere （SH）, with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the E1 Nifio-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of E1 Nifio-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

关键词： ENSO Antarctic Oscillation South Pacific SST austral spring decadal change

Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in china

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： Baoqiang TIAN ke fan nansen–zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in china during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2..(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in china is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–{2.7 is 0.63.(2. For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2.initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2.and 1-month leads, CFSv2.has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4-, 3-, and 2.month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2. year-to-year increment prediction

Simulated change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle on the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2.10

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chinese Science Bulletin 2014年第20期59卷 2439-2448页

作者： Donglin Guo huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of chinese academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences

The near-surface freeze/thaw cycle in cold regions plays a major role in the surface energy budget,hydrological activity,and terrestrial *** this study,the Community Land Model,Version 4 and a suite of high-resolution atmospheric data were used to investigate the changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to the warming on the Tibetan Plateau from1981 to *** in situ observations-based validation showed that,considering the cause of scale mismatch in the comparison,the simulated soil temperature,freeze start and end dates,and freeze duration at the near-surface were *** response to the warming of the Tibetan Plateau at a rate of approximately 0.44°C decade-1,the freeze start-date became delayed at an area-mean rate of1.7 days decade-1,while the freeze end-date became advanced at an area-mean rate of 4.7 days *** delaying of the freeze start-date,which was combined with the advancing of the freeze end-date,resulted in a statistically significant shortening trend with respect to the freeze duration,at an area-mean rate of 6.4 days *** changes would strongly affect the surface energy flux,hydrological processes,and vegetation *** also found that the rate of freeze-duration shortening at the near-surface soil layer was approximately 3.0 days decade-1lower than that at a depth of 1 *** implied that the changes in soil freeze/thaw cycles at the near surface cannot be assumed to reflect the situation in deeper soil *** significant correlations between freeze duration and air temperature indicated that the shortening of the near-surface freeze duration was caused by the rise in air temperature,which occurred especially in spring,followed by *** results can be used to reveal the laws governing the response of the near-surface freeze/thaw cycle to climate change and indicate related changes in permafrost.

关键词：土壤冻结青藏高原近地表解冻周期模拟冷冻时间陆地生态系统

Stratospheric Precursor of Non-Uniform Variation in Early Spring Surface Temperature over Eurasia

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Journal of Meteorological research 2017年第2期31卷 389-396页

作者： Fei LI huijun wang Yongqi GAO nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China nansen Environmental and-Remote Sensing Centre and Bjerknes CentrejCor Climate research Bergen N-5006 Norway

The stratospheric influences on the non-uniform variation in early spring（March–April,MA）surface temperature over Eurasia is investigated based on the ERA-Interim,NCEP-1,and NCEP-2.reanalysis data for the period1980–2.16.A lead–lag correlation is found between preceding winter（December–February,DJF）stratospheric polar vortex displacements（SPVD）and the MA west–east seesaw pattern in surface temperature over *** analysis reveals that the East Asian jet stream may act as a bridge linking DJF SPVD and MA surface temperature over Eurasia.A positive change in SPVD is associated with a decelerated polar jet stream and an accelerated East Asian jet stream in the troposphere in *** East Asian jet stream signal can persist into *** a result,anomalous southerly/northerly winds prevail over western/eastern Eurasia,accounting for the west–east surface temperature seesaw over Eurasia.

关键词： stratospheric polar vortex displacement Eurasian surface temperature East Asian jet stream