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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第6期5卷 455-460页

作者： TTIAN Bao-Qiang fan ke nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029China

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.

关键词： North Atlantic Oscillation summer extreme precipitation frequency the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley East Asian westerly jet

Two different periods of high dust weather frequency in northern china

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第4期9卷 263-269页

作者： fan ke XIE Zhi-Ming XU Zhi-Qing nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina University of the chinese Academy of sciences BeijingChina Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

This study reveals that, during the period 1966-2.14, dust weather frequency （DWF） in northern china （north of 30°N） features two high-DWF periods, in 1966-1979 （PI） and 2.00-2.14 （P2., when the linear trend of DWF is removed during the study period. Here, DWF denotes the number of days of dust weather events in the spring season （March-April-May）, including dust haze, blowing dust, and dust storms, which occurred in northern china. The results show that the DWF is much higher in PI than in P2. with increased DWF distributed over southern Xinjiang, the central part of northern china. The main cause is the SST difference in the Atlantic and Pacific between the two periods. It is also found that a meridional teleconnection over East Asia in PI and a zonal wave-like pattern over Eurasia in P2.at 2.0 hPa play a significant role in the interannual variability in the two periods, respectively. SST over the subtropical North Atlantic （extratropical SST between the Norwegian and Barents seas） may partly contribute to the upper-level meridional （zonal） teleconnection in PI （P2..

关键词： Dust weather frequency northern china meridionalteleconnection zonal wave-like pattern North AtlanticSST

Widespread glacier advances across the Tian Shan during Marine Isotope Stage 3 not supported by climate-glaciation simulations

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Fundamental research 2023年第1期3卷 102-110页

作者： Qing Yan Lewis A.Owen Chuncheng Guo Zhongshi Zhang Jinzhe Zhang huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster/Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Marine Earthand Atmospheric ScienceNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC 27695United States NORCE Norwegian research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway Department of atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Whether there were more extensive glaciations during the Marine Isotope Stage(MIS)3 relative to MIS 2.across the Tian Shan in Central Asia is intensely debated because of the uncertainty in chronological data and fully understanding the driving *** help resolve the ongoing debate,we assess the climate sensitivity of the glaciers and reconstruct the extent of glaciation during MIS 2.and 3 across the Tian Shan,using a glacier-resolving(2.0×2.0 m)ice sheet model asynchronously coupled with a global climate *** results demonstrate that the equilibrium-line altitude(ELA)over the Tian Shan decreases by∼180 m for every 1°C cooling under a modern precipitation regime,but precipitation reduction greatly lowers the sensitivity of the glaciers to temperature decrease(e.g.,the effect of 2.C cooling is broadly offset by a 50%decrease in precipitation).Under the modeled colder/drier-than-present climate,the model predicts an ELA depression(∆ELA)of∼75 m(162.m)over the Tian Shan during MIS 3 interstadials(stadials).The extent of MIS 3 glaciation is much smaller than that during MIS 2.i.e.,∆ELA=∼72. m).The more extensive glaciation during MIS 2.is largely attributed to the enhanced summer ***,through a site-to-site model-data comparison,we find that the closest match between the modeled glacier margin and the locations of the glacial deposits previously argued to be MIS 3 is generally achieved under MIS 2.climatic *** results suggest more extensive glacier advances over the Tian Shan during MIS 2.than MIS 3 on a regional scale,although MIS 3 glaciation may still occur in individual glacier *** pattern suggests general synchronicity with the timing of maximum Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial,which should be further tested in a multimodel framework in the future.

关键词： Glacier modeling Glacier sensitivity MIS 3 MIS 2 Tian Shan Paleoclimate modeling

Influence of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Across the Globe

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Journal of Meteorological research 2021年第3期35卷 428-443页

作者： Tao wang Jiapeng MIAO huijun wang Jianqi SUN Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 nansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

This study investigates the influences of strong tropical volcanic eruptions(SVEs) on daily temperature and precipitation extreme events using long-term simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3(HadCM3) and the Community Earth System Model version 1.1(CESM1). The results indicate that the occurrences of daily hot extremes and daily heavy precipitation extremes decrease over most parts of the world in the peak forcing years of SVEs. Due to the volcanic cooling effect, the average probability of daily hot extremes decreases by approximately 50% across the globe. The decrease in intensity is stronger for midlatitude land regions and tropical South *** contrast, daily cold extremes occur more frequently over most parts of continental regions. Globally, a cold extreme event expected once every 3 years under non-volcanic conditions can be expected every 1.5 years on average in the peak forcing years. Overall, the SVE-induced cooling effect plays a dominant role in regulating daily cold and hot extremes. Over high-latitude Eurasian regions, in contrast to other continental regions, the probability and intensity of daily cold extremes decrease due to an SVE-strengthened polar vortex and the associated temperature advection anomalies. With regard to daily heavy precipitation extremes, the probability and intensity both decrease over most monsoon areas. Further analysis suggests that the reduced probability and intensity of daily heavy precipitation extremes are mainly due to the SVE-induced global decrease in the water-holding capacity.

关键词： strong tropical volcanic eruption(SVE) daily extremes temperature precipitation

Direct Climatic Effect of Dust Aerosol in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3)

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2010年第2期27卷 230-242页

作者：乐旭王会军廖宏范可 Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences nansen-zhu {2. research center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of the chinese Academy of sciences State key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer {2. and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Direct climate responses to dust shortwave and longwave radiative forcing （RF） are studied using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 （CAM3）. The simulated RF at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） is-0.45 W m-2.in the solar spectrum and ＋0.09 W m-2.in the thermal spectrum on a global average. The magnitude of surface RF is larger than the TOA forcing, with global mean shortwave forcing of-1.76 W m-2.and longwave forcing of ＋0.31 W m-2.. As a result, dust aerosol causes the absorption of 1.1 W m-2.in the atmosphere. The RF of dust aerosol is predicted to lead to a surface cooling of 0.5 K over the Sahara Desert and Arabian Peninsula. In the meantime, the upper troposphere is predicted to become warmer because of the absorption by dust. These changes in temperature lead to a more stable atmosphere, which results in increases in surface humidity. The upward sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface are reduced, largely balancing the surface energy loss caused by the backscattering and absorption of dust aerosol. Precipitation is predicted to decrease moderately on a global scale.

关键词： dust aerosol radiative forcing direct radiative effect general circulation model

Subseasonal prediction of winter precipitation in southern china using the early November snowpack over the Urals

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2020年第6期13卷 534-541页

作者： LI Jingyi LI Fei wang huijun Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina dnansen-zhu {2. research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Evolution of the autumn snowpack has been considered as a potential source for the subseasonal predictability of winter surface air temperature,but its linkage to precipitation variability has been less well *** study shows that the snow water equivalent(SWE)over the Urals region in early(1–14)November is positively associated with precipitation in southern china during15–2. November and 6–15 January,based on the study period 1979/80–2.16/*** early November,a decreased Urals SWE warms the air locally via diabatic heating,indicative of significant land–atmosphere coupling over the Urals ***,a stationary Rossby wave train originates from the Urals and propagates along the polar-front jet *** mid(15–2.)November,this Rossby wave train propagates downstream toward East Asia and,combined with the deepened East Asian trough,reduces the precipitation over southern china by lessening the water vapor ***,during 2. November to 5 January,there are barely any obvious circulation anomalies owing to the weak land–atmosphere coupling over the *** early(6–15)January,the snowpack expands southward to the north of the Mediterranean Sea and cools the overlying atmosphere,suggestive of land–atmosphere coupling occurring over western Europe.A stationary Rossby wave train trapped in the subtropical westerly jet stream appears along with anomalous cyclonic circulation over Europe,and again with a deepened East Asian trough and less precipitation over southern *** current findings have implications for winter precipitation prediction in southern china on the subseasonal timescale.

关键词： Eurasian snow land–atmosphere coupling subseasonal predictability

Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2.2. despite La Nina Conditions

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第3期39卷 373-385页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM kevin ETRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Michael EMANN Jiang zhu {2. wang Ricardo LOCARNINI Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Zhetao TAN Fujiang YU Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin CHEN Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN international center for Climate and Environment {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA National center for atmospheric {2. BoulderColorado 80307USA National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Department of Meteorology&atmospheric Science The Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Italian National Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic DevelopmentS.Teresa Research CenterLerici 19032Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sede di BolognaBologna 40128Italy South china Sea institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20742USA

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2.2. from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2.2., was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2.2. annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ(1 zetta J = 102. J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans,and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2.2.. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.

关键词： La Nina ocean heat ocean warming attribution observation

基于年际增量方法的云南省普洱雨季开始期气候预测

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大气科学学报 2019年第6期42卷 801-813页

作者：王秀英田宝强范可普洱市气象局云南普洱665000 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 中国科学院大学北京100049

基于普洱雨季开始期年际增量变化规律和影响雨季开始期的环流形势及物理过程,采用年际增量方法和多元线性回归分析方法,选取5个具有物理意义的预测因子(包括前期1月南半球绕极环流、前期2.南太平洋高压、前期4月孟加拉湾至南海海平面... 详细信息

基于普洱雨季开始期年际增量变化规律和影响雨季开始期的环流形势及物理过程,采用年际增量方法和多元线性回归分析方法,选取5个具有物理意义的预测因子(包括前期1月南半球绕极环流、前期2.南太平洋高压、前期4月孟加拉湾至南海海平面气压、前期冬季加拿大北部海冰和前期冬季伊朗高原积雪深度),建立了普洱雨季开始期的预测模型,并对预测模型进行1967-2.17年的交叉检验和1998-2.17年的逐年独立样本检验。交叉检验中,雨季开始期预测值和观测值年际增量的相关系数为0.84,相对均方根误差为2.%;独立样本检验中,雨季开始期年际增量的相对均方根误差为15%,模型对雨季开始期异常年份的预测误差小于7 d,表明该预测模型能很好再现1967-2.17年雨季开始期的变化趋势。

关键词：年际增量方法云南普洱雨季开始期气候预测

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2023年第6期40卷 963-974页

作者： Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM kevin ETRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Michael EMANN Jiang zhu {2. wang Ricardo LOCARNINI Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Fujiang YU Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Licheng Feng Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin CHEN Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN Guancheng LI international center for Climate and Environment {2. Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of St.Thomas School of EngineeringMinnesota 55105USA National center for atmospheric {2. BoulderColorado 80307USA University of Auckland AucklandNew Zealand National Oceanic and atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental InformationSilver SpringMaryland 20910USA Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPennsylvania 19104USA institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural Resources of ChinaBeijing 100081China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China National Marine Data and Information Service Tianjin 300171China Italian National Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic DevelopmentS.Teresa Research CenterLerici 19032Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sede di BolognaBologna 40128Italy South china Sea institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China ESSIC/CISESS-MD University of MarylandCollege ParkMDCollege ParkMaryland 20740USA Eco-Environmental Monitoring and research center Pearl River Valley and South China Sea Ecology and Environment AdministrationMinistry of Ecology and EnvironmentPRCGuangzhou 510611China

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2.2., the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2.2. record *** to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2.00 m OHC in 2.2. exceeded that of 2.2. by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules = 102.Joules);and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins(the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier–fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2.2.,implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2.2. were dominated by a strong La Ni?a event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2.2..

关键词： ocean heat content salinity stratification global warming climate

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滑坡泥石流大尺度统计预报模型的实时检验

大气科学学报 2019年第1期42卷 78-92页

作者：何爽爽汪君王会军中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室江苏南京210044

利用滑坡敏感性分布和降雨阈值公式建立了一个滑坡泥石流统计模型,该模型可以用于中国大尺度范围内的滑坡泥石流预警。使用CMORPH卫星降水驱动该统计模型,对2.16—2.17年的106起滑坡泥石流事件进行了验证分析。结果表明,该模型能较好地... 详细信息

利用滑坡敏感性分布和降雨阈值公式建立了一个滑坡泥石流统计模型,该模型可以用于中国大尺度范围内的滑坡泥石流预警。使用CMORPH卫星降水驱动该统计模型,对2.16—2.17年的106起滑坡泥石流事件进行了验证分析。结果表明,该模型能较好地预警大多数滑坡泥石流事件,其中对72. 1%的雨季滑坡泥石流事件能较好预警,但对非雨季的事件只有35%能较好预警,对雨季的预警效果明显优于非雨季。由于滑坡泥石流主要发生在雨季,因此该模型总体上具有较好的效能。该模型对于强降雨引发的快速滑坡事件具有较好的预警能力,但对于由强度较小、持续时间较长的降雨引发的慢过程滑坡事件的预警效果有待提升。利用该统计模型以及CMORPH实时卫星降水产品,可以建立滑坡泥石流大尺度实时预警系统,对滑坡泥石流减灾防灾具有一定意义。

关键词：滑坡泥石流统计模型 CMOPRH卫星降水