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中国夏季月际—季节平均降水动力和统计结合实时预测模型

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大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 359-375页

作者：范可田宝强戴海霞中山大学大气科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 珠海519082 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 国防科技大学气象海洋学院长沙410073

中国夏季降水大幅度月际尺度变化往往造成极端旱涝事件交替或转折,但其月际异常会被季节平均掩盖,影响季节尺度气候预测准确度,因此亟需考虑月际气候预测,提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度。本文首先采用年际增量和场信息耦合型预测方... 详细信息

中国夏季降水大幅度月际尺度变化往往造成极端旱涝事件交替或转折,但其月际异常会被季节平均掩盖,影响季节尺度气候预测准确度,因此亟需考虑月际气候预测,提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度。本文首先采用年际增量和场信息耦合型预测方法研制中国夏季6~8月月际尺度降水动力和统计结合气候预测模型,之后根据月际尺度降水预测,开展季节平均降水预测。首先,基于前期观测信息和美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2.预测结果,选取前期12.观测的南太平洋中高纬关键区海温、1月北极关键区海冰密集度以及CFSv2.测系统2.起报的夏季同期关键区海温作为月际尺度降水预测因子,分别研制以上具有物理意义的单预测因子预测模型,并采用奇异值分解(SVD)误差订正方法对其改进;之后,利用多因子择优集合方案,研制预测效能较高且稳定的中国160站夏季月际尺度降水动力和统计结合预测模型,进而基于月际尺度预测开展夏季季节平均气候预测。1983~2.2.年夏季(6~8月)中国160站逐月降水预测模型的交叉检验结果表明:逐月回报与观测降水距平百分率的时间相关系数通过90%置信水平的站点占比分别为90%,88%,82.,多年平均的空间相关系数分别为0.39、0.40和0.39,均通过99%置信水平。针对2.2.~2.2.年连续三年同样拉尼娜背景下但不同中国夏季降水形势,开展月际—季节独立回报检验,其结果显示,2.2.~2.2.年6、7、8月预测降水距平百分率的趋势异常综合检验(PS)平均分分别为75、75和70分;夏季季节平均降水的PS评分分别为72.76和73分,均高于多年业务预测平均分。由此,考虑月际异常开展季节尺度气候预测是提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度的一个有效途径。

关键词：中国夏季月际—季节尺度动力和统计结合降水预测 SVD误差订正择优集合方案实时预测

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A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction research in China

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2015年第2期32卷 149-168页

作者： wang huijun {2. ke SUN Jianqi LI Shuanglin LIN Zhaohui ZHOU Guangqing CHEN Lijuan LANG Xianmei LI {2.g zhu Yali CHEN Hong ZHENG Fei nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of Sciences institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences National Climate center China Meteorological Administration

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930 s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950 s,based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980 s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate research program（WCRP） was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

关键词： seasonal prediction climate variability predictability

Relationship between Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy and Eurasian Winter Cold Events

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020年第6期37卷 652-661页

作者： Xinping XU Shengping HE huijun wang Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The profound impact of solar irradiance variations on the decadal variability of Earth’s climate has been investigated by previous ***,it remains a challenge to quantify the energetic particle precipitation(EPP)influence on the surface climate,which is an emerging research *** solar wind is a source of magnetospheric EPP,and the total energy input from the solar wind into Earth’s magnetosphere(Ein)shows remarkable interdecadal and interannual variability.B ased on the new Ein index,this study reveals a significant interannual relationship between the annual mean Einand Eurasian cold extremes in the subsequent *** frequent cold events are observed over Eurasia(primarily north of 50°N)following the higher-than-normal Ein activity in the previous year,accompanied by more frequent cold events over northern Africa,and vice *** response pattern shows great resemblance to the first empirical orthogonal function of the variability of cold extremes over Eurasia,with a spatial correlation coefficient of *** pronounced intensification of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation events and poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track associated with the anomalously higher Ein favor the anomalous extreme atmospheric circulation events,and thus less frequent extreme cold temperatures over northern Eurasia on the interannual time *** is further hypothesized that the wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere and troposphere is favorable for the connection of Ein signals to tropospheric circulation and climate in the following winter.

关键词： Eurasian interannual winter

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1706-1722页

作者： Wenyue HE Bo SUN huijun wang nansen-zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

atmospheric water vapor content(WVC)is a critical factor for East Asian winter *** study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying *** on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method,the leading mode(EOF1,R2.2..9%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China;the second mode(EOF2.R2.2..3%)of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern ***1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT)branches over northeastern China and eastern China,which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS)area in the preceding October-November(ON).EOF2.is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China,which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern *** circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature *** SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2.winter WVC,and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

关键词： interannual variability leading modes watervapor content East Asia

Strengthened Relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and ENSO After the Mid-1990s during Austral Spring

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2017年第1期34卷 54-65页

作者： Tingting HAN huijun wang Jianqi SUN nansen-zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

This paper documents a decadal strengthened co-variability of the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） and ENSO in austral spring after the mid-1990s. During the period 1979-93, the ENSO （AAO） spatial signatures are restricted to the tropicsmidlatitudes （Antarctic-midlatitudes） of the Southern Hemisphere （SH）, with a weak connection between the two oscillations. Comparatively, after the mid-1990s, the E1 Nifio-related atmospheric anomalies project on a negative AAO pattern with a barotropic structure in the mid-high latitudes of the SH. The expansion of E1 Nifio-related air temperature anomalies have a heightened impact on the meridional thermal structure of the SH, contributing to a weakened circumpolar westerly and strengthened subtropical jet. Meanwhile, the ENSO-related southern three-cell circulations expand poleward and then strongly couple the Antarctic and the tropics. Numerical simulation results suggest that the intensified connection between ENSO and SST in the South Pacific since the mid-1990s is responsible for the strengthened AAO-ENSO relationship.

关键词： ENSO Antarctic Oscillation South Pacific SST austral spring decadal change

Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in China

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Journal of Meteorological research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： Baoqiang TIAN ke fan nansen–zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in China during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2..(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in China is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–2.17 is 0.63.(2. For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2.initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2.and 1-month leads, CFSv2.has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4-, 3-, and 2.month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2.CFSv2. year-to-year increment prediction

Stratospheric Precursor of Non-Uniform Variation in Early Spring Surface Temperature over Eurasia

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Journal of Meteorological research 2017年第2期31卷 389-396页

作者： Fei LI huijun wang Yongqi GAO nansen-zhu {2. {2. Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China nansen Environmental and-Remote Sensing Centre and Bjerknes CentrejCor Climate research Bergen N-5006 Norway

The stratospheric influences on the non-uniform variation in early spring（March–April,MA）surface temperature over Eurasia is investigated based on the ERA-Interim,NCEP-1,and NCEP-2.reanalysis data for the period1980–2.16.A lead–lag correlation is found between preceding winter（December–February,DJF）stratospheric polar vortex displacements（SPVD）and the MA west–east seesaw pattern in surface temperature over *** analysis reveals that the East Asian jet stream may act as a bridge linking DJF SPVD and MA surface temperature over Eurasia.A positive change in SPVD is associated with a decelerated polar jet stream and an accelerated East Asian jet stream in the troposphere in *** East Asian jet stream signal can persist into *** a result,anomalous southerly/northerly winds prevail over western/eastern Eurasia,accounting for the west–east surface temperature seesaw over Eurasia.

关键词： stratospheric polar vortex displacement Eurasian surface temperature East Asian jet stream

An assessment of the subduction rate in the CMIP6 historical experiment

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第1期42卷 44-60页

作者： Shan Liu Xueyi Jing Xingrong Chen huijun wang National Marine Environmental Forecasting center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing100081China National Supercomputing center in Wuxi Wuxi214315China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

Subduction process is a dynamical bridge for the exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and subsurface ocean water,which is regarded as a central proxy for the ocean climate *** its key indicator in climate signals,it is of importance to examine the ability of a model to simulate the global subduction rate before investigating the climate *** this paper,we evaluated the ability of 2. climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the subduction *** general,the simulation ability of the models to the subduction climatology is better than that to the long-term variation *** on the comprehensive analysis of climatology distribution and long-term trend of the subduction rate,GISS-E2.1-G performs better in reproducing the subduction rate climatology and IPSL-CM6A-LR can simulate positive long-term trend for both the global mean subduction rate and the lateral induction term in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)***,it is still challenging to capture both the distribution characteristics of the subduction climatology and the long-term temporal trend for the 2. CMIP6 *** addition,the model results demonstrate that,the ACC area is the major region contributing to the long-term trend of the global mean subduction *** analysis in this paper indicates that the poor simulation ability of reproducing the long-term trend of global mean subduction rate might be attributed to the ocean dynamics,for example,the zonal velocity at the bottom mixed layer and zonal gradient of mixed layer depth.

关键词： subduction rate CMIP6 climatology long-term trend

Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第8期57卷 921-926页

作者： MA JieHua wang huijun ZHANG Yin nansen-zhu {2. {2. center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide *** snowstorms have raised an important scientific *** scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" *** then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2.concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate *** experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North *** Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all ***,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to *** addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关键词：大气环流模式冬季降水中国北方北极地区模式模拟夏季东亚冬季风二氧化碳浓度