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Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis:Insights from fluorography data

Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第3期7卷 374-386页

作者： Konstantin Konstantinovich Avilov Alexei Alexeevich Romanyukha evgeny mikhailovich belilovsky Sergey Evgenevich Borisov Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences8Gubkina Str.Moscow119333Russia Moscow Research and Clinical Center for Tuberculosis Control of the Moscow Government Department of Health 10Stromynka Str.Moscow107076Russia

Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis:unknown are both the rates of progression and the model“scheme”.The“parallel”scheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease,and the“serial”scheme considers all cases to be noninfectious at the onset,with some of them later becoming *** aim was to estimate the progression of the early stages of pulmonary tuberculosis using data from a present-day *** used the routine notification data from Moscow,Russia,2013e2018 that contained the results and time of the last fluorographic screening preceding the detection of tuberculosis *** provided time limits on the duration of untreated *** of TB progression under both models were *** the goodness of fit to the data,we could prefer neither the“parallel”,nor the“serial”model,although the latter had a bit worse *** the other hand,the observed rise in the fraction of infectious tuberculosis cases with the time since the last screening was explained by the“serial”model in a more plausible way e as gradual progression of some cases to ***“parallel”model explained it through less realistic quick removal of non-infectious cases and accumulation of the infectious *** results demonstrate the potential of using such detection data enriched with reassessments of the previous screenings.

关键词： Natural history of tuberculosis(TB) Mathematical modeling Minimal tuberculosis Model structure Fluorographic screening data

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