Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis:Insights from fluorography data

作     者：Konstantin Konstantinovich Avilov Alexei Alexeevich Romanyukha Evgeny Mikhailovich Belilovsky Sergey Evgenevich Borisov 

作者机构：Institute for Numerical MathematicsRussian Academy of Sciences8Gubkina Str.Moscow119333Russia Moscow Research and Clinical Center for Tuberculosis Control of the Moscow Government Department of Health10Stromynka Str.Moscow107076Russia 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第3期

页      面：374-386页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

基　　金：KKA and AAR were supported by the Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics(Agreement 075-15-2019-1624 with the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation) https://mathcenter.ru/en/.EMB and SEB were supported by research project No.AAAA-A20-120062990040-100Development of a program for expanded access to tuberculosis control measures for the population of the city of Moscow:medical,social and economic justification”funded by the Department of Health of the Moscow Government,https://mosgorzdrav.ru/en-US/index.html 

主　　题：Natural history of tuberculosis(TB) Mathematical modeling Minimal tuberculosis Model structure Fluorographic screening data 

摘      要：Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis:unknown are both the rates of progression and the model“scheme.The“parallelscheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease,and the“serialscheme considers all cases to be noninfectious at the onset,with some of them later becoming *** aim was to estimate the progression of the early stages of pulmonary tuberculosis using data from a present-day *** used the routine notification data from Moscow,Russia,2013e2018 that contained the results and time of the last fluorographic screening preceding the detection of tuberculosis *** provided time limits on the duration of untreated *** of TB progression under both models were *** the goodness of fit to the data,we could prefer neither the“parallel,nor the“serialmodel,although the latter had a bit worse *** the other hand,the observed rise in the fraction of infectious tuberculosis cases with the time since the last screening was explained by the“serialmodel in a more plausible way e as gradual progression of some cases to ***“parallelmodel explained it through less realistic quick removal of non-infectious cases and accumulation of the infectious *** results demonstrate the potential of using such detection data enriched with reassessments of the previous screenings.