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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19

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Infectious Disease modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1147-1162页

作者： Leonid Kalachev Jon Graham erin L.Landguth mathematical Sciences University of MontanaMissoulaUSA Center for Population Health Research School of Public and Community Health SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaUSA

Background:Under-reporting and,thus,uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting *** the problem of underreporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,the guidance and methods available for assessing and correcting the resulting bias are ***:We aim to design a simple modification to the Susceptible e Infected e Removed(SIR)model for estimating the fraction or proportion of reported infection ***:The suggested modification involves rescaling of the classical SIR model producing its mathematically equivalent version with explicit dependence on the reporting parameter(true proportion of cases reported).We justify the rescaling using the phase plane analysis of the SIR model system and show how this rescaling parameter can be estimated from the data along with the other model ***:We demonstrate how the proposed method is cross-validated using simulated data with known disease cases and then apply it to two empirical reported data sets to estimate the fraction of reported cases in missoula County,montana,USA,using:(1)flu data for 2016e2017 and(2)COVID-19 data for fall of ***:We establish with the simulated and COVID-19 data that when most of the disease cases are presumed reported,the value of the additional reporting parameter in the modified SIR model is close or equal to one,so that the original SIR model is appropriate for data ***,the flu example shows that when the reporting parameter is close to zero,the original SIR model is not accurately estimating the usual rate parameters,and the re-scaled SIR model should be *** research demonstrates the role of under-reporting of disease data and the importance of accounting for underreporting when modeling simulated,endemic,and pandemic disease *** reporting the“true”number of disease cases will have downstream impacts on predictions of disease dynamics.A simple parameter adjustment

关键词： modeling of epidemics SIR type models flu and COVID-19 Under-reporting parameter Proportion of reported disease cases

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家庭中杀虫剂浓度的时间变异性和对流行病学研究中衰减偏倚的启示

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环境与职业医学 2013年第8期30卷 647-647页

作者： Nicole C.Deziel mary H.Ward erin m.bell Todd P.Whitehead Robert B.Gunier melissa C.Friesen John R.Nuckols

[背景]已证实住宅杀虫剂暴露与成人和儿童的不良健康结局相关。高质量的暴露评估是确认这些关联的关键。以往的流行病学研究采用一次测量地毯灰尘中杀虫剂浓度来描述个体长期暴露的平均值。如果浓度随着时间的推移而变化，那么这种方法... 详细信息

[背景]已证实住宅杀虫剂暴露与成人和儿童的不良健康结局相关。高质量的暴露评估是确认这些关联的关键。以往的流行病学研究采用一次测量地毯灰尘中杀虫剂浓度来描述个体长期暴露的平均值。如果浓度随着时间的推移而变化，那么这种方法会导致对暴露明显的错误分类，削弱对风险的估计。[目的]评估地毯灰尘样本中杀虫剂浓度的可重复性和流行病学研究中依赖于一个样本的潜在衰减偏倚。[方法]在2003-2005年期间，从加州Fresno县的21个家庭中，重复收集地毯灰尘样本（中位数=3，范围1～7）。使用气相色谱-质谱法分析灰尘中的13种杀虫剂；采用混合效应模型估计家庭之间和家庭内的方差。计算每一种杀虫剂的组内相关系数（ICC），并估计收集单次灰尘样品的假设病例对照研究衰减回归系数。[结果]ICC的中位数为0．73（范围0．37—0．95），表明大多数杀虫剂家庭之间的变异性高于家庭内部的变异性。对于13种化合物中进行评估的7种，与使用单一灰尘样本相关的预期衰减偏倚估计为≤30％。[结论]对于研究的几种杀虫剂，使用一个灰尘样本代表约为2年的暴露期，其比值比不会大幅衰减。还需要进一步研究，以确定上述研究结果是否可以代表更长的暴露时间并且适用于其他杀虫剂。

关键词：灰尘环境暴露杀虫剂信度

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Cognitive function among military veterans with STEm occupations

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military medical Research 2024年第2期11卷 308-310页

作者： Justin T.mcDaniel Kevin N.Hascup erin R.Hascup Ugochukwu G.Ezigbo Amanda m.Weidhuner Harvey Henson David L.Albright Dale and Deborah Smith Center for Alzheimer's Research and trEatment(CARE) Southern Illinois University School of MedicineSpringfieldIL 62794USA STEm Education Research Center Southern Illinois UniversityCarbondaleIL 62901USA Department of Political Science The University of AlabamaTuscaloosaAL 35487USA

Dear Editor,There is limited research on the relationship between science,technology,engineering,and mathematics(STEm)occupational history and cognitive function in later life,especially among military veterans,who may be at greater risk for later-life cognitive *** study examines a nationally representative sample of military veterans to address this gap in knowledge.

关键词： Alzheimer's disease Veterans Science technology engineering and mathematics(STEm) Animal fluency test Dementia

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Inhaled volatile anesthetics in the intensive care unit

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World Journal of Critical Care medicine 2024年第1期13卷 28-39页

作者： erin D Wieruszewski mariam ElSaban Patrick m Wieruszewski Nathan J Smischney Department of Pharmacy Mayo ClinicRochesterMN 55905United States Anesthesiology and Perioperative medicine Mayo ClinicRochesterMN 55905United States Department of Anesthesiology&Perioperative medicine Mayo ClinicRochesterMN 55905United States

The discovery and utilization of volatile anesthetics has significantly transformed surgical practices since their inception in the mid-19th ***,a paradigm shift is observed as volatile anesthetics extend beyond traditional confines of the operating theatres,finding diverse applications in intensive care *** the dynamic landscape of intensive care,volatile anesthetics emerge as a promising avenue for addressing complex sedation requirements,managing refractory lung pathologies including acute respiratory distress syndrome and status asthmaticus,conditions of high sedative requirements including burns,high opioid or alcohol use and neurological conditions such as status *** anesthetics can be administered through either inhaled route via anesthetic machines/devices or through extracorporeal membrane oxygenation circuitry,providing intensivists with multiple options to tailor ***,their unique pharmacokinetic profiles render them titratable and empower clinicians to individualize management with heightened accuracy,mitigating risks associated with conventional sedation *** the amounting enthusiasm for the use of these therapies,barriers to widespread utilization include expanding equipment availability,staff familiarity and training of safe *** article delves into the realm of applying inhaled volatile anesthetics in the intensive care unit through discussing their pharmacology,administration considerations in intensive care settings,complication considerations,and listing indications and evidence of the use of volatile anesthetics in the critically ill patient population.

关键词： Anesthesia Critical care mechanical ventilation Sedation Volatile anesthetics Sedative

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Changes in physical activity and sleep following the COVID-19 pandemic on a university campus:Perception versus reality

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Sports medicine and Health Science 2024年第3期6卷 246-251页

作者： Bryce T.Daniels Samantha Robinson Ivan Vargas Jamie I.Baum erin K.Howie University of Arkansas FayettevilleARUnited States Rush University medical Center ChicagoIllinoisUnited States1 University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture FayettevilleARUnited States

It has been hypothesized that key lifestyle behaviors of physical activity and sleep worsened in response to the Coronavirus disease(COVID-19)***,there have been inconsistencies in findings of changes in these key lifestyle behaviors across populations likely due to the wide variety of assessment *** purpose of the study was to compare physical activity and sleep before and after the COVID-19 pandemic using accelerometers and self-reported behaviors.A longitudinal follow-up was conducted on students,faculty,and staff at a university campus in the United *** the periods before march 2020(covering the academic years of 2018–2019 or 2019–2020)and again in April–June 2021,participants completed surveys to evaluate their physical activity and sleep behaviors and wore an accelerometer.A total of 44 participants completed the survey at both timepoints and 32 completed accelerometer assessment at both ***-seven percent of participants reported a perceived decline in physical activity,while 30%reported a worsening in *** selfreported data,overall physical activity did not change,but there was a decrease in active transport(pmestic physical activity(p?0.012).Sleep quality decreased as evidenced by an increase in Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index scores(p?0.045).There were no changes in accelerometer measured physical activity or *** were no changes in physical or mental *** perceptions of physical activity declined from prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,there were no changes in device-measured physical activity,and changes in self-reported physical activity differed by domain.

关键词： movement Longitudinal measurement

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Distinct immune escape and microenvironment between RG-like and pri-OPC-like glioma revealed by single-cell RNA-seq analysis

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Frontiers of medicine 2024年第1期18卷 147-168页

作者： Weiwei Xian mohammad Asad Shuai Wu Zhixin Bai Fengjiao Li Junfeng Lu Gaoyu Zu erin Brintnell Hong Chen Ying mao Guomin Zhou Bo Liao Jinsong Wu Edwin Wang Linya You Department of Human Anatomy&Histoembryology School of Basic Medical SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai200032China Cumming School of medicine University of CalgaryCalgaryAlbertaT2N 4N1Canada Glioma Surgery Division Department of NeurosurgeryHuashan HospitalFudan UniversityShanghai200040China Department of Pathology Huashan HospitalFudan UniversityShanghai200040China Department of Neurosurgery Huashan HospitalFudan UniversityShanghai200040China Shanghai Key Laboratory of medical Imaging Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention Fudan UniversityShanghai200040China School of mathematics and Statistics Hainan Normal UniversityHaikou570100China

The association of neurogenesis and gliogenesis with glioma remains *** conducting single-cell RNA-seq analyses on 26 gliomas,we reported their classification into primitive oligodendrocyte precursor cell(pri-OPC)-like and radial glia(RG)-like tumors and validated it in a public cohort and TCGA *** RG-like tumors exhibited wild-type isocitrate dehydrogenase and tended to carry EGFR mutations,and the pri-OPC-like ones were prone to carrying TP53 *** subclones only in pri-OPC-like tumors showed substantially down-regulated mHC-I genes,suggesting their distinct immune evasion ***,the two subgroups appeared to extensively modulate glioma-infiltrating lymphocytes in distinct *** specific genes not expressed in normal immune cells were found in glioma-infiltrating *** example,glial/glioma stem cell markers OLIG1/PTPRZ1 and B cell-specific receptors IGLC2/IGKC were expressed in pri-OPC-like and RG-like glioma-infiltrating lymphocytes,*** expression was positively correlated with those of immune checkpoint genes(e.g.,LGALS33)and poor survivals as validated by the increased expression of LGALS3 upon IGKC overexpression in Jurkat *** finding indicated a potential inhibitory role in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and could provide a new way of cancer immune evasion.

关键词： single-cell RNA-seq glioma radial glia primitive oligodendrocyte precursor cell immune escape

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Efficacy of nonsolvent flower pollen extracts in healthy women with urinary incontinence:A randomized,double-blind,placebo-controlled,parallel study

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Current Urology 2024年第3期18卷 203-211页

作者： marc moulin erin D.Lewis David C.Crowley Colleen E.may malkanthi Evans KGK Science Inc. LondonOntarioCanada Graminex L.L.C.SaginawMIUSA

Background Urinary incontinence(UI)is a debilitating and common condition that adversely affects quality of *** and surgical approaches for managing UI symptoms may result in undesirable risks and *** randomized,double-blind,placebo-controlled,parallel study investigated the efficacy of 2 nonsolvent flower pollen extracts on UI in healthy *** and methods One-hundred and fourteen women aged 40–75 years who scored≥5 on the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence Short Form(ICIQ-SF)were randomized to receive either Graminex®RCT Fem™UI,Graminex®PollenBerry®,or placebo for 24 *** primary outcome was the change in the ICIQ-SF score between the trial and placebo groups after 24 weeks of *** secondary outcomes included changes in the frequency of nocturia(recorded in 3-day void diaries)and 24-hour leakage volume(assessed via pad weight)after 6,12,18,and 24 weeks of supplementation and changes in stress-induced urinary leakage volume(after completion of a provocative maneuver challenge)after 24 weeks of *** All the groups demonstrated improvement in ICIQ-SF scores at week 24(pm™UI group had the greatest improvement in ICIQ-SF scores(−4.07±3.4),followed by the PollenBerry®group(−3.34±2.87)and placebo group(−2.61±3.52).The RCT Fem™UI group had corresponding improvements in 24-hour leakage volume(−17.68±39.84 g)and frequency of nocturia(−0.52±1.26)(p≤0.05).PollenBerry®supplementation significantly improved stress-induced urinary leakage volume(−7.12±15.64 g)at week *** study products demonstrated safe hematological and chemical *** RCT Fem™UI supplementation resulted in significant and clinically meaningful reductions in UI severity,with corresponding improvements in daily urinary leakage volume and frequency of ***®significantly improved stress-induced urinary leakage volume,suggesting that it may be eff

关键词： Urinary incontinence Pollen extract Healthy women Dietary supplement ICIQ-SF Urinary leakage

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保费上涨成为年轻一代新烦恼

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商业周刊（中文版） 2024年第2期 23-24页

作者： erin Lowry 逸思(译) 不详

成年人常常觉得自己面临着没完没了的待办事项,还不得不在知之甚少或毫无经验的情况下做出重大决策——很有可能导致可怕后果。这听上去或许有些夸张,但从买房到选择医疗保险,再到正确填写W-4税表,如果出现失误,都会带来严重经济后果。... 详细信息

成年人常常觉得自己面临着没完没了的待办事项,还不得不在知之甚少或毫无经验的情况下做出重大决策——很有可能导致可怕后果。这听上去或许有些夸张,但从买房到选择医疗保险,再到正确填写W-4税表,如果出现失误,都会带来严重经济后果。也许,决策方面的疲劳感正是许多人。

关键词：疲劳感医疗保险年轻一代成年人

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蓝莓不是蓝色的

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中学生英语 2024年第27期 36-37页

作者： erin Garcia de Jesús 陈佳武汉市光谷五小

Roses are red and blueberries look *** the berry's color is not really *** fruit's waxy1coat just masquerades2as blue.玫瑰是红色的,蓝莓看起来是蓝色的。但蓝莓的颜色并不是真的。这种水果的蜡质外皮只是伪装成蓝色。A waxy covering coats some blue-colored fruits—such as blueberries,dark grapes and certain *** wax contains a host of tiny structures,each less th an a th ousandth the thickness of a piece of paper.

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Elite,transformable haploid inducers in maize

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The Crop Journal 2024年第1期12卷 314-319页

作者： Brent Delzer Dawei Liang David Szwerdszarf Isadora Rodriguez Gonzalo mardones Sivamani Elumalai Francine Johnson Samson Nalapalli Rachel Egger erin Burch Kerry meier Juan Wei Xiujuan Zhang Huaping Gui Huaibing Jin Huan Guo Kun Yu Yubo Liu Becky Breitinger Ana Poets Jason Nichols Wan Shi David Skibbe Qiudeng Que Timothy Kelliher Seeds Development Syngenta SeedsJanesvilleWI 53546USA Seeds Research Syngenta Biotechnology China Co.Ltd.Beijing 102206China Centro de Investigación de Cultivos Arica Syngenta R&DArica 1000000Chile Syngenta S.A. Proyecto la SoledadGraneros 2880000Chile Seeds Research Syngenta Crop Protection LLCRTPNC 27709USA Seeds Development Syngenta SeedsSlaterIA 50244USA

The introduction of alleles into commercial crop breeding pipelines is both time consuming and *** technologies that are disrupting traditional breeding processes are doubled haploid(DH)breeding and genome editing(GE).Recently,these techniques were combined into a GE trait delivery system called HI-Edit(Haploid Inducer-Edit).In HI-Edit,the pollen of a haploid inducer line is reprogrammed to deliver GE traits to any variety,obviating recurrent *** HI-Edit to operate at scale,an efficient transformable HI line is needed,but most maize varieties are recalcitrant to transformation,and haploid inducers are especially difficult to transform given their aberrant reproductive *** marker assisted selection and a three-tiered testing scheme,we report the development of new Iodent and Stiff Stalk maize germplasm that are transformable,have high haploid induction rates,and exhibit a robust,genetically-dominant anthocyanin native trait that may be used for rapid haploid *** show that transformation of these elite‘‘HI-Edit”lines is enhanced using the BABYBOOm and WUSCHEL morphogenetic ***,we evaluate the HI-Edit performance of one of the lines against both Stiff Stalk and non-Stiff Stalk *** strategy and results of this study should facilitate the development of commercially scalable HI-Edit systems in diverse crops.

关键词： Zea mays L Doubled haploids Transformation Genome editing QTL

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