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Time-Series Modeling and Prediction of Global Monthly Absolute Temperature for Environmental Decision Making

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 382-396页

作者： YE Liming YANG Guixia eric van ranst TANG Huajun Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics Ministry of Agriculture/Institute ofAgricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 Department of Geology and Soil Science (WE13) Ghent University Krijgslaan 281 9000 Gent Belgium Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined （DSC） approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average （SARIMA） models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term （10-year） environmental planning and decision making.

关键词： time series analysis statistical model polynomial trend Fourier method ARIMA climatechange

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Temperature and Precipitation Suitability Evaluation for the Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Cropping System in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

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Agricultural Sciences in China 2011年第2期10卷 275-288页

作者： Nguyen Thanh Tuan QIU Jian-jun Ann Verdoodt LI Hu eric van ranst Vietnam National Museum of Nature Vietnamese Academy of Science and TechnologyHa Noi 0000Vietnam Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences（CAAS）Beijing 100081P.R.China Laboratory of Soil Science Department of Geology and Soil Science（WE13）Ghent UniversityB-9000 GhentBelgium

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the most important winter wheat and maize production region in *** response to the increasing population pressure,the Chinese authorities strongly invested in improving the irrigation systems and increasing ground and surface water exploitation within the plain to increase the crop *** resulted in a reduction of water resource availability and in turn indirectly affected the suitability of various agricultural ecosystems in the *** main purpose of this study was to review the suitability of temperature and precipitation for the winter wheat and summer maize cropping system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,in order to provide a preliminary irrigation *** analysis provides a first attempt to enhance the water resource management as well as to increase the water use *** this aim,a GIS-based multicriteria analysis procedure has been developed consisting of（1） definition of objectives（evaluated entities） and database building;（2） definition of evaluation criteria;（3） standardization of the criteria;（4） combination of the criteria;（5） classification of the objectives;and（6） integration of the *** land suitability classification maps were transformed into maps of required irrigation amounts for each growing stage of the winter wheat and summer maize cropping *** study also exemplified the limitations and proposed future research activities that will improve the detail and accuracy of the evaluation results.

关键词： GIS multicriteria Huang-Huai-Hai Plain precipitation suitability irrigation

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Chemical Weathering of New Pyroclastic Deposits from Mt. Merapi (Java), Indonesia

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Journal of Mountain Science 2009年第3期6卷 240-254页

作者： Dian Fiantis Malik Nelson eric van ranst Jusop Shamshuddin Nikolla P. Qafoku Department of Soil Science Faculty of Agriculture University of Andalas Kampus Unand Limau Manis Department of Crop Estate Polytechnic of Agriculture University of Andalas Kampus Politani Tanjung Pati Department of Geology and Soil Science (WE13) Laboratory of Soil Science Ghent University Department of Land Management Faculty of Agriculture Universiti Putra Malaysia Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The Java Island, Indonesia with abundant amount of pyroclastic deposits is located in the very active and dynamic Pacific Ring of Fires. Studying the geochemical weathering indices of these pyroclastic deposits is important to get a clear picture about weathering profiles on deposits resulting from the eruption of Mt. Merapi. Immediately after the first phase of the eruption (March to June 2006), moist and leached pyroclastic deposits were collected. These pyroclastic deposits were found to be composed of volcanic glass, plagioclase feldspar in various proportions, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, olivine, amphibole and titanomagnetite. The total elemental composition of the bulk samples (including trace elements and heavy metals) was determined by wet chemical methods and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses. Weathering of the pyroclastic deposits was studied using various weathering indices. The Ruxton ratio, weathering index of Parker, Vought resudual index and chemical index of weathering of moist pyroclastic deposits were lower than those of the leached samples, but the alteration indices (chemical and plagioclase) were slightly higher in the moist compared to the leached pyroclastic deposits.

关键词：火山碎屑化学风化碎屑沉积印度尼西亚火山爆发单斜辉石指数和 X射线荧光

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The breakfast imperative： The changing context of global food security

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2016年第6期15卷 1179-1185页

作者： YE Li-ming Jean-Paul Malingreau TANG Hua-jun eric van ranst Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081P.R.China CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security Beijing 100081P.R.China Department of Geology and Soil Science(WE13) Ghent University9000 GentBelgium Earth and Life Institute Universite Catholique de Louvain1348 Louvain-la-NeuveBelgium

The debate on global food security has regained vigor since the food crisis of 2008, when a sudden spike in the prices of staple food commodities dramatically demonstrated that securing the supply and accessibility of food for a world of nine billion people in 2050 cannot be taken for grant- ed （Godfray etal. 2010; Swinnen and Squicciarini 2012;

关键词： The breakfast imperative The changing context of global food security

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Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Storage and Its Dynamics in Croplands of China

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Agricultural Sciences in China 2010年第5期9卷 704-712页

作者： TANG Hua-jun QIU Jian-jun WANG Li-gang LI Hu LI Chang-sheng eric van ranst Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 P.R.China Institute for the Study of Earth Oceans and Space University of New Hampshire Durham NH 03824 USA Department of Geology and Soil Science (WE13)/Laboratory of Soil Science Ghent University Gent B-9000 Belgium

Soil organic carbon （SOC） is one of the centre issues related to not only soil fertility but also environmental safety. Assessing SOC dynamics in croplands has been a challenge in China for long due to the lack of appropriate methodologies and data sources. As an alternative approach for studying SOC dynamics, process-based models are adopted to meet the needs. In this paper, a process-based model, DeNitrification-DeComposition （DNDC）, was applied to quantify the SOC storage and the spatial distribution in croplands of China in 2003, with the support of a newly compiled county-level soil/ climate/land use database. The simulated results showed that the total SOC storage in the top layer （0-30 cm） of the 1.18 × 10^8 ha croplands of China is 4.7-5.2 Pg C in 2003 with an average value of 4.95 Pg C. The SOC storage in the northeastern provinces （1.3 Pg C） accounts for about 1/4 of the whole national totals due to their dominantly fertile soils with high organic matter content. SOC density ranges from 3.9 to 4.4 kg C m 2, with an average of 4.2 kg C m^-2, a level is much lower than the world average level. The model results also indicated that high rates of SOC losses occurred in the croplands with the most common cropping patterns in China as like single soybean 〉 maize 〉 paddy 〉 cotton 〉 winter wheat and corn rotation. The results reported in this paper showed that there was still a great potential for improving SOC status in most croplands of China by adopting proper farming practices and land-use pattern. Therefore, long-term policy to protect SOC is urgently needed.

关键词： China cropland DNDC model soil organic carbon

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Modeling the Impacts of Soil Organic Carbon Content of Croplands on Crop Yields in China

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Agricultural Sciences in China 2009年第4期8卷 464-471页

作者： QIU Jian-jun WANG Li-gang LI HU TANG Hua-jun LI Chang-sheng eric van ranst Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing 100081 P.R. China Institute for the Study of Earth Ocean and Space University of New Hampshire Durham NH 03824 USA Department of Geology and Soil Science (WEI3) Laboratory of Soil Science Ghent University Krijgslaan 281 (S8) B-9000 Gent Belgium

This study quantified the impacts of soil organic carbon （SOC） content on the grain yield of crops using a biogeochemical model （DNDC, denitrification-decomposition）. Data on climate, soil properties, and farming management regimes of cropping systems were collected from six typical agricultural zones （northeast, north, northwest, mid-south, east and southwest regions of China, respectively） and integrated into a GIS database to support the model runs. According to the model, if the initial SOC content in the cropland was increased by 1 g C kg^-1, the crop yield may be increased by 176 kg ha^-1 for maize in the northeast region, 454 kg ha^-1 for a maize-wheat rotation in the north region, 328 kg ha^-1 for maize in the northwest region, 185 kg ha^-1 for single-rice in the mid-south region, 266 kg ha^-1 for double-rice in east region, and 229 kg ha^-1 for rice and wheat rotation in southwest region. There is a great potential for enhancing the crop yield by improving the SOC content in each region of China.

关键词： soil organic carbon grain yield carbon sequestration DNDC model

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Impact of enclosure management on soil properties and microbial biomass in a restored semi-arid rangeland, Kenya

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Journal of Arid Land 2014年第5期6卷 561-570页

作者： Stephen M MUREITHI Ann VERDOODT Charles KK GACHENE Jesse T NJOKA Vivian O WASONGA Stefaan De NEVE Elizabeth MEYERHOFF eric van ranst Laboratory of Soil Science Department of Geology and Soil Science Ghent University Department of Land Resources Management and Agricultural Technology University of Nairobi Research Unit of Soil Degradation and Conservation Department of Soil Management Ghent University Rehabilitation of Arid Environments Trust

Rangeland degradation is a serious problem throughout sub-Saharan Africa and its restoration is a challenge for the management of arid and semi-arid areas. In Lake Baringo Basin of Kenya, communities and individual farmers are restoring indigenous vegetation inside enclosures in an effort to combat severe land degradation and address their livelihood problems. This study evaluated the impact of enclosure management on soil properties and microbial biomass, being key indicators of soil ecosystem health. Six reseeded communal enclosures using soil embankments as water-harvesting structures and strictly regulated access were selected, varying in age from 13 to 23 years. In six private enclosures, ranging from 3 to 17 years in age, individual farmers emulated the communal enclosure strategy and restored areas for their exclusive use. Significant decreases in bulk density, and increases in the soil organic carbon, total nitrogen and microbial biomass contents and stocks were found in the enclosures as compared with the degraded open rangeland. In the private enclosures, the impact of rehabilitation on the soil quality was variable, and soil quality was in general lower than that obtained under communal management. The significant increase of absolute stocks of carbon, nitrogen and microbial biomass compared to the degraded open rangeland indicates the potential for the restoration of soil quality through range rehabilitation. Over-sowing with indigenous legume fodder species could improve total nitrogen content in the soil and nutritional value of the pastures as well.

关键词： rangeland degradation enclosures microbial biomass rehabilitation reseeding soil quality Kenya

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Short-Range-Order Minerals and Dominant Accessory Properties Controlling P Sorption in Tropical Tephra Soils of the Cameroon Volcanic Line

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Open Journal of Soil Science 2019年第8期9卷 113-139页

作者： Roger Kogge Enang Bernard Palmer Kfuban Yerima Georges Kogge Kome eric van ranst Soil Science Department Faculty of Agronomy and Agricultural Sciences University of Dschang Dschang Cameroon Geology Department Faculty of Sciences Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Knowledge on soil properties likely to influence P sorption in tephra soils is very important for sustainable management of available P. Sorption studies on six tephra soils were conducted to relate P sorption to soil characteristics in order to identify those with potential influence on P sorption. Four equilibrium-based sorption models commonly encountered in soil studies (Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and van Huay) were used to describe P sorption in the soils. P sorption was determined by measuring the residual P content of a clarified equilibrating solution of 0.02 N KCl containing varying concentrations (0, 5, 10, 15, 30, 40, 50, 60, 80, and 100 mg/L) of P as KH2PO4 after mixing with 1 g of soil in duplicates for 16 hours at 25°C. Maximum amount of P sorbed for the varying P concentrations used ranged from 2080 to 5402 mg/kg with a potential for greater P sorption maxima at higher P solution concentrations. P sorption in these soils was best described by the Langmuir and Freundlich models. Allophane and ferrihydrite are the principal species controlling the high P sorption in these soils. pH-NaF proved to be a potentially reliable test for assessing the presence of allophanic materials and thus for estimating P sorbed. This work would guide both effective and efficient P fertilizer management with economic implications for both the study area and similar environments.

关键词： Allophane Ferrihydrite Mount Kupe Mount Manengouba Sorption Isotherms

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农田土壤有机碳含量对作物产量影响的模拟研究

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中国农业科学 2009年第1期42卷 154-161页

作者：邱建军王立刚李虎唐华俊 eric van ranst 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所/农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室 Department of Geology and Soil Science(WE13) Laboratory of Soil ScienceGhent UniversityBelgium

【目的】探求土壤有机碳含量对作物产量的影响,以期为保障国家粮食安全和耕地持续利用与管理提供决策依据。【方法】利用农田生态系统生物地球化学模型DNDC,针对中国东北、华北、西北、中南、华东和西南6个典型农业区域,每个区域选择各... 详细信息

【目的】探求土壤有机碳含量对作物产量的影响,以期为保障国家粮食安全和耕地持续利用与管理提供决策依据。【方法】利用农田生态系统生物地球化学模型DNDC,针对中国东北、华北、西北、中南、华东和西南6个典型农业区域,每个区域选择各自典型的种植模式和现行的农田管理措施,在各自特定的土壤和气候条件下,输入并运行模型,模拟考察在其它投入条件不变的情况下,改变土壤有机碳本底值对作物产量的影响。【结果】当土壤有机碳含量(SOC)增加1g ***-1,东北地区玉米产量可增加176kg·hm-2;华北地区夏玉米与冬小麦轮作,产量可增加约454kg·hm-2;西北地区春玉米产量约可增加328kg·hm-2;中南地区单季水稻产量可增加约185kg·hm-2;华东地区双季稻产量可增加约266kg·hm-2;西南地区水稻与冬小麦轮作产量可增加约229kg·hm-2。【结论】在其它投入既定的条件下,全国各地区均存在通过提高耕地土壤有机碳含量来增加作物产量的潜力。保持较高水平的土壤有机碳含量对节本增效具有十分明显的作用。

关键词：土壤有机碳粮食产量碳固存 DNDC模型

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Supplementation of vitamin E or a botanical extract as antioxidants to improve growth performance and health of growing pigs housed under thermoneutral or heat-stressed conditions

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Journal of Animal Science and Biotechnology 2024年第3期15卷 1101-1118页

作者： Ysenia V.Silva‑Guillen Consuelo Arellano Jeffrey Wiegert R.Dean Boyd Gabriela E.Martinez eric van Heugten Department of Animal Science North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC 27695USA Department of Statistics North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC 27695USA Department of Animal Science Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationTX 77843USA Animal Nutrition Research LLCAlvatonKY 42122USA.

Background Heat stress has severe negative consequences on performance and health of pigs,leading to significant economic *** objective of this study was to investigate the effects of supplemental vitamin E and a botanical extract in feed or drinking water on growth performance,intestinal health,and oxidative and immune status in grow-ing pigs housed under heat stress *** Duplicate experiments were conducted,each using 64 crossbred pigs with an initial body weight of 50.7±3.8 and 43.9±3.6 kg and age of 13-week and 12-week,***(n=128)were housed individually and assigned within weight blocks and sex to a 2×4 factorial arrangement consisting of 2 environments(thermo-neutral(21.2℃)or heat-stressed(30.9℃))and 4 supplementation treatments(control diet;control+100 IU/L of D-α-tocopherol in water;control+200 IU/kg of DL-α-tocopheryl-acetate in feed;or control+400 mg/kg of a botanical extract in feed).Results Heat stress for 28 d reduced(P≤0.001)final body weight,average daily gain,and average daily feed intake(-7.4 kg,-26.7%,and-25.4%,respectively)but no effects of supplementation were detected(P>0.05).Serum vitamin E increased(P<0.001)with vitamin E supplementation in water and in feed(1.64 vs.3.59 and 1.64 vs.3.24),but not for the botanical extract(1.64 vs.1.67 mg/kg)and was greater when supplemented in water ***(P=0.002).Liver vitamin E increased(P<0.001)with vitamin E supplementations in water(3.9 vs.31.8)and feed(3.9 vs.18.0),but not with the botanical extract(3.9 vs.4.9 mg/kg).Serum malondialdehyde was reduced with heat stress on d 2,but increased on d 28(interaction,P<0.001),and was greater(P<0.05)for antioxidant supplementation compared to *** proliferation was reduced(P=0.037)in the jejunum under heat stress,but increased in the ileum when vitamin E was supplemented in feed and water under heat stress(interaction,P=0.04).Tumor necrosis factor-αin jejunum and ileum mucosa decreased by heat stress(P<0.05)and was re

关键词： Botanical extract Growing pigs Heat stress Immune status Oxidative status Tocopherol Water

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