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Effect of climate change on spatial distribution of scorpions of significant public health importance in Iran

Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第11期13卷 503-514页

作者： Javad Rafinejad Mehran Shahi Shahrokh Navidpour elham jahanifard Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd Department of Medical Entomology&Vector Control School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Medical Entomology&Vector Control School of Public HealthHormozgan University of Medical SciencesBandar AbbasIran Infectious&Tropical Diseases Research Center Hormozgan Health InstituteHormozgan University of Medical SciencesBandar AbbasIran Razi Reference Laboratory of Scorpion Research Razi Vaccine and Serum Research InstituteAgricultural Research Education and Extension Organization(AREEO)KarajIran Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control School of Public HealthAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesAhvazIran

Objective:To establish a spatial geo-database for scorpions in Iran,and to identify the suitable ecological niches for the most dangerous scorpion species under different climate change ***:The spatial distribution of six poisonous scorpion species of Iran were modeled:Hemiscorpius lepturus,Androctonus crassicauda,Mesobuthus eupeus,Hottentotta saulcyi,Hottentotta zagrosensis,and Odontobuthus(O.)doriae,under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change *** Max Ent ecological niche model was used to predict climate suitability for these scorpion species in the 2030 s and 2050 s,and the data were compared with environmental suitability under the current bioclimatic ***:A total of 73 species and subspecies of scorpions belonging to 19 genera in Iran were *** Province has the highest species diversity with 34 species and *** most poisonous scorpion species of Iran are scattered in the semi-arid climates,at an altitudinal range between 11 m and 2954 m above sea *** is projected that ***,Androctonus crassicauda and Mesobuthus eupeus species would be widely distributed in most parts of the country,whereas the most suitable ecological niches for the other species would be limited to the west and/or southwestern part of ***:Although the environmental suitability for all the species would change under the two climate change scenarios,the change would be more significant for *** under RCP8.5 in the 2050 *** findings can be used as basis for future studies in the areas with the highest environmental suitability for the most dangerous scorpion species to fill the gaps in the ecology of scorpion species in these areas.

关键词： Scorpion Niche modeling Climate change Iran

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