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An optimal control model of mosquito reduction management in a dengue endemic region

International Journal of Biomathematics 2014年第5期7卷 145-166页

作者： Karunia Putra Wijaya Thomas Gotz edy soewono Mathematical Institute University of Koblenz 56070 Koblenz Germany Department of MathematicsBandung Institute of Technology Bandung 40132 Indonesia

Aedes aegypti is known as the responsible vector in transmitting dengue flavivirus. Unavailability of medication to cure the transmission in human blood becomes a global health issue in recent decades. World epidemiologists are encouraged to focus on investigation toward an effective and inexpensive way to prevent dengue transmission, i.e. mosquito control. In this paper, we present a model depicting the dynamics of mosquito population based on indoor-outdoor life cycle classification. The basic mosquito offspring number is obtained and analysis of equilibria is shown. We bring along a discussion on application of optimal control model which engineers two simultaneous schemes. The first scheme is done by disseminating chemical like Temephos in spots where eggs and larvae develop, meanwhile the second scheme is done by conducting fumigation through areas where adult mosquitoes prevalently nest, indoor as well as outdoor. A version of gradient-based method is presented to set down a workflow in minimizing the objective functional with respect to control variable. Numerical results from analysis of the basic mosquito offspring number with constant control and from optimal control suggest that one has to enhance the usage of fumigation rather than Temephos. It is also suggested that applying both control schemes simultaneously gives the most significant reduction to the population.

关键词： Mosquito population dynamics mosquito reduction management the basicmosquito offspring number optimal control.

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Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City,Indonesia

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第3期7卷 430-447页

作者： Juni Wijayanti Puspita Muhammad Fakhruddin Nuning Nuraini edy soewono Doctoral Program of Mathematics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungJl.Ganesha10Bandung40132Jawa BaratIndonesia Department of Mathematics Faculty of Military Mathematics and Natural SciencesThe Republic of Indonesia Defense UniversityIPSC AreaSentulBogor16810Indonesia Department of Mathematics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungJl.Ganesha10Bandung40132Jawa BaratIndonesia

Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries,including Indonesia,characterized by high morbidity and wide *** is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups,which can have implications for dengue control strategies.A time-dependent four−age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study.A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age *** incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital,Bandung,Indonesia,from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection *** used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group:the annual force of infection(FoI)and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission *** results showed that the yearly FoI of children(age 0–4 years)increased significantly from 2014 to 2015,at 10.08%.Overall,the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters(age 5–14 years),with a FoI of about 6%per *** addition,based on the daily effective reproduction ratio,it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children.

关键词： age structure model dengue transmission effective reproduction ratio force of infection

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Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 598-611页

作者： Nuning Nuraini Ilham Saiful Fauzi Muhammad Fakhruddin Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan edy soewono Department of Mathematics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungBandung40132Indonesia Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Institut Teknologi BandungBandung40132Indonesia Department of Mathematics Faculty of Military Mathematics and Natural SciencesThe Republic of Indonesia Defense UniversityIPSC AreaSentulBogor16810Indonesia Center for Research and Development Indonesian Agency for MeteorologyClimatology and GeophysicsJakarta10720Indonesia

Background:Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne diseases,which is considered to be a major health concern in tropical and sub-tropical *** is strongly believed that the spread and abundance of vectors are related to *** of climate-based mathematical model that integrates meteorological factors into disease infection model becomes compelling challenge since the climate is positively associated with both incidence and vector ***:A host-vector model is constructed to simulate the dynamic of *** infection rate parameter is replaced with the time-dependent coefficient obtained by optimization to approximate the daily dengue ***,the optimized infection rate is denoted as a function of climate variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL)***:The infection parameter can be extended when updated daily climates are known,and it can be useful to forecast dengue *** approach provides proper prediction,even when tested in increasing or decreasing prediction *** addition,associations between climate and dengue are presented as a reversed slide-shaped curve for dengue-humidity and a reversed U-shaped curves for dengue-temperature and *** range of optimal temperature for infection is *** and precipitation are positively associated with dengue upper the threshold 70%at lag 38 days and below 50 mm at lag 50 days,***:Identification of association between climate and dengue is potentially useful to counter the high risk of dengue and strengthen the public health system and reduce the increase of the dengue burden.

关键词： Dengue Climate Host-vector model Infection rate Prediction Descriptive analysis

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