Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City,Indonesia
作者机构：Doctoral Program of MathematicsFaculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungJl.Ganesha10Bandung40132Jawa BaratIndonesia Department of MathematicsFaculty of Military Mathematics and Natural SciencesThe Republic of Indonesia Defense UniversityIPSC AreaSentulBogor16810Indonesia Department of MathematicsFaculty of Mathematics and Natural SciencesInstitut Teknologi BandungJl.Ganesha10Bandung40132Jawa BaratIndonesia
出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)
年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第3期
页 面：430-447页
学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学]
基 金：Part of the research is funded by the Indonesian PDUPT RistekBrin 2021(No:120M/IT1.C02/TA.00/2021) the Indonesian Penelitian Disertasi Doktor RistekBrin 2021(No:120J/IT1.C02/TA.00/2021)
主 题：age structure model dengue transmission effective reproduction ratio force of infection
摘 要：Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries,including Indonesia,characterized by high morbidity and wide *** is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups,which can have implications for dengue control strategies.A time-dependent four−age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study.A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age *** incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital,Bandung,Indonesia,from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection *** used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group:the annual force of infection(FoI)and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission *** results showed that the yearly FoI of children(age 0–4 years)increased significantly from 2014 to 2015,at 10.08%.Overall,the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters(age 5–14 years),with a FoI of about 6%per *** addition,based on the daily effective reproduction ratio,it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children.
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