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Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in kenya

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 15-23页

作者： Mark kimathi Samuel Mwalili Viona Ojiambo duncan kioi Gathungu Department of Mathematics and Statistics Machakos UniversityMachakosKenya Center for Health Analytics and Modeling Strathmore UniversityNairobiKenya School of Mathematical Sciences Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and TechnologyNairobiKenya

Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus *** reported its first case on March 13,2020 and by March 16,2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic *** age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and *** between different ages are incorporated via contact *** results show that 45%reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5e13%reduction of infections severity and deaths,while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8e22.7%*** peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation,which happened a month after mitigations were *** numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic *** numbers of cases are reported in the 15e29 years and 30e59 years age *** mitigation periods,considered in the study,resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases,attack rates,hospital and ICU bed demands,as well as deaths,with the 190-days period giving higher reductions.

关键词： Coronavirus Non-pharmaceutical intervention Age structured Contact matrix Mathematical model

Associations between aerobic and muscle-strengthening physical activity,sleep duration,and risk of all-cause mortality:A prospective cohort study of 282,473 ***

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Journal of Sport and Health Science 2023年第1期12卷 65-72页

作者： Mitch J.duncan Stina Oftedal Christopher E kline Ronald C.Plotnikoff Elizabeth G.Holliday School of Medicine&Public Health College of HealthMedicineand WellbeingThe University of NewcastleCallaghanNSW 2308Australia Priority Research Centre for Physical Activity and Nutrition The University of NewcastleCallaghanNSW 2308Australia Department of Health&Human Development The University of PittsburghPittsburghPA 15261USA School of Education University of NewcastleCallaghanNSW 2308Australia

Purpose:To examine the joint associations between meeting guidelines for physical activity(PA)and sleep duration and all-cause mortality risk among ***:Participants were adults(n=282,473)aged 18-84 years who participated in the 2004-2014 *** Health Interview *** status was ascertained using the National Death Index through December ***-reported PA(Active:meeting both aerobic(AER)and muscle-strengthening(MSA)guidelines,AER only(AER),MSA only(MSA),or not meeting either AER or MSA(Inactive))and sleep duration(Short,recommended(Rec),or Long)were classified according to guidelines,and 12 PA-sleep categories were *** hazard ratios and 95%confidence intervals(95%CIs)for all-cause mortality risk were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression ***:A total of 282,473 participants(55%females)were included;18,793 deaths(6.7%)occurred over an average follow-up of 5.4 *** to the Active-Rec group,all other PA-sleep groups were associated with increased mortality risk except for the Active-Short group(hazard ratio=1.08;95%CI:0.92-1.26).The combination of long sleep with either MSA or Inactive appeared to be *** a given sleep duration,mortality risk progressively increased among participants classified as AER,MSA,and *** each activity level,the mortality risk was greatest among adults with long ***:Relative to adults meeting guidelines for both PA and sleep duration,adults who failed to meet guidelines for both AER and muscle strengthening PA and who also failed to meet sleep duration guidelines had elevated all-cause mortality *** results support interventions targeting both PA and sleep duration to reduce mortality risk.

关键词： Activity-sleep patterns All-cause mortality Prospective Resistance training

Development of a unilateral ureteral obstruction model in cynomolgus monkeys

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Animal Models and Experimental Medicine 2021年第4期4卷 359-368页

作者： Linghong Huang Jia Ni Tanika duncan Zhizhan Song Timothy S.Johnson Immunology Therapeutic Area UCB PharmaSloughUK Research and Development Prisys BiotechnologiesPudongChina

Background:Chronic kidney disease(CkD)has a high global prevalence and large unmet *** to developing new CkD therapies are in vivo models in ***,next-generation antibody,protein,and gene therapies are highly specific,meaning some do not cross-react with rodent *** complicates preclinical development,as established in vivo rodent models cannot be utilized unless tool therapeutics are also *** compounds can be difficult to develop and,if available,typically have different epitopes,sequences,and/or altered affinity,making it unclear how efficacious the lead therapeutic may be,or what dosing regimen to *** address this,we aimed to develop a nonhuman primate model of ***:In vivo rodent unilateral ureteral obstruction(UUO)models kidney fibrosis and is commonly used due to its rapidity,consistency,and *** describe translation of this model to the cynomolgus monkey,specifically optimizing the model duration to allow adequate time for assessment of novel therapeutics prior to the fibrotic ***:We demonstrated that disease developed more slowly in cynomolgus monkeys than in rodents post-UUO,with advanced fibrosis developing by 6 *** tubulointerstitial fibrosis in cynomolgus monkeys was more consistent with human obstructive disease than in rodents,having a more aggressive tubular basement expansion and a higher fibroblast *** fibrosis was also associated with increased transglutaminase activity,consistent with that seen in patients with ***:This cynomolgus monkey UUO model can be used to test potential human-specific therapeutics in kidney fibrosis.

关键词： animal models fibrosis kidney nonhuman primates transglutaminase

Overview of microRNAs as liquid biopsy biomarkers for colorectal cancer sub-type profiling and chemoresistance

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Cancer Drug Resistance 2021年第4期4卷 934-945页

作者： Alfred Buhagiar Elisa Seria Miriana Borg Joseph Borg duncan Ayers Faculty of Medicine and Surgery University of MaltaMsida 2080Malta Centre for Molecular Medicine and Biobanking University of MaltaMsida 2080Malta Faculty of medical sciences Newcastle UniversityNewcastle upon Tyne NE17RUUK Faculty of Health Sciences University of MaltaMsida 2080Malta Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health SciencesThe University of ManchesterManchester M139PLUK

Colorectal cancer(CRC)is the third most common cancer *** has also been demonstrated that over the last ten years the incidence of CRC among younger people below the age of 50 is also *** for colorectal cancer is of utmost importance;the rationale behind screening is to target the malignancy and reduce the incidence and mortality of the *** methods to screen for incidence or relapse are therefore a requisite to detect cancer as early as *** findings demonstrate that many deaths are due to lack of screening and therefore early identification will lead to greater *** colorectal cancer,diagnostic tests include liquid biopsy *** the discovery of microRNAs(miRNAs),many studies have demonstrated the relationship between miRNAs and the various sub-types of *** miRNAs have been identified after analysing serum or plasma samples in patients,and such miRNAs were found to be significantly *** findings place the possibility of miRNAs to be at the epicentre of novel diagnostic techniques for CRC identification and sub-type stratification,including other characteristics associated with CRC development such as patient *** following review serves to underline the latest findings for miRNAs with such potential for routine diagnostic employment in CRC diagnostics and treatments.

关键词： MicroRNA miRNA liquid biopsy biomarkers colorectal cancer cancer

Using the polymerase chain reaction coupled with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis to investigate the association between bacterial translocation and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in predicted acute severe pancreatitis

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2005年第45期11卷 7142-7147页

作者： Callum B Pearce Vitaly Zinkevich Iwona Beech Viera Funjika Ana Garcia Ruiz Afraa Aladawi Hamish D duncan Queen Alexandra Hospital Microbiology Research Laboratory

AIM: To investigate the use of PCR and DGGE to investigate the association between bacterial translocation and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in predicted severe ***: Patients with biochemical and clinical evidence of acute pancreatitis and an APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 were enrolled. PCR and DGGE were employed to detect bacterial translocation in blood samples collected on d1,3, and 8 after the admission. Standard microbial blood cultures were taken when there was clinical evidence of sepsis or when felt to be clinically indicated by the supervising ***: Six patients were included. Of all the patients investigated, only one developed septic complications;the others had uneventful illness. Bacteria were detected using PCR in 4 of the 17 collected blood samples. The patient with sepsis was PCR-positive in two samples (taken on d 1 and 3), despite three negative blood cultures. Using DGGE and specific primers, the bacteria in all blood specimens which tested positive for the presence of bacterial DNA were identified as E ***: Our study confirmed thatunlike traditional microbiological techniques, PCR can detect the presence of bacteria in the blood of patients with severe AP. Therefore, this latter method in conjunction with DGGE is potentially an extremely useful tool in predicting septic morbidity and evaluating patients with the disease. Further research using increased numbers of patients, in particular those patients with necrosis and sepsis, is required to assess the reliability of PCR and DGGE in the rapid diagnosis of infection in AP.

关键词： Polymerase chain reaction Acutepancreatitis Bacterial translocation

Assessing progression of keratoconus: novel tomographic determinants

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Eye and Vision 2016年第1期3卷 49-57页

作者： Joshua k.duncan Michael W.Belin Mark Borgstrom Department of Ophthalmology&Vision Science University of ArizonaTucsonAZUSA University of Arizona University Information Technology ServicesTucsonAZUSA

Several methods have been described in the literature to both evaluate and document progression in keratoconus,but there is no consistent or clear definition of ectasia *** authors describe how modern corneal tomography,including both anterior and posterior elevation and pachymetric data can be used to screen for ectatic progression,and how software programs such as the Enhanced Reference Surface and the Belin-Ambrosio Enhanced Ectasia Display(BAD)can be employed to detect earlier ***,in order to describe specific quantitative values that can be used as progression determinants,the normal noise measurement of the three parameters(corneal thickness at the thinnest point,anterior and posterior radius of curvature(ARC,PRC)taken from the 3.0 mm optical zone centered on the thinnest point),was *** values were obtained by imaging five normal patients using three different technicians on three separate *** 95%and 80%one-sided confidence intervals for all three parameters were surprisingly small(7.88/4.03μm for corneal thickness,0.024/0.012 mm for ARC,and 0.083/0.042 mm for PRC),suggesting that they may perform well as progression determinants.

关键词： keratoconus Tomography Ectatic disease Progression Amsler-krumeich Scheimpflug Collagen cross-linking

Insensitive Munitions （IM）： A key Aspect of Improved Munitions Safety

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含能材料 2006年第5期14卷 323-329页

作者： duncan Watt Eric Deschambault Patrick Touze Munitions Safety Information Analysis Center （ MSIAC ） NATO HQ Brussels B-1110 Belgium

The development of Insensitive Munitions (IM) has been progressing for over three decades. Ever since the highly publicized US Navy aircraft carrier accidents in the 1960s to 1980s, there has been a growing recognition of the value of IM. Reminders of the need for IM have been provided all too often in the form of accidents, such as experienced by the US Army at Camp Doha and the prevalence of attacks on military installations around the world. The process for developing IM has improved over the years as technology for mitigating the consequences of accidental initiation has emerged. Early IM developments were based upon replacement of the traditional TNT-based explosives, with their high vulnerability, with reduced vulnerability PBXs. This led to significant improvements, such as that observed with the replacement of H-6 with PBXN-109 in the US Navy Mk82 GP bomb. From the early 1990s, the use of a complete systems approach was highlighted as the optimum method to achieve IM compliance while maintaining or enhancing operational performance. The use of a systems approach has resulted in the fielding of a number of munition systems with significant IM properties. The challenge for the future is to continue the development and fielding of improved performance IM munitions with limited funding for research and the high cost of introducing new ingredients into energetic formulations. A key development to allow continued progress to occur is the introduction of improved versions of current explosive ingredients. The attention focused in the past few years on forms of RDX with reduced shock sensitivity has highlighted the possibility of improving well-known materials. In the near future, the application of materials technology may provide improved versions of other important crystalline energetic materials currently in production or advanced development, including HMX, NTO, CL-20 and ADN and help advance the development of further explosive ingredients such as FOX-7 and LL

关键词： Insensitive Munitions (IM) safety material science crystalline computer simulation

Determinants of private sector credit in Uganda: the role of mobile money

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Financial Innovation 2016年第1期2卷 151-166页

作者： Dorothy Nampewo Grace Ainomugisha Tinyinondi duncan Roy kawooya George Wilson Ssonko Economic Research Department Bank of UgandaKampalaUganda

Background:Mobile money services have been associated with unprecedented access to financial services,notably to under-banked and unbanked ***,mobile money opens a channel through which to examine the supply of private sector credit in *** study investigates how mobile money services influence private sector credit ***:We applied the vector error correction(VEC)model and Granger causality analysis to Ugandan data from March 2009 to February 2016,the period when mobile money services were ***:The VEC model reveals that mobile money has a significant positive longrun association with private sector credit *** causality analysis reveals long-run unidirectional causality from mobile money to private sector ***:Mobile money is critical for financial intermediation because it attracts resources from both the banked and the unbanked populations into the formal financial system,facilitating private sector credit growth.

关键词： Mobile money Private sector credit Uganda

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欧洲环境执政新模式分析

环境科学研究 2006年第B11期19卷 91-97页

作者： duncan Liefferink Department of Political Sciences of the Environment Radboud University NijmegenHK Nijmegen 9108Netherlands

对欧盟新的、开放式的和更具弹性的环境治理模式进行了评估,发现该政策的新模式并不是一剂万能药.在实际的引进与使用过程中,存在很多障碍,这些障碍主要与机构和文化因素有关.对政策制定或(和)执行所做的任何创新都必须从现有的机构设... 详细信息

对欧盟新的、开放式的和更具弹性的环境治理模式进行了评估,发现该政策的新模式并不是一剂万能药.在实际的引进与使用过程中,存在很多障碍,这些障碍主要与机构和文化因素有关.对政策制定或(和)执行所做的任何创新都必须从现有的机构设置和旧有的工作常规起步.证明机构路径依循的影响取决于具体事件和国家.因此,即使对于相同的一件事,在不同的政治系统中影响也可能不同.同一项政策在某个国家可能成功执行,在另一个国家可能要产生严重的问题.即使是很多基本特征都相似的邻国,也可能会出现这种差异.环境执政新模式,如自愿或协商的协议和其他方式,关注对公共-私营关系的加强,尤其是决策权力从国家中央向执行的分支部门和私营部门的转移.这要求所有有关方面情愿脱离现有的行政路径,从根本上重新分配各自的权力.解决问题的适当形式和成功很大程度上取决于运用新模式的国家的政治和机构背景.一般说来,市场手段要求正常运作的市场经济氛围,而公众参与或公共-私营关系只有可能在国家、企业和公民社会之间有相对公开沟通的背景下才能进展良好.当满足这些基本条件后,根据创新模式的具体特点,还有各种具体的政治和机构因素与其执行有关.

关键词：欧盟环境政治治理利益相关者参与执行