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Control of atmospheric CO_2 concentrations by 2050: A calculation on the emission rights of different countries

Science china Earth sciences 2009年第10期52卷 1447-1469页

作者： ding zhongli1, duan xiaonan2, ge quansheng3.& zhang zhiqiang4 1 institute of geology and geophysics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 The general Office of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100864, china 3 institute of geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100101, china 4 The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library, the Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, Lanzhou 730000, china institute of geology and geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China The general Office of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100864 China institute of geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy

This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions, a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries, to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. That a system rooted in "cumulative emissions per capita," the best conception of the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle affirmed by the Kyoto Protocol according to fundamental standards of fairness and justice, was demonstrated. Based on calculations of various countries' cumulative emissions per capita, estimates of their cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005, and their annual emissions allowances into the future (2006―2050), a 470 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration target was set. According to the following four objective indicators―total emissions allowance from 1900 to 2050, actual emissions from 1900 to 2005, emissions levels in 2005, and the average growth rate of emissions from 1996 to 2005―all countries and regions whose population was more than 300000 in 2005 were divided into four main groups: countries with emissions deficits, countries and regions needing to reduce their gross emissions, countries and regions needing to reduce their emissions growth rates, and countries that can maintain the current emissions growth rates. Based on this proposal, most G8 countries by 2005 had already expended their 2050 emissions allowances. The accu-mulated financial value based on emissions has reached more than 5.5 trillion US dollars (20 dollars per ton of CO2). Even if these countries could achieve their ambitious emissions reduction targets in the future, their per capita emissions from 2006 to 2050 would still be much higher than those of developing coun

关键词： international negotiations on climate change cumulative emissions per capita emission allowance

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On the major proposals for carbon emission reduction and some related issues

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Science china Earth sciences 2010年第12期53卷 159-172页

作者： ding zhongli1,duan xiaonan2,ge quansheng3.& zhang zhiqiang4 1 CAS Key Lab of Cenozoic geology and Environment,institute of geology and geophysics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,china 2 The general Office of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100864,china 3 institute of geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100101,china 4 The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library,Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment of CAS,Lanzhou 730000,china 1. CAS Key Lab of Cenozoic geology and Environment Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China2. The General Office of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100864 China3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China4. The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment of CAS Lanzhou 730000 China

We evaluated and ran simulations for seven proposals for the reduction of global CO2 emissions (e.g.,those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),United Nations Development Program,and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).All the proposals ignored the fact that the cumulative CO2 emissions per capita for developed countries were 7.54 times those for developing countries in the historical period of *** proposals further deliberately allocate 2006-2050 emission quotas to developed countries that are 2.3-6.7 times those to developing *** will seriously violate the development rights of developing *** paper clearly states that proposals such as that of the IPCC are not suitable references for future international climate change negotiations as they violate the fundamentals of fairness and equity in international relationships and the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities".Comparing estimates of emissions in china in the scenario of rapid development with low-CO2-emission technology in the period 2006-2050 with estimates for other countries and groups,we find that china can logically and morally argue for equivalent emission rights even in the case of the strict CO2 concentration target of 450-470 ppmv.

关键词： CO2 emission reduction cumulative CO2 emission per capita emission rights

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On the major proposals for carbon emission reduction and some related issues

On the major proposals for carbon emission reduction and som...

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中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所第十届(2010年度)学术年会

作者： ding zhongli~(1*),duan xiaonan~2,ge quansheng~3 & zhang zhiqiang~4 1 CAS Key Lab of Cenozoic geology and Environment,institute of geology and geophysics,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029, china 2 The general Office of chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100864,china 3 institute of geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100101,china 4 The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library,Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment of CAS,Lanzhou 730000, china

We evaluated and ran simulations for seven proposals for the reduction of global CO emissions(e.g.,those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),United Nations Development Program,and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).All the proposals ignored the fact that the cumulative CO emissions per capita for developed countries were 7.54 times those for developing countries in the historical period of *** proposals further deliberately allocate 2006-2050 emission quotas to developed countries that are 2.3-6.7 times those to developing *** will seriously violate the development rights of developing *** paper clearly states that proposals such as that of the IPCC are not suitable references for future international climate change negotiations as they violate the fundamentals of fairness and equity in international relationships and the UNFCCC principle of"common but differentiated responsibilities".Comparing estimates of emissions in china in the scenario of rapid development with low-CO-emission technology in the period 2006-2050 with estimates for other countries and groups,we find that china can logically and morally argue for equivalent emission rights even in the case of the strict CO concentration target of 450-470 ppmv.

关键词： CO2 emission reduction cumulative CO2 emission per capita emission rights

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