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Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1027-1044页

作者： Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Marcos Amaku Fernanda Castro Boulos Jose Alfredo de Sousa Moreira Joao Italo DiasFranca Julio Antonio do Amaral Eliana Nogueira Castro de Barros claudio Jose struchiner Esper Jorge Kallas Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil

In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy(VE)that we found in the literature,for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks,that is,when the force of infection grows in time,reaches a maximum and then *** fact that the disease occurs in outbreaks results in several problems that we *** propose a mathematical model that allows the calculation of VE for several *** trials usually needs a large number of volunteers that must be ***,all volunteers should be enrolled in approximately the same time,but this is generally impossible for logistic reasons and they are enrolled in a fashion that can be replaced by a continuous density function(for example,a Gaussian function).The outbreak can also be replaced by a continuous density function,and the use of these density functions simplifies the ***,for example Gaussian functions,one of the problems one can immediately notice is that the peak of the two curves do not occur at the same *** model allows us to conclude:First,the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the force of infection increases;Second,the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the gap between the peak in the force of infection and the peak in the enrollment rate increases;Third,different trial protocols can be simulated with this model;different vaccine efficacy definitions can be calculated and in our simulations,all result are approximately the *** final,and perhaps most important conclusion of our model,is that vaccine efficacy calculated during outbreaks must be carefully examined and the best way we can suggest to overcome this problem is to stratify the enrolled volunteer's in a cohort-by-cohort basis and do the survival analysis for each cohort,or apply the Cox proportional hazards model for each cohort.

关键词： Vaccine efficacy Clinical trials Mathematical models Simulations Covid-19

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Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第4期2卷 441-454页

作者： Eduardo Massad Marcos Amaku Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho claudio Joséstruchiner Luis Fernandez Lopez Annelies Wilder-Smith Marcelo Nascimento Burattini School of Medicine University of Sao PauloBrazil London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine UK College of Life and Natural Sciences The University of DerbyUK Programme of Scientific Computation Fundação Oswaldo CruzRio de JaneiroBrazil Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute St Michael's HospitalTorontoCanada Institute of Public Health University of HeidelbergGermany Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185 UmeåSweden Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore Hospital São Paulo Escola Paulista de MedicinaUniversidade Federal de São PauloSão PauloSPBrazil

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by *** method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived *** derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes'densities,the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes'*** method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.

关键词： Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes'densities Dengue Zika virus Yellow fever

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Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 46-55页

作者： Marcos Amaku Dimas Tadeu Covas Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto claudio struchiner Annelies Wilder-Smith Eduardo Massad School of Medicine University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSPSao PauloBrazil Instituto Butantan Sao PauloBrazil School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio VargasRio de JaneiroBrazil School of Veterinary Medicine University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Department Public Health and Clinical Heidelberg Institute of Global HealthUniversity of HeidelbergGermany Medicine Epidemiology and Global HealthUmeåUniversitySE-90185UmeåSweden Department of Disease Control London School of Hygiene and TropicalMedicineUK

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of *** this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-andquarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo,*** State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy,reaching at most 59%in late March and started to relax the measures in late June,dropping to 41%in 08 ***,São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the *** alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were *** strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State,reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD,that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%.The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts e this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st,it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90%at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Testing Cost-analysis Modelling

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Big data technology in infectious diseases modeling,simulation,and prediction after the COVID-19 outbreak

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智慧医学(英文) 2023年第2期3卷 85-96页

作者： Honghao Shi Jingyuan Wang Jiawei Cheng Xiaopeng Qi Hanran Ji claudio J struchiner Daniel AM Villela Eduard V Karamov Ali S Turgiev School of Computer Science and Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Center for Global Public Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102211China Fundação Getúlio Vargas Rio de JaneiroBrazil Instituto de Medicina Social Hesio Cordeiro Universidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil Programa de Computação Científica Fundação Oswaldo CruzRio de JaneiroBrazil Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology of the Russian Ministry of Health Russia National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases of the Russian Ministry of Health Russia

After the outbreak of COVID-19,the interaction of infectious disease systems and social systems has challenged traditional infectious disease modeling *** from the research purpose and data,researchers im-proved the structure and data of the compartment model or used agents and artificial intelligence based models to solve epidemiological *** terms of modeling methods,the researchers use compartment subdivi-sion,dynamic parameters,agent-based model methods,and artificial intelligence related *** terms of factors studied,the researchers studied 6 categories:human mobility,nonpharmaceutical interventions(NPIs),ages,medical resources,human response,and *** researchers completed the study of factors through modeling methods to quantitatively analyze the impact of social systems and put forward their suggestions for the future transmission status of infectious diseases and prevention and control *** review started with a research structure of research purpose,factor,data,model,and *** on the post-COVID-19 infectious disease prediction simulation research,this study summarized various improvement methods and analyzes matching improvements for various specific research purposes.

关键词： Infectious disease model Data embedding Social system Dynamic Modeling the social systems

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