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Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin

Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第1期48卷 65-73页

作者： chen yaning & xu zongxue xinjiang institute of ecology & geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, urumqi 83.011, china College of Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, china 1. xinjiang institute of ecology & {3. Chinese Academy of Sciences 830011 Urumqi China 2. College of Environmental Sciences Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China

Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow was detected, and the possible association between the El Ni(n)o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃ rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986, which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River, but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow.

关键词： climate change, hydrological change, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, Tarim River.

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Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

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Chinese Geographical Science 2008年第1期18卷 77-84页

作者： xu Jianhua chen yaning LI Weihong DONG Shan Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of Education Shanghai 200062 China Department of geography East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China The Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal *** main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,*** time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to *** the time scale is reduced to 8(23.or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.43.7,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic *** correlation dimension is above 3.which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3.The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973.is 0.503.,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in *** Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two *** Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indi-cates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

关键词： annual runoff, wavelet fractal Tarim River

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Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff of Kaidu River, xinjiang, china:A Multiple Time-scale Analysis

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Chinese Geographical Science 2008年第4期18卷 331-339页

作者： xu Jianhua chen yaning JI Minhe LU Feng Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of Education Shanghai 200062 China The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in china East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China The Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Major findings are as follows: 1) Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, average temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipi- tation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2) From the 3.-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipita- tion showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 3.-year to 4-year, we ob- served nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3. The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 3.-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.

关键词： runoff temperature precipitation nonlinear trend time scale Kaidu River

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Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第A01期51卷 25-36页

作者： xu Changchun chen yaning LI Weihong chen Yapeng xinjiang institute of ecology and {3. Chinese Academy Of Sci ences Urumqi 830011 China

在在过去的 50 年的 Tarim 河盆的气候变化和水疗院逻辑过程反应是越来越多的研究人员的焦点“注意。在这篇论文，温度和降水时间系列被发现介绍单音补品的增加趋势 usingnonparametric 测试。显著地，重要的步在温度和降水时间系列变... 详细信息

在在过去的 50 年的 Tarim 河盆的气候变化和水疗院逻辑过程反应是越来越多的研究人员的焦点“注意。在这篇论文，温度和降水时间系列被发现介绍单音补品的增加趋势 usingnonparametric 测试。显著地，重要的步在温度和降水时间系列变化发生在 1986。由在源流和主流对比自然的水过程的趋势，我们发现它不是人为的活动引起了河的气候变化在 Tarim 的更低的活动范围枯竭了，植被堕落了河。灰色的关联分析的结果证明散布河的更高的纬度的流量更仔细与冬季雪袜子被联系，当更低的纬度的与夏天温度有关仔细是更多时。在源流的流量对降水更敏感，当那对蒸发在主流更敏感时。尽管有降水在过去的 50years 上增加了的事实，增加温度引起的强壮的蒸发削弱了流量到某程度。

关键词：气候变化水资源非参数检验水文过程响应灵敏度

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Wavelet Analysis and Nonparametric Test for Climate Change in Tarim River Basin of xinjiang During 1959-2006

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Chinese Geographical Science 2009年第4期19卷 306-313页

作者： xu Jianhua chen yaning LI Weihong JI Minhe DONG Shan HONG Yulian The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in china East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of Education Shanghai 200062 China Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23.meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,*** findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup *** the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three ***,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing *** 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3. Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.

关键词： climate change nonlinear trend wavelet analysis Mann-Kendall test Tarim River Basin

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中国新疆生态变迁——揭示气候变化对植被动态的影响

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2024年第6期34卷 1039-1064页

作者：郝海超姚俊强陈亚宁徐建华李稚段伟利萨达夫-伊斯梅尔王桂玲 Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) School of Geographic SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability Kyoto UniversityYoshida-Nakaadachi 1Sakyo-kuKyoto 606-8306Japan Field Scientific Experiment Base of Akdala Atmospheric Background Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis ecology Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyCASUrumqi 830011China School of Geographic Science Nantong UniversityNantong 226007JiangsuChina

For the past several decades, climate change has been driving vegetation dynamics in arid regions worldwide. This study investigates vegetation dynamics and their links to climate from 1990 to 2020 in xinjiang, china, using data from 3.-m resolution land use and cover change, remote sensing, and climate reanalysis. Our approach encompasses a range of analytical techniques, including transfer matrix analysis, modeling, correlation, regression,and trend analysis. During the study period, there were major vegetation conversions from grassland to forestland in the mountains, and from cropland to grassland in the plains. Climate change emerged as an important trigger of these changes, as evidenced by the increase in net primary productivity in most vegetation types, except for cropland-grassland and grassland-cropland conversions. Precipitation and soil moisture were the most influential climatic factors, contributing 15.1% and 15.2%, respectively, to natural vegetation *** study also found that evapotranspiration serves as a key mechanism for moisture dissipation in the hydrological cycle of vegetation dynamics. The interplay between precipitation,soil moisture, and evapotranspiration is a critical pattern of climatic influence that shapes vegetation dynamics across zones of intersection, increase, decrease, and change. These insights are invaluable for informing vegetation conservation and development strategies in xinjiang and other similar environments facing climate-driven ecological transitions.

关键词： climate change ecological transitions LUCC NPP efficiency vegetation dynamics xinjiang

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Analysis on the ecological benefits of the stream water conveyance to the dried-up river of the lower reaches of Tarim River,china

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Science china Earth Sciences 2004年第11期47卷 1053-1064页

作者： chen yaning ZHANG Xiaolei ZHU Xiangmin LI Weihong ZHANG Yuanming xu Hailiang ZHANG Hongfeng chen Yapeng xinjiang institute of ecology and {3. Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Management Beureau od Tarim River Basin Kurle 831102China

This paper analyzes the monitored data of the 4 times of stream water conveyances to the river section where the stream flow was cut-off, of 9 groundwater-monitoring sections and 18 vegetation plots in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The results show that the groundwater depth in the lower reaches of Tarim River rose from 9.87 m before the conveyances to 7.74 m and 3.79 m after the first and second conveyances, 3.61 and 3.16 m after the 2 phases of the third conveyance, and 2.66 m after the fourth conveyance. The transverse response scope of groundwater level was gradually enlarged along both sides of the channel of conveyances, i.e., from 450 m in width after the first conveyance to 1050 m after the fourth conveyance, but the response degree of groundwater level was reduced with the increase of the distance away from the channel of conveyances. The composition, distribution and growth status of the natural vegetation are directly related to the groundwater depth. The indexes of Simpson’s biodiversity, McIntosh’s evenness and Margalef’s richness, which reflect the change of the quantity of species and the degree of biodiversity, are reduced from 0.70, 0.48 and 0.90 to 0.26, 0.17 and 0.3. re- spectively along with the drawdown of groundwater level from the upper reaches to the lower reaches. After the stream water conveyances, the natural vegetation in the lower reaches is saved and restored along with the rise of groundwater level, the response scope of vegetation is gradually enlarged, i.e., from 200— 250 m in width after the first conveyance to 800 m after the fourth conveyance. However, there is still a great disparity to the objective of protecting the “Green Corridor”in the lower reaches of Tarim River. Thus, it is suggested to convey the stream water in double-channel way, combine the conveyance with water supply in surface scope, or construct the modern pipe-conveyance network systems so as to save the natural vegetation in an intensive way, achieve the eff

关键词： tream flow cut-off river section stream water conveyance groundwater level natural vegetation ecological benefit Tarim River

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Combining BPANN and wavelet analysis to simulate hydro-climatic processes a case study of the Kaidu River, North-west china

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2013年第2期7卷 227-237页

作者： Jianhua xu yaning chen Weihong LI Paul Y. PENG Yang YANG Chunan SONG Chunmeng-WEI Yulian HONG The Key Laboratory of GIScience of the Education Ministry of china The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China East China Normal University Shanghai 200241 China The Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Department of Community Health and Epidemiology Queen's University Kingston K7L 3N6 Canada

Using the hydrological and meteorological data in the Kaidu River Basin during 1957-2008, we simulated the hydro-climatic process by back-propagation artificial neural network （BPANN） based on wavelet analysis （WA）, and then compared the simulated results with those from a multiple linear regression （MLR）. The results show that the variation of runoff responded to regional climate change. The annual runoff （AR） was mainly affected by annual average temperature （AAT） and annual precipitation （AP）, which revealed different varia- tion patterns at five time scales. At the time scale of 3.-years, AR presented a monotonically increasing trend with the similar trend of AAT and AP. But at the 2-year, 4- year, 8-year, and 16-year time-scale, AR presented non-linear variation with fluctuations of AAT and AP. Both MLR and BPANN successfully simulated the hydro- climatic process based on WA at each time scale, but the simulated effect from BPANN is better than that from MLR.

关键词： hydro-climatic process Kaidu River simulation wavelet analysis (WA) back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) multiple linear regression (MLR)

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Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in xinjiang, Northwest china

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第1期25卷 69-84页

作者： WU Meihua chen yaning xu Changchun Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology School of Resource and Environmental Sciences Xinjiang University Urumqi 830046 China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography CAS Urumqi 830011 China

Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.

关键词： risk assessment meteorological disaster information diffusion xinjiang

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Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in xinjiang

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2010年第4期20卷 599-612页

作者： xu Changchun chen yaning YANG Yuhui HAO Xingming SHEN Yongping Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography CAS Urumqi 830011 China Key Laboratory of Oasis ecology School of Resources and Environmental Science Xinjiang University Urumqi 830046 China Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research institute CAS Lanzhou 730000 China

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter-annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.

关键词： hydrology and water resources climate change xinjiang

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