Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin

作     者：CHEN Yaning & XU Zongxue Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China College of Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 

作者机构：Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China College of Environmental Sciences Beijing Normal University Beijing China 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2005年第48卷第1期

页      面：65-73页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by the State Key Basic Research and Development Plant of China(Grant No.2004CB720200) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.90102007) the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX1-08-03) 

主　　题：climate change, hydrological change, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, Tarim River. 

摘      要：Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow was detected, and the possible association between the El Ni(n)o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃ rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986, which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River, but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow.