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Research on the Asymmetric Effect of Fixed-Asset Investment on China's Primary Energy Production in the Context of Energy Transformation

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2024年第3期37卷 1163-1183页

作者： chai jian HE Peng ZHANG Xiaokong HOU Yamin School of Economics and Management Xidian UniversityXi'an 710126China

Under China’s“Dual Carbon”target(DCT),“clean replacement”on the energy supply side and“electric energy replacement”on the energy consumption side are the ways to achieve energy transformation.However,energy projects have a long construction period,complex technology categories,and investment risks that greatly affect the development of energy transformation.Correctly judging the effect of investment changes on primary energy production is of great practical significance to the realization of the DCT.Based on this,NARDL and TVP-SV-VAR models are innovatively used to reveal the nonlinear effect of fixed-asset investment on China’s primary energy production.The results show that the marginal effect of investment growth on coal production is about 1.44 times that of investment reduction.Similarly,the marginal effect of oil and gas investment growth is about 1.21times that of investment reduction.Due to the influence of resource constraints,China’s traditional fossil energy still has varying degrees of path dependence on the investment-driven development model.For non-fossil energy,investment in hydropower and nuclear power has an inverse correlation with the change in production.Negative marginal efficiency and diseconomies of scale have hindered the development of the hydropower and nuclear power industries.In addition,the asymmetric effect is not yet significant for the short development time and technical constraints of wind and solar power.From the impulse response results,the impact curves of investment in wind and solar power are generally positive,and investment has different degrees of time-delay and time-varying effects on various energy production,which verifies the heterogeneity of investment adjustment mechanisms in different energy industries.

关键词： "Dual Carbon"target fixed-asset investment primary energy NARDL nonlinearity

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Statistical Inference for Multicomponent System Stress-Strength Model with Bounded Strengths

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2023年第2期36卷 755-770页

作者： BAI Xuchao ZHANG Jieqiong chai jian School of Economics and Management Xidian UniversityXi'an 710126China School of Mathematics Northwest UniversityXi'an 710127China

In this paper,the statistical inference for system stress-strength reliability with bounded strength is discussed.When the stress and strength variables follow the three-parameter Exponentiated-Weibull distributions with unequal scale and shape parameters,the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE)and bootstrap-p confidence interval for system reliability are derived.In addition,combining the score equations which are got by taking the first derivative of the log-likelihood function with respect to the model parameters,the modified generalized pivotal quantity for the system reliability is obtained.After that,two point estimators and a modified generalized confidence interval based on the modified generalized pivotal quantity for the system reliability are derived.Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed point estimators and confidence intervals.Finally,a real data analysis is provided to illustrate the proposed procedures.

关键词： Exponentiated-Weibull distribution modified generalized confidence interval modified generalized pivotal quantity stress-strength reliability survival signature

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The Coupling Relationships and Influence Mechanisms of Green Credit and Energy-Environment-Economy Under China’s Goal of Carbon Neutrality

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2023年第1期36卷 360-374页

作者： chai jian WANG Yabo HU Yi ZHANG Xuejun ZHANG Xiaokong School of Economics and Management Xidian UniversityXi’an 710126China School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Under the goal of carbon neutrality,it is critical for China to give full play to the role of green credit,and promote the coordinated development of energy-environment-economy(3E)system.Based on the data of China from 2000 to 2020,the authors build the environmental pollution index,energy transformation index and high-quality economic development index.By using Bayesian network model(BN),the authors investigate the coupling relationships and influence mechanisms of green credit and 3E system.The results show that the main cause of environmental pollution is the annual increase of carbon dioxide emissions.Green credit can reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent,and alleviate environmental pollution through energy structure,technological progress and per capita GDP.Clean energy utilization and per capita GDP growth also help to control environmental pollution.Green credit can stimulate technological progress and accelerate energy transformation together with technological progress.Clean energy utilization can facilitate the upgrading of industrial structure,industrial structure upgrading and green credit can restrict the level of opening up.Technological progress promotes per capita GDP growth.Per capita GDP growth can reduce energy intensity and improve urbanization and per capita energy consumption.

关键词： Bayesian network carbon neutrality coupling nexus energy-environment-economy green credit

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Sustainable development of unconventional resources: Analysis of the transient linear flow oriented straight-line analysis technique

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Energy Reviews 2024年第1期3卷 49-75页

作者： Dan Xue Liangliang jiang Zixiang Wei Maojie chai jiang Liu Peng Deng Fuhe Lin jian Li jiansheng Zhang Zhangxing Chen Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering University of CalgaryCalgaryAlbertaCanada Guangdong University of Petrochemical and Technology MaomingChina School of Mathematics and Data Science Shaanxi University of Science and TechnologyXi'anChina Department of Energy and Power Engineering Tsinghua UniversityBeijingChina Eastern Institute for Advanced Study NingboChina China University of Petroleum(Beijing) BeijingChina

On the backdrop of dwindling conventional reserves,unconventional reservoirs have emerged as a pivotal chapter in resource extraction.Despite their challenges,such as low permeability,complex fluid storage,and flow mechanisms,hydraulic fracturing technology has underpinned the development of unconventional reservoirs.Consequently,this has brought about a shift in the sequence of flow regimes,e.g.,the transient radial flow regime has been largely shortened by the lengthy transient linear flow regime due to the low permeability of unconventional reservoirs.Moreover,straight-line analysis(SLA),the simplest technique in rate transient analysis(RTA),is a fundamental and potent tool for swiftly extracting reservoir and hydraulic fracture information,estimating oil and gas reserves,and furnishing crucial initial data for subsequent historical matching processes.However,there is currently a dearth of review papers pertaining to a necessary guide of applying SLA in various transient linear flow(TLF)regimes and different unconventional reservoirs.Hence,this paper commences by elucidating the classification of TLF regimes,commonly used methods for recognizing flow regimes,and the diverse SLA methods used for different TLF regimes.Subsequently,it delves into a discussion of different modification techniques for variable rate/flowing pressure,gas phase,complex reservoir characteristics in unconventional reservoirs,and dynamic drainage area concepts etc.Furthermore,the application of SLA in specific domains,namely core analysis and the flowback period,is described.It culminates by surveying the advancements through an integration of novel technologies to enhance estimation accuracy.The paper also highlights certain drawbacks of current SLA technology and proposes new research directions.Ultimately,this paper would serve as an indispensable resource,offering foundational knowledge for the application of SLA in TLF to promote the production of global unconventional resources in a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable fa

关键词： Unconventional reservoirs Straight-line analysis(SLA) Transient linear flow(TLF) Oil/gas reserves Hydraulic fracture information

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Weather and Birth Weight:Different Roles of Maternal and Neonatal GPR61 Promoter Methylation

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2022年第3期35卷 181-193页

作者： LI Zhi Yuan GONG Yong Xiang YANG Meng chai jian SUN Ren Jie LI Qin Yang HE Ya Nan HUANG Hui ZHANG Ya Wei BA Yue ZHOU Guo Yu Department of Environmental Health&Environment and Health Innovation Team School of Public HealthZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001HenanChina National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Birth Defects Prevention Henan Key Laboratory of Population Defects PreventionHenan Institute of Reproduction Health Science and TechnologyZhengzhou 450002HenanChina Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450001HenanChina Department of Environment Health Science Yale University School of Public HealthNew HavenCTUSA

Objectives It is unclear whether G protein-coupled receptor 61(GPR61)affecting body weight,plays a role in the association between birth weight and weather.This study aimed to assess the effects of prenatal weather and GPR61 on birth weight.Methods A total of 567 mother-newborn pairs were recruited in Houzhai Center Hospital during2011–2012.We detected the maternal and neonatal GPR61 promoter methylation levels,and obtained meteorological and air pollution data.Results A positive association was observed between maternal and neonatal GPR61 methylation levels,and both of them were affected by precipitation,relative humidity(RH)and daily temperature range(DTR).Birth weight was associated negatively with RH and positively with DTR(P<0.05).A significant association was observed between birth weight and neonatal GPR61 methylation.We observed that maternal GPR61 methylation seemed to modify associations between weather and birth weight(P_(interaction)<0.10),while neonatal GPR61 methylation mediated the effects of RH and DTR on birth weight(P<0.05).Conclusions Our findings revealed the significant associations among prenatal weather,GPR61 methylation and birth weight.Maternal GPR61 methylation may modify the susceptibility of birth weight to prenatal weather conditions,while neonatal GPR61 methylation may be a bridge of the effects of prenatal RH and DTR on birth weight.

关键词： Pregnancy Weather Birth weight GPR61 gene DNA methylation Mother-newborns

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Analysis on the Mutation and Time-Varying Characteristics of Coal Price System Evolution from the Perspective of Finance

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2021年第4期34卷 1501-1521页

作者： chai jian LEI Junchan SHI Huiting ZHANG Xuejun LANG Meiling School of Economics and Management Xidian UniversityXi'an 710126China

Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy security.Therefore,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price fluctuation.This paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial market.Firstly,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price fluctuation.Secondly,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal price.Thirdly,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price fluctuation.Financial market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price mutation.The authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal price.The impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.

关键词： Coal price financial market mutation

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经济-能源-环境系统耦合协调发展的动态演化与影响要素研究

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管理评论 2024年第1期36卷 29-41页

作者：柴建田凌钺张晓空西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院西安710126

我国经济发展、能源消耗与环境治理之间的矛盾愈发尖锐,经济-能源-环境(3E)系统耦合协调发展成为有效推动经济绿色低碳转型的必然选择。基于此,本文利用2004—2018年中国省域面板数据,使用耦合协调度与空间面板模型测算29个省份(港澳台... 详细信息

我国经济发展、能源消耗与环境治理之间的矛盾愈发尖锐,经济-能源-环境(3E)系统耦合协调发展成为有效推动经济绿色低碳转型的必然选择。基于此,本文利用2004—2018年中国省域面板数据,使用耦合协调度与空间面板模型测算29个省份(港澳台、西藏与云南除外)3E系统的耦合协调度,考察其动态演化规律与空间溢出效应,并对3E系统耦合协调发展的影响要素进行准确识别与政策讨论。结果表明:中国省域3E系统的耦合协调度虽有所提升,但“两极分化”加剧;整体呈现出空间正相关的集聚特征;绿色投资正外部性与人力资本提升能够有效促进3E系统耦合协调发展,而工业化、城镇化的快速推进,社会投资的结构性失调成为抑制3E系统耦合协调发展的重要因素。

关键词：经济-能源-环境系统耦合协调发展空间面板模型溢出效应

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DriodRC:基于资源和代码的Android应用重打包检测方法

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南京理工大学学报 2024年第3期48卷 328-334,383页

作者：柴源袁倩婷欧帆徐建南京理工大学计算机科学与工程学院江苏南京210094

由于Android系统的开放性,应用市场中有着大量的重打包应用程序,对开发者的利益和用户的安全隐私造成了威胁。该文提出一种基于资源和代码的Android应用重打包检测方法,以Android应用程序包(APK)中的资源和代码为分析对象,从资源角度提... 详细信息

由于Android系统的开放性,应用市场中有着大量的重打包应用程序,对开发者的利益和用户的安全隐私造成了威胁。该文提出一种基于资源和代码的Android应用重打包检测方法,以Android应用程序包(APK)中的资源和代码为分析对象,从资源角度提出了一种基于R文件匹配的粗粒度检测方法,对于可疑的APK对,进一步采用基于代码的细粒度检测方法识别重打包应用。在真实的Android应用数据集上开展试验,结果表明提出的方法的检测准确率达99.58%,优于现有的其他方法,且具有较快的检测速度,适合于大规模应用重打包检测。

关键词：资源代码粗粒度检测细粒度检测

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Pasternak地基中H(t)-V受荷桩水平响应有限杆单元法分析

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湖南大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年第3期51卷 99-110页

作者：江杰艾永林柴文成龚健欧孝夺邵云怡广西大学土木建筑工程学院广西南宁530004 广西大学特色金属材料与组合结构全寿命安全国家重点实验室广西南宁530004 广西瑞宇建筑科技有限公司广西南宁530299 中船第九设计研究院工程有限公司上海200063

为探讨桩顶水平动荷载H(t)与竖向荷载V联合作用下桩基的水平响应,基于Pasternak地基和Euler梁理论,建立了桩-土相互作用水平振动分析模型,采用改进的有限杆单元方法求解考虑P-Δ效应、土体剪切效应影响的综合刚度矩阵方程,结合桩土连续... 详细信息

为探讨桩顶水平动荷载H(t)与竖向荷载V联合作用下桩基的水平响应,基于Pasternak地基和Euler梁理论,建立了桩-土相互作用水平振动分析模型,采用改进的有限杆单元方法求解考虑P-Δ效应、土体剪切效应影响的综合刚度矩阵方程,结合桩土连续边界条件得到桩身内力与位移解答.通过与已有解析解、有限元解和模型试验的结果比较,验证了计算方法的合理性.最后,对影响桩身内力与位移的主要因素进行分析.结果表明:1)传统Win⁃kler地基相较于Pasternak地基模型,忽略了地基土体的剪切效应,将夸大桩体结构的实际受力,使得计算得到的桩身水平位移和弯矩均大于Pasternak地基所得结果,且随着桩土弹模比Ep/Es的降低,两种地基模型计算的桩身最大水平位移和弯矩的差异性呈现出增强趋势;2)随着桩顶竖向荷载的增加,桩身水平位移和弯矩受P-Δ效应的影响显著.当桩顶竖向荷载特征参数λ由0增至2时,桩身最大水平位移和弯矩分别提高40.85%和78.57%;3)相较无限长桩(L>20d_(p)),有限长桩的水平位移和弯矩的动力响应受桩身长径比L/d_(p)影响更大;桩身最大水平位移和弯矩随着水平简谐荷载幅值H_(0)的增加而增大,随着无量纲频率a_(0)的增大而减小.

关键词：水平动荷载轴向荷载有限单元法 Pasternak地基动力响应

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宋代土地诉讼中的恤孤幼寡老思想--以《名公书判清明集》判词为中心

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政法论坛 2024年第1期42卷 134-144页

作者：柴荣北京师范大学法学院

恤孤幼寡老的德治仁爱思想是中国古代优秀法文化的重要内容之一。土地作为基本的生产生活资料,对孤幼寡老的生活保障和精神抚慰都具有重要意义。宋代在涉及孤幼寡老的土地诉讼中,对这些弱势群体土地权益的保护,在立法和司法中均有体现:... 详细信息

恤孤幼寡老的德治仁爱思想是中国古代优秀法文化的重要内容之一。土地作为基本的生产生活资料,对孤幼寡老的生活保障和精神抚慰都具有重要意义。宋代在涉及孤幼寡老的土地诉讼中,对这些弱势群体土地权益的保护,在立法和司法中均有体现:其一,以律典敕令等法律形式,形成了“检校”等特别保护法律规范;其二,以仁爱为指导,通过“国法”与“情理”融合的方式,在司法实践中,对法律进行目的扩张性解释。从历史语境分析,中国古代对孤幼寡老的特别法律保护缘起于周代,宋代相对完备的恤孤幼寡老社会保障思想制度是自古传统人道法文化的延续丰富。从社会效果分析,宋代土地诉讼中对孤幼寡老的特别保护,是地方官府通过个案实践追求德治,以实现法律的仁政教化社会功能的重要路径。

关键词：宋代土地诉讼恤孤幼恤寡老《名公书判清明集》

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