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An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 728-743页

作者： Xiaomin Lan Guangmin Chen Ruiyang Zhou Kuicheng Zheng shaojian cai Fengying Wei Zhen Jin Xuerong Mao School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou350012FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Complex Models Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan030006ShanxiChina Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of StrathclydeGlasgowG11XHUK

The main epidemiological features such as basic reproduction number,effective reproduction number and sensitivity analysis were extensively discussed for multi-age groups SEIHR model in this ***,by using of the next generation matrix method,basic reproduction number R0 of the total population was estimated as 1.57 using parameter values of four age groups of Fuzhou COVID-19 large *** age group k,the values of R_(0k)(age group k to age group k),the values of R_(o)^(k)(an infected of age group k to the total population)and the values of R_(o)^(k)>R_(0k)>R_(o)^(k)(an infected of the total population to age group k)were also estimated,in which the explorations of the impacts of age groups revealed that the relationship was ***,the fluctuating tendencies of effective reproduction number Rt were demonstrated by using two approaches(the surveillance data and the SEIHR model)for Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave,during which high-risk group(G4 group)mainly contributed the infection scale due to high susceptibility to infection and high risks to basic ***,the sensitivity analysis using two approaches(the sensitivity index and the PRCC values)revealed that susceptibility to infection of age groups played the vital roles,while the numerical simulation showed that infection scale varied with the changes of social contacts of age *** results of this study claimed that the high-risk group out of the total population was concerned by the local government with the highest susceptibility to infection against *** This study verified that the partition structure of age groups of the total population,the susceptibility to infection of age groups,the social contacts among age groups were the important contributors of infection *** less social contacts and adequate hospital beds for high-risk group were profitable to control the spread of *** avoid the emergence of medical runs against new variant in the future,the polic

关键词： COVID-19 model Age group Omicron BA.5.2 variant Contact matrixSocial contact

Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19

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Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 2024年第2期6卷 67-75页

作者： Ruiyang Zhou shaojian cai Guangmin Chen Senzhong Huang Zhen Jin Zhihang Peng Weichuan Lin Fengying Wei Kuicheng Zheng School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Fuzhou 350012FujianChina School of Statistics and Data Science ZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030006ShanxiChina Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166JiangsuChina School of Mathematics and Statistics Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research Fuzhou 350001FujianChina Teaching Base of the School of Public Health of Fujian Medical University Fuzhou 350001FujianChina

The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this *** surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of *** optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario *** scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta ***,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth *** tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic *** study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two *** interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

关键词： COVID-19 SVEIR model Transmission dynamics Non-pharmaceutical interventions Delta variant Omicron variant

探索新时代工会工作创新构建银行和谐劳动关系

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中国城市金融 2018年第11期 48-50页

作者：蔡少健中国工商银行广东汕头分行

新时代工会工作的理论创新和现实意义中国特色社会主义进入新时代，面对新时代所展现的新特征，新时代社会主要矛盾的新变化，劳动关系的新变化，习近平总书记指出，“要把竭诚为职工群众服务作为工会一切工作的出发点和落脚点，全心... 详细信息

新时代工会工作的理论创新和现实意义中国特色社会主义进入新时代，面对新时代所展现的新特征，新时代社会主要矛盾的新变化，劳动关系的新变化，习近平总书记指出，“要把竭诚为职工群众服务作为工会一切工作的出发点和落脚点，全心全意为广大职工群众服务，认真倾听职工群众呼声，维护好广大职工群众包括农民工合法权益．扎扎实实为职工群众做好事、办实事、解难事，不断促进社会主义和谐劳动关系”。

关键词：和谐劳动关系工会工作创新中国特色社会主义农民工合法权益职工群众银行社会主要矛盾群众服务

Serological Investigation of Laboratory-Confirmed and Suspected Ebola Virus Disease Patients During the Late Phase of the Ebola Outbreak in Sierra Leone

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Virologica Sinica 2018年第4期33卷 323-334页

作者： Yang Liu YuLan Sun Wei Wu AQian Li XianDa Yang Shuo Zhang Chuan Li QiuDong Su shaojian cai DaPeng Sun HaiYang Hu Zhe Zhang XiuXu Yang Idrissa Kamara Sheku Koroma Gerald Bangura Alie Tia Abdul Kamara Matt Lebby Brima Kargbo Jiandong Li Shiwen Wang XiaoPing Dong YueLong Shu WenBo Xu George F. Gao GuiZhen Wu DeXin Li William J. Liu MiFang Liang Key Laboratory of Medical Virology and Viral Diseases Ministry of Health National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention (IVDC) Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) Beijing 102206 China Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Beijing CDC China) Beijing 100013 China Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jilin CDC China) Jilin 130021 China Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Fujian CDC China) Fuzhou 350001 China Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Shandong CDC China) Jinan 250014 China Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu CDC China) Nanjing 210009 China Beijing Institute of Biotechnology Beijing 100071 China Sierra Leone-China Friendship Biological Safety Laboratory (SLE-CHN Bio-safety Lab) Freetown 999127 Sierra Leone The Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS SL) Freetown 999127 Sierra Leone CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology Institute of Microbiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

This study aimed to investigate the serological characteristics of Ebola virus(EBOV) infection during the late phase of the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. In total, 877 blood samples from 694 suspected Ebola virus disease(EVD) cases assessed from March to December 2015, were analyzed via real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) for viral RNA and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) and Luminex to detect antibodies against EBOV. Viral load and EBOV-specific IgM/IgG titers displayed a declining trend during March to December 2015. Viral RNA load decreased rapidly at earlier stages after disease onset, while EBOV-specific IgM and IgG still persisted in 58.1%(18/31) and 93.5%(29/31) of the confirmed EVD patients and in 3.8%(25/663) and 17.8%(118/663) of the RNA-negative suspected patients in the later phase, respectively. Dynamic analysis of longitudinally collected samples from eight EVD patients revealed typically reversed trends of declining viral load and increasing IgM and/or IgG titers in response to the EBOV *** present results indicate that certain populations of Sierra Leone developed immunity to an EBOV infection in the late phase of the outbreak, providing novel insights into the risk assessment of EBOV infections among human populations.

关键词： Ebola virus (EBOV) Late phase Serologic investigation IgM IgG

Analysis of the distribution characteristics of enterovirus types based on environmental surveillance from 2013 to 2021 in Fujian Province, China

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Biosafety and Health 2023年第4期5卷 240-249页

作者： Xiuhui Yang shaojian cai Xiaoqian Wu Yong Zhang Dong Li Yahong Chen Qianjing Chen Shuangli Zhu Dongmei Yan Wenbo Xu Hairong Zhang Zhifei Chen Suhan Zhang Yong Zhou Mengping Zhang Ningxuan Zheng Na You Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research Fujian Center for Disease Control and PreventionFuzhou 350012China School of Basic Medical Sciences Fujian Medical UniversityFuzhou 350108China WHO WPRO Regional Polio Reference Laboratory and Ministry of Health Key Laboratory for Medical Virology National Institute for Viral Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionChangping DistrictBeijing 102206China Quanzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Quanzhou 362018China Longyan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Longyan 364000China Public Health School of Fujian Medical University Fuzhou 350108China

Environmental surveillance (ES) is a useful approach for monitoring circulating viruses, including polioviruses (PVs) and non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs). In this study, the results of nine years of ES from 2013 to 2021 at six sampling sites in three cities in Fujian Province, China, were summarized. It showed that the sewage samples contained abundant viruses, but the positive rate was affected by different sampling sites. From the 520 samples, 431 PVs, 1,713 NPEVs, and 281 human adenoviruses (HAdVs) were isolated. PV isolates had been markedly affected following the adjustment of the immunization strategy. All but one PV isolate were Sabin-like strains without wild PVs. One isolate was vaccine-derived PV type 3 with 10 variation points in theVP1 region. After May 2016, PV type 2 was no longer detected, and PV type 3 became a superior serotype. Of 1,713 NPEVs, 24 serotypes were identified, including echovirus11 (E11), E6, coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3), CVB5, E7, and E3 were the predominant serotypes (37.65%, 20.96%, 11.50%, 8.87%, 8.23%, and 7.06%, respectively). The temporal dynamic of the six common serotypes was inconsistent. E3 was frequently isolated, but the number of isolates was low, with no obvious peaks. E6, E7, and CVB3 exhibited periodic changes with a high peak every three to four years, and E11 only had one high peak lasting four years. Summer-fall peaks of the echoviruses and spring-winter peaks of CVB were observed in the monthly distribution of virus isolation. The infectious isolates of various serotypes of different species identified from the sewage samples showed that ES is an essential part of pathogen surveillance.

关键词： Enterovirus surveillance Enteroviruse Poliovirus Distribution characteristics

Correlation between the rock mass properties and maximum horizontal stress:A case study of overcoring stress measurements

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International Journal of Minerals,Metallurgy and Materials 2025年第1期32卷 39-48页

作者： Peng Li Meifeng cai Shengjun Miao Yuan Li Yu Wang Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines University of Science and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhou 221116China

Understanding the mechanical properties of the lithologies is crucial to accurately determine the horizontal stress *** investigate the correlation between the rock mass properties and maximum horizontal stress,the three-dimensional(3D)stress tensors at 89 measuring points determined using an improved overcoring technique in nine mines in China were adopted,a newly defined characteristic parameter C_(ERP)was proposed as an indicator for evaluating the structural properties of rock masses,and a fuzzy relation matrix was established using the information distribution *** results indicate that both the vertical stress and horizontal stress exhibit a good linear growth relationship with *** is no remarkable correlation between the elastic modulus,Poisson's ratio and depth,and the distribution of data points is scattered and ***,there is no obvious relationship between the rock quality designation(RQD)and *** maximum horizontal stress σ_(H) is a function of rock properties,showing a certain linear relationship with the C_(ERP)at the same *** addition,the overall change trend of σ_(H) determined by the established fuzzy identification method is to increase with the increase of C_(ERP).The fuzzy identification method also demonstrates a relatively detailed local relationship betweenσ_H and C_(ERP),and the predicted curve rises in a fluctuating way,which is in accord well with the measured stress data.

关键词： overcoring stress measurements elastic modulus Poisson's ratio rock quality designation maximum horizontal stress fuzzy identification

2009—2022年福建省手足口病变化趋势及时空聚集性分析

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中国公共卫生 2024年第9期40卷 1040-1044页

作者：詹美蓉谢忠杭蔡少健黄峥强陈武欧剑鸣福建省疾病预防控制中心福州350012

目的分析福建省2009—2022年手足口病的流行特征、时空聚集性及变化趋势。方法2009—2022年福建省手足口病发病数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的监测报告管理系统,运用描述流行病学、Joinpoint回归、空间自相关分析和时空扫描对福... 详细信息

目的分析福建省2009—2022年手足口病的流行特征、时空聚集性及变化趋势。方法2009—2022年福建省手足口病发病数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的监测报告管理系统,运用描述流行病学、Joinpoint回归、空间自相关分析和时空扫描对福建省手足口病进行分析。结果福建省2009—2022年共报告手足口病927366例,年均报告发病率为172.15/10万,重症率为0.62/10万,死亡率为0.018/10万,病死率为10.68/10万,手足口病报告发病率、重症率、死亡率和病死率均呈先升后降趋势。手足口病发病存在明显的季节性,每年有2个发病高峰,主高峰在每年的5—6月份,次高峰在9—11月份。重点人群为<5岁组儿童,占全部病例的91.33%。实验室确诊40637例,占全部确诊病例的4.38%,其中肠道病毒A71型(EV-A71)阳性占28.93%(11756/40637),柯萨奇病毒A16型(COX-A16)阳性占20.38%(8280/40637),其他肠道病毒阳性占50.69%(20601/40637)。福建省手足口病存在时空聚集性(Moran's I值=0.15~0.56,P<0.05),时空扫描共探测到3个聚集区,1个主要聚集区及2个次要聚集区。结论福建省2009—2022年手足口病存在明显的时空聚集性,疫情总体呈先升后降趋势,疫情防控重点应以地市为单位,加强对重点人群及在疫情高峰来临之前的手足口病防控工作。

关键词：手足口病流行特征变化趋势时空聚集性福建省

A Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Decomposition and Multi-Selection Strategy

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2025年第1期82卷 997-1026页

作者： Li Ma cai Dai Xingsi Xue Cheng Peng School of Computer Science Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an710119China Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Applications Fujian University of TechnologyFuzhou350118China Information Construction and Management Center and Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Educational New Productivity Ningxia Normal UniversityGuyuan756099China

The multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm(MOPSO)is widely used to solve multi-objective optimization *** the article,amulti-objective particle swarm optimization algorithmbased on decomposition and multi-selection strategy is proposed to improve the search ***,two update strategies based on decomposition are used to update the evolving population and external archive,***,a multiselection strategy is *** first strategy is for the subspace without a non-dominated *** the neighbor particles,the particle with the smallest penalty-based boundary intersection value is selected as the global optimal solution and the particle far away fromthe search particle and the global optimal solution is selected as the personal optimal solution to enhance global *** second strategy is for the subspace with a non-dominated *** the neighbor particles,two particles are randomly selected,one as the global optimal solution and the other as the personal optimal solution,to enhance local *** third strategy is for Pareto optimal front(PF)discontinuity,which is identified by the cumulative number of iterations of the subspace without non-dominated *** the subsequent iteration,a new probability distribution is used to select from the remaining subspaces to ***,an adaptive inertia weight update strategy based on the dominated degree is designed to further improve the search ***,the proposed algorithmis compared with fivemulti-objective particle swarm optimization algorithms and five multi-objective evolutionary algorithms on 22 test *** results show that the proposed algorithm has better performance.

关键词： Multi-objective optimization multi-objective particle swarm optimization decomposition multi-selection strategy

Experimental Research on a Feasible Building Insulation Material Based Reed in China

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Journal of Thermal Science 2025年第1期34卷 176-187页

作者： LIU Tiantian PENG Yizhe LIU Lifang cai Chenghan WANG Shuang LI Hongqiang College of Civil Engineering Hunan University College of Civil Engineering Hunan University of Science and Technology School of Energy and Power Jiangsu University of Science and Technology National Center for International Research Collaboration in Building Safety and Environment (NCIRCBSE) Hunan University Key Laboratory of Building Safety and Energy Efficiency of the Ministry of Education Hunan University

The seemingly useless reeds are prepared as thermal insulation materials,which not only meet the requirements of environmental sustainability but also enhance the added value of reeds,creating new economic *** hydrophobicity of raw biomass surfaces leads to problems such as weak bonding strength and non-dense structure in the formed materials,as well as issues related to the residual insect infestations on the *** this study,reed straw was used as the raw material,and foamed geopolymer was used as the binder to prepare building insulation materials based *** improve the interfacial adhesion performance between reed straw and foamed geopolymer,a thermochemical modification method-thermal carbonization,was *** this study,the mechanical properties and hydraulic properties of the studied materials with different degrees of surface thermal modification were tested,especially the fire resistance performance,and weathering resistance performance rarely found in published *** the surface thermal modification condition of reed straw was 250℃（30 min）,the comprehensive performance of reed-based building insulation materials was the best,when the studied material density was 321.3 kg/m3;the compressive strength was 0.59 MPa;the thermal conductivity was 0.101 W/（m·K）;the pH was 11.27;the moisture absorption rate was 25.1%,and the compressive strength loss rate in wet-dry cycles was 18.5%.In addition,it had excellent fire resistance performance and weathering resistance *** new material can be widely used to improve the thermal insulation of traditional buildings and as sandwich filler in prefabricated buildings,such as preparing insulating walls.

关键词： building insulation material based reed fire resistance performance interface adhesion properties pre-treatment of reeds weathering resistance performance