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A novel IDEA: The impact of serial interval on a modified- Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (m-IDEA) model for projections of daily COVID-19 cases

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 346-356页

作者： ben A.smith Public Health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada

The SARS-CoV-2 virus causes the disease COVID-19,and has caused high morbidity and mortality *** models are useful tools to predict future trends of disease progression such as COVID-19 over the near-term.A modified Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment(m-IDEA)model was developed to predict the progression of infectious disease *** modification allows for the production of precise daily estimates,which are critical during a pandemic of this scale for planning *** m-IDEA model was employed using a range of serial intervals given the lack of knowledge on the true serial interval of *** deterministic and stochastic approaches were *** fitting was accomplished through minimizing the sum-of-square differences between predicted and observed daily incidence case counts,and performance was retrospectively *** performance of the m-IDEA for projection cases in the nearterm was improved using shorter serial intervals(1e4 days)at early stages of the pandemic,and longer serial intervals at mid-to late-stages(5e9 days)thus ***,coupled with epidemiological reports,suggests that the serial interval of COVID-19 might increase as the pandemic progresses,which is rather intuitive:Increasing serial intervals can be attributed to gradual increases in public health interventions such as facility closures,public caution and social distancing,thus increasing the time between transmission *** most cases,the stochastic approach captured the majority of future reported incidence data,because it accounts for the uncertainty around the serial interval of *** such,it is the preferred approach for using the m-IDEA during dynamic situation such as in the midst of a major pandemic.

关键词： Forecasting/methods Models Statistical Communicable diseases/epidemiology SARS coronavirus-2 COVID-19

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Unraveling the dose-response puzzle of ***:A mechanistic approach

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2016年第1期1卷 101-114页

作者： S.M.Ashrafur Rahman Daniel Munther Aamir Fazil ben smith Jianhong Wu Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Centre for Disease ModellingDepartment of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoON M3J 1P3Canada Department of Mathematics Cleveland State UniversityClevelandOH 44115United States National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of CanadaGuelphON N1G 5B2Canada

Food-borne disease outbreaks caused by Listeria monocytogenes continue to impose heavy burdens on public health in North America and *** explore the threat *** presents to the elderly,pregnant woman and immuno-compromised individuals,many studies have focused on in-host infection mechanisms and risk evaluation in terms of dose-response ***,the connection of these two foci has received little attention,leaving risk prediction with an insufficient mechanistic ***,there is a critical need to quantifiably link in-host infection pathways with the doseresponse *** better understand these relationships,we propose a new mathematical model to describe the gastro-intestinal pathway of *** within the *** model dynamics are shown to be sensitive to inoculation doses and exhibit bistability *** the model to guinea pigs,we show how it provides useful tools to identify key parameters and to inform critical values of these parameters that are pivotal in risk *** preliminary analysis shows that the effect of gastroenvironmental stress,the role of commensal microbiota and immune cells are critical for successful infection of *** and for dictating the shape of the doseresponse curves.

关键词： L.monocytogenes Dose-response Mechanistic model Bi-stable Guinea pig

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Advancing index-based climate risk assessment to facilitate adaptation planning:Application in Shanghai and Shenzhen,China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第3期13卷 432-442页

作者： Zhan TIAN Xin-Yang LYU Huan ZOU Hong-Long YANG Laixiang SUN Maria Sunyer PINYA Qing-Chen CHAO Ai-Qing FENG ben smith School of Environmental Science and Engineering Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Shanghai Institute of Technology Shanghai 200235China School of Finance and Management SOAS University of LondonLondon WC1H 0XGUK Shenzhen National Climate Observatory of Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality Shenzhen 518040China Department of Geographical Sciences University of MarylandCollege Park MD 20742USA Arup Group Limited London W1T 4BQUK National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10081China China Meteorological Administration Climate Studies Key Laboratory Beijing 100081China

One of the key issues in climate risk management is to develop climate resilient infrastructure so as to ensure safety and sustainability of urban functioning systems as well as mitigate the adverse impacts associated with increasing climate ***,conventional methods of assessing risks do not fully address the interaction of various subsystems within the city system and are unable to consolidate diverse opinions of various stakeholders on their assessments of sector-specific risks posed by climate *** address this gap,this study advances an integrated-systems-analysis tool-Climate Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Tool(CRAIT),and applies it to analyze and compare the extent of risk factor exposure and vulnerability over time across five critical urban infrastructure sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen,two cities that have distinctive geo-climate profiles and histories of infrastructure *** results show significantly higher level of variation between the two cities in terms of vulnerability levels than that of *** specifically,the sectors of critical buildings,water,energy,and information&communication in Shenzhen have significantly higher vulnerability levels than Shanghai in both the 2000s and the *** further discussed the vulnerability levels of subsystems in each sector and proposed twelve potential adaptation options for the roads system based on four sets of criteria:technical feasibility,flexibility,co-benefits,and policy *** application of CRAIT is bound to be a knowledge co-production process with the local experts and *** knowledge co-production process highlights the importance of management advancements and nature-based green solutions in managing climate change risk in the future though differences are observed across the efficacy categories due to the geographical and meteorological conditions in the two *** study demonstrates that this knowledge co-creation process is valuable

关键词： Climate risk assessment Megacities Resilient urban infrastructures Subsystem Knowledge co-creation process China

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Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 123-132页

作者： Brendan P.Dougherty ben A.smith Carolee A.Carson Nicholas H.Ogden Centre for Food-borne and Environmental Zoonotic Infectious Diseases Public Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public Health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of Canada370 Speedvale Ave W.GuelphONN1H 7M7Canada Public Health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology LaboratoryPublic Health Agency of CanadaSt.HyacintheQCJ2S 2M2Canada

While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space,sections of the population at risk,and the efficacy of public health measures,reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of *** primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community,considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities(LTCFs),in specific provinces and Canada as a *** applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio(CFR)to all cases and deaths,as well as those representing the general *** second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR(mean=1.38%)was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in *** were developed for the period from March 11th,2020 to September 16th,*** of the percentage of cases reported(PrCR)and CFR varied spatially and temporally across *** the majority of provinces,and for Canada as a whole,the PrCR increased through the early stages of the *** estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1%to 69.0%throughout the entire study *** were greater when considering only those data from outside of *** estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07%on March 11th,2020 to 2.00%on September 16th,***,the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2%on September *** to our analysis,some provinces,such as Alberta,Manitoba,Newfoundland and Labrador,Nova Scotia,and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th,compared to British Columbia,Ontario,and *** could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria,demographics,socioeconomic factors,race,and access to healthcare among the *** investigation into these factors could reveal differences among provinc

关键词： SARS-CoV-2 Underestimation Coronavirus disease Long term care facilities Case fatality ratio

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Dimensionality engineering of metal halide perovskites

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Frontiers of Optoelectronics 2020年第3期13卷 196-224页

作者： Rashad FKAHWAGI Sean TTHORNTON ben smith Ghada LKOLEILAT Department of Chemical Engincering Dalhousic UniversityHalifaxNova ScotiaB3J IZ1Canada

Metal halide perovskites are a class of materials that are ideal for photodetectors and solar cells due to their excellent optoelectronic *** low-cost and low temperature synthesis have made them attractive for extensive research aimed at revolutionizing the semiconductor *** rich chemistry of metal halide perovskites allows compositional engineering resulting in facile tuning of the desired optoelectronic ***,using different experimental synth-esis and deposition techniques such as solution processing,chemical vapor deposition and hot-injection methods,the dimensionality of the perovskites can be altered from 3D to 0D,each structure opening a new realm of applications due to their unique *** engineering includes both morphological engineering reducing the thickness of 3D perovskite into atomically thin films and molecular engineering--incorporating long-chain organic cations into the perovskite mixture and changing the composition at the molecular *** optoelectronic properties of the perovskite structure including its band gap,binding energy and carrier mobility depend on both its composition and *** plethora of different photodetectors and solar cells that have been made with different compositions and dimensions of perovskite will be reviewed *** will conclude our review by discussing the kinetics and dynamics of different dimen-sionalities,their inherent stability and toxicity issues,and how reaching similar performance to 3D in lower dimensionalities and their large-scale deployment can be achieved.

关键词： optoclectronics solar cells perovskite photo-detectors metal halides dimensionality

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