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Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting through ensemble prediction system at NCMRWF in India

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2020年第2期9卷 106-116页

作者： anumeha dube Raghavendra Ashrit Sushant Kumar Ashu Mamgain National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Earth System Science OrganisationMinistry of Earth SciencesNoidaUttar PradeshIndia

This paper deals with the comparison of cyclone forecasts from the two versions of the operational global ensemble prediction system(EPS)at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NEPS).The previous version had a horizontal resolution of 33 km with 44 ensemble members(NEPS)whereas the updated version of this EPS has a resolution of 12 km with 11 members(NEPS-UP).The ensemble mean forecasts from both the models are compared using the direct position(DPE),along(ATE)and cross track(CTE)*** the verification of strike probability,Brier Score(BS),Brier Skill Score(BSS),Reliability Diagram,Relative Operating Characteristic(ROC)Curve and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)in mean Vs Spread in members are *** verification of intensity,RMSE in maximum wind speed from the ensemble mean forecasts are *** of ensemble mean tracks from both models showed lower errors in NEPS-UP for all forecast lead *** decrease in the DPE,ATE and CTE in NEPS-UP was around 38%,48%and 15%***-UP showed lower BS and higher BSS values indicating a better match between observed frequencies and forecast probabilities as well as higher prediction *** reliability diagram showed higher accuracy for NEPS-UP as compared to *** ROC curves showed that for forecasts with higher probabilities the hit rate was high in *** was a greater consensus between the RMSE and Spread for NEPS-UP at all lead *** was also seen that the RMSE in mean showed a 41%decrease from NEPS to *** comparing maximum wind,it was found that for all lead times the RMSE in maximum wind speed for NEPS-UP was lower than NEPS.

关键词： Ensemble Tropical cyclones Strike probability Tropical cyclone location verification Intensity verification

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REVIEW OF RECENT PROGRESS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING AND EXPRESSION OF UNCERTAINTIES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第4期8卷 181-218页

作者： Julian T.Heming Fernando Prates Morris A.Bender Rebecca Bowyer John Cangialosi Phillippe Caroff Thomas Coleman James D.Doyle anumeha dube Ghislain Faure Jim Fraser Brian C.Howell Yohko Igarashi Ron McTaggart-Cowan M.Mohapatra Jonathan R.Moskaitis Jim Murtha Rabi Rivett M.Sharma Chris J.Short Amit A.Singh Vijay Tallapragada Helen A.Titley Yi Xiao 不详

The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under the Tropical Cyclone Track *** forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC) track has seen significant improvements in recent decades both by numerical weather prediction models and by regional warning centres who issue forecasts having made use of these models and other forecasting techniques. Heming and Goerss(2010) gave an overview of forecasting techniques and models available for TC forecasting, including evidence of the improvement in performance over the years. However, the models and techniques used for TC forecasting have continued to develop in the last decade. This presentation gives an updated overview of many of the numerical weather prediction models and other techniques used for TC track prediction. It includes recent performance statistics both by the models and the regional warning centres.

关键词： Tropical Cyclone World Meteorological Organization Workshop Numerical Models Track Forecasting

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