Improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting through ensemble prediction system at NCMRWF in India

作     者：Anumeha Dube Raghavendra Ashrit Sushant Kumar Ashu Mamgain 

作者机构：National Centre for Medium Range Weather ForecastingEarth System Science OrganisationMinistry of Earth SciencesNoidaUttar PradeshIndia 

出 版 物：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》 (热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第9卷第2期

页      面：106-116页

学科分类：0709[理学-地质学] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0832[工学-食品科学与工程（可授工学、农学学位）] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 0704[理学-天文学] 0701[理学-数学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

主　　题：Ensemble Tropical cyclones Strike probability Tropical cyclone location verification Intensity verification 

摘      要：This paper deals with the comparison of cyclone forecasts from the two versions of the operational global ensemble prediction system(EPS)at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NEPS).The previous version had a horizontal resolution of 33 km with 44 ensemble members(NEPS)whereas the updated version of this EPS has a resolution of 12 km with 11 members(NEPS-UP).The ensemble mean forecasts from both the models are compared using the direct position(DPE),along(ATE)and cross track(CTE)*** the verification of strike probability,Brier Score(BS),Brier Skill Score(BSS),Reliability Diagram,Relative Operating Characteristic(ROC)Curve and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)in mean Vs Spread in members are *** verification of intensity,RMSE in maximum wind speed from the ensemble mean forecasts are *** of ensemble mean tracks from both models showed lower errors in NEPS-UP for all forecast lead *** decrease in the DPE,ATE and CTE in NEPS-UP was around 38%,48%and 15%***-UP showed lower BS and higher BSS values indicating a better match between observed frequencies and forecast probabilities as well as higher prediction *** reliability diagram showed higher accuracy for NEPS-UP as compared to *** ROC curves showed that for forecasts with higher probabilities the hit rate was high in *** was a greater consensus between the RMSE and Spread for NEPS-UP at all lead *** was also seen that the RMSE in mean showed a 41%decrease from NEPS to *** comparing maximum wind,it was found that for all lead times the RMSE in maximum wind speed for NEPS-UP was lower than NEPS.