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Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis:Insights from fluorography data

Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第3期7卷 374-386页

作者： Konstantin Konstantinovich Avilov alexei alexeevich romanyukha Evgeny Mikhailovich Belilovsky Sergey Evgenevich Borisov Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences8Gubkina Str.Moscow119333Russia Moscow Research and Clinical Center for Tuberculosis Control of the Moscow Government Department of Health 10Stromynka Str.Moscow107076Russia

Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis:unknown are both the rates of progression and the model“scheme”.The“parallel”scheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease,and the“serial”scheme considers all cases to be noninfectious at the onset,with some of them later becoming *** aim was to estimate the progression of the early stages of pulmonary tuberculosis using data from a present-day *** used the routine notification data from Moscow,Russia,2013e2018 that contained the results and time of the last fluorographic screening preceding the detection of tuberculosis *** provided time limits on the duration of untreated *** of TB progression under both models were *** the goodness of fit to the data,we could prefer neither the“parallel”,nor the“serial”model,although the latter had a bit worse *** the other hand,the observed rise in the fraction of infectious tuberculosis cases with the time since the last screening was explained by the“serial”model in a more plausible way e as gradual progression of some cases to ***“parallel”model explained it through less realistic quick removal of non-infectious cases and accumulation of the infectious *** results demonstrate the potential of using such detection data enriched with reassessments of the previous screenings.

关键词： Natural history of tuberculosis(TB) Mathematical modeling Minimal tuberculosis Model structure Fluorographic screening data

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The trade-off between COVID-19 and mental diseases burden during a lockdown: Mathematical modeling of control measures

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第2期8卷 403-414页

作者： alexei alexeevich romanyukha Konstantin Alexandrovich Novikov Konstantin Konstantinovich Avilov Timofey Alexandrovich Nestik Tatiana Evgenevna Sannikova Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Gubkina str.8Moscow119333Russia Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yaroslavskaya str.13Moscow129366Russia

Background:During the COVID-19 pandemic,many countries used lockdowns as a containment *** lockdowns successfully contributed to slowing down the contagion,the related mobility restrictions were reportedly associated with an increased risk of major depressive and anxiety *** aimed to quantify the trade-off between the quality-adjusted life years(QALY)gain due to lower COVID-19 incidence as a result of a lockdown and QALY loss due to lockdown-induced mental ***:We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic and coupled mental disorder development in the population of a large *** used data sources on the places of living,studying and working,public health and census *** of mental disorders was based on diathesis-stress *** quantified mental and physical health burden in terms of QALY taking into account major depressive and anxiety disorder episodes,lethal and non-lethal cases of COVID-19,and ***:We evaluated the dynamics of new major depressive disorder(MDD)and anxiety disorder(AD)cases during the period between September 2020 and December 2021 in Moscow,*** found that lockdown imposition increases the daily chances of getting MDD or ADD by a vulnerable person by 16.79%(95%CI[12.36%,21.23%]).The QALY loss associated with COVID-19-induced and lockdown-induced mental disorders was estimated to be 18.93%(95%CI[16.94%,19.73%])of the total QALY loss caused by COVID-19,immunization,and all kinds of mental *** a synthetic“strong”lockdown,it had been shown that QALY loss is minimized when about 70%of the population are ***:The burden associated with mental disorders amounts to a considerable part of COVID-19-related *** findings demonstrate that cost-benefit analysis of mobility restriction should include a forecast of mental disorder development in the population.

关键词： COVID-19 Agent-based model Major depressive and anxiety disorders Quality adjusted life years(QALY) Lockdown strictness Optimal lockdown

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