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Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

引用

Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第1期11卷 34-46页

作者： Kat S.Rock Ching-I Huang Ronald E.Crump Paul R.Bessell Paul E.Brown Inaki Tirados Philippe Solano Marina Antillon albert picado Severin Mbainda Justin Darnas Emily H.Crowley Steve J.Torr Mallaye Peka Mathematics Institute University of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology&Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research(SBIDER) University of WarwickAcademic Loop RoadCoventryCV47ALUK Independent Consultant EdinburghUK Department of Vector Biology Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineLiverpoolUK Institut de Recherche pour le Développement UMR INTERTRYP IRD-CIRADUniversitéde Montpellier34398MontpellierFrance Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute BaselSwitzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics(FIND) GenevaSwitzerland Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine(PNLTHA) MoundouChad

Background:In recent years,a programme of vector control,screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis(gHAT)infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of *** represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse,we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model,fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by *** present study outlines refinements to the model to:(1)Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting;(2)quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction;and(3)predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different ***:Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data(2000-2019)and a series of model *** include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method(increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured).A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the ***:We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015,by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection,and 1.5-fold for stage *** find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific(95%credible interval(CI):99.9-100%,Specificity=99.9%),the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false *** also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting(95%CI:96.1-99.6%,Reduction=99.1%)is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring *** line with previous results,the model suggests that transmission was

关键词： Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) Modelling Elimination of transmission Validation Tsetse Vector control Glossina Diagnostics

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