Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China

作     者：Wengang ZHANG Libin TANG Hongrui LI Lin WANG Longfei CHENG Tingqiang ZHOU Xiang CHEN Wengang ZHANG;Libin TANG;Hongrui LI;Lin WANG;Longfei CHENG;Tingqiang ZHOU;Xiang CHEN

作者机构：School of Civil EngineeringChongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain AreaChongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir AreasChongqing UniversityChongqing 400045China School of Civil EngineeringChongqing Three Gorges UniversityChongqing 404100China 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering》 (结构与土木工程前沿（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第14卷第5期

页      面：1247-1261页

核心收录：

学科分类：1305[艺术学-设计学（可授艺术学、工学学位）] 081504[工学-水利水电工程] 08[工学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0814[工学-土木工程] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(Nos.cstc2018jcyjAX0632 and cstc2019jcyj-bshX0043) the High-end Foreign Expert Introduction program(No.G20190022002) Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Disaster Prevention&Control for Banks and Structures in Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Nos.SXAPGC18ZD01 and SXAPGC18YB03) The financial support is gratefully acknowledged.The monitored data and historical records used in this study is from the Chinese National Field Scientific Observation Station of Landslide in The Yangtze Threc Gorges 

主　　题：reliability analysis Bazimen landslide rainfall reservoir water level slope stability 

摘      要：Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’life and *** is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir *** this study,the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)was back-analyzed as a case *** on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations,the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis,*** results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures,for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water *** probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide,compared with other parts in the *** seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope *** study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.