STUDY ON CARGO FLOW PROJECTION IN TUMEN RIVER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AREA

作     者：王荣成 叶宝明 

作者机构：Department of Geography Northeast Normal University Changchun P. R. China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Geographical Science》 (中国地理科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：1999年第9卷第1期

页      面：70-77页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 02[经济学] 08[工学] 0303[法学-社会学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 082303[工学-交通运输规划与管理] 0705[理学-地理学] 0813[工学-建筑学] 0704[理学-天文学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

主　　题：cargo flow projection routes comparison model gravity model sensitivity analyses 

摘      要：The paper studies the methodologies of the cargo flow study and projections in Tumen River Economic Development Area(TREDA) that some governments and international scholars used. The authors consider that, in order topromote investment, facilitation of cross-border trade and infrastructure in the region, the basic methodology should bebased on the regional economic growth of pertinent Northeast Asian countries and regions to make projections of the situations of regional cargo flows, and then analyzing the cargo flow trend. Based on the above, the authors utilize the routescomparing model and gravity model to forecast the cargo flows through the ports and related routes in TREDA (2000 -2020). The authors also inquire into the main obstacles which affect the cargo flows of the region, analyze the influenceson cargo flows if the obstacles change with sensitivity analyses and try to find the way to sole the obstacles.