Quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk induced by coupled multi-factor under icing conditions

作     者：Yang WEI Haojun XU Yuan XUE Xiaocong Duan Yang WEI;Haojun XU;Yuan XUE;Xiaocong Duan

作者机构：School of Aeronautics EngineeringAir Force Engineering UniversityXi'an 710038China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 (中国航空学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第33卷第8期

页      面：2146-2161页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (No. 2015CB755802) 

主　　题：Flight risk Icing Multivariate extreme value theory Quantitative assessment Visualization 

摘      要：Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate ***, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot s situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.