Changing climate patterns risk the spread of Varroa destructor infestation of African honey bees in Tanzania

作     者：Richard A.Giliba Issa H.Mpinga Sood A.Ndimuligo Mathew M.Mpanda 

作者机构：School of Life Sciences and Bio-EngineeringThe Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and TechnologyP.O.Box 447ArushaTanzania Beekeeping Training InstituteP.O.Box 62TaboraTanzania Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis(CEES)Department of BiosciencesUniversity of OsloOsloNorway Dar es SalaamTanzania 

出 版 物：《Ecological Processes》 (生态过程（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第9卷第1期

页      面：553-563页

核心收录：

学科分类：090504[农学-特种经济动物饲养（含：蚕、蜂等）] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 09[农学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：The authors thank the reviewers for their helpful comments and improvements suggested. The authors acknowledge the climate data providers WorldClim and KITE resources and MAXENT authors for the Java software version of the model 

主　　题：Apis mellifera Apiculture Varroa destructor Honey bee diseases 

摘      要：Background:Climate change creates opportune conditions that favour the spread of pests and diseases outside their known active *** climate change scenarios is oftentimes useful tool to assess the climate analogues to unveil the potential risk of spreading suitability conditions for pests and diseases and hence allows development of appropriate responses to address the impending *** the current study,we modelled the impact of climate change on the distribution of Varroa destructor,a parasitic mite that attacks all life forms of honey bees and remains a significant threat to their survival and productivity of bee products in Tanzania and ***:The data about the presence of *** were collected in eight regions of Tanzania selected in consideration of several factors including potentials for beekeeping activities,elevation(highlands ***)and differences in climatic conditions.A total of 19 bioclimatic datasets covering the entire country were used for developing climate scenarios of mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 for both rcp4.5 and *** thereafter modelled the current and future risk distribution of *** using ***:The results indicated a model performance of AUC=0.85,with mean diurnal range in temperature(Bio2,43.9%),mean temperature(Bio1,20.6%)and mean annual rainfall(Bio12,11.7%)as the important *** risk projections indicated mixed responses of the potential risk of spreads of ***,exhibiting both decrease and increases in the mid-century 2055 and late-century 2085 on different ***,there is a general decline of highly suitable areas of *** in mid-and late-century across all scenarios(rcp4.5 and rcp8.5).The moderately suitable areas indicated a mixed response in mid-century with decline(under rcp4.5)and increase(under rcp8.5)and consistent increase in late *** marginally suitable areas show a decline in mid-century and increase in late-centu