Distinct and combined impacts of climate and land use scenarios on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco

作     者：Fatiha Choukri Damien Raclot Mustapha Naimi Mohamed Chikhaoui Joao Pedro Nunes Frédéric Huard Cécile Hérivaux Mohamed Sabir Yannick Pépin Fatiha Choukri;Damien Raclot;Mustapha Naimi;Mohamed Chikhaoui;Jo(a)o Pedro Nunes;Fr(e)d(e)ric Huard;C(e)cile H(e)rivaux;Mohamed Sabir;Yannick P(e)pin

作者机构：IAV Hassan IIDepartment of Natural Resources and EnvironmentMadinat Al IrfaneRabatMorocco LISAHUniv MontpellierINRAEIRDInstitut AgroMontpellierFrance CE3C-Centre for EcologyEvolution and Environmental ChangesFaculdade de CienciasUniversidade de Lisboa1749-016LisboaPortugal INRAE-AgroClim228 Route de l’AérodromeCS 4050984914AvignonCedex 9France BRGMUniv Montpellier1039 Rue de Pinville34000MontpellierFrance ENFIbd Moulay YoussefTabriquetSALEMorocco 

出 版 物：《International Soil and Water Conservation Research》 (国际水土保持研究（英文）)

年 卷 期：2020年第8卷第2期

页      面：141-153页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 081803[工学-地质工程] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0901[农学-作物学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 0713[理学-生态学] 0834[工学-风景园林学（可授工学、农学学位）] 

基　　金：This work benefits from the financial support of JEAI“Vecteurs”funded by IRD institution,ALMIRA(ANR-12-TMED-0003 funded by ANR) MASCC(through ARIMNET2,an ERA-NET funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program for research,technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no.618127)projects.J.P.Nunes was further supported by a research grant from the Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia(IF/00586/2015) 

主　　题：Climate change Land use change SWAT Runoff Reservoir management Morocco 

摘      要：The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on wateravailability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in a data-scarce region. Impacts were assessed by comparing the simulated water and sediment entering the reservoir between the future period 2031-2050 and the 1983-2010 reference period. Three scenarios of land use change and two scenarios of climate change were developed in the Tleta watershed. Simulations under current and future conditions were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulations showed that climate change will lead to a sig-nificant decrease in the annual water supply to the reservoir (-16.9% and -27.5%) and in the annual volume of sediment entering the reservoir (-7.4% and -12.6%), depending on the climate change sce-narios tested. The three scenarios of land use change will lead to a moderate change in annual water inflow into the reservoir (between-6.7% and +6.2%), while causing a significant decrease in sediment entering the reservoir (-37%to-24%). The combined impacts of climate and land use changes will cause a reduction in annual water availability (-9.9%to-33.3%) and sediment supplies (-28.7%to-45.8%). As a result, the lifetime of the reservoir will be extended, but at the same time, the risk of water shortages will increase, especially from July to March. Therefore, alternative water resources must be considered.