Distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic and correlation with population emigration from Wuhan,China

作     者：Ze-Liang Chen Qi Zhang Yi Lu Zhong-Min Guo Xi Zhang Wen-Jun Zhang Cheng Guo Cong-Hui Liao Qian-Lin Li Xiao-Hu Han Jia-Hai Lu Chen Ze-Liang;Zhang Qi;Lu Yi;Guo Zhong-Min;Zhang Xi;Zhang Wen-Jun;Guo Cheng;Liao Cong-Hui;Li Qian-Lin;Han Xiao-Hu;Lu Jia-Hai

作者机构：One Health CenterSchool of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510080China Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast ChinaMinistry of EducationShenyang Agricultural UniversityShenyangLiaoning 110866China College of Animal Science and Veterinary MedicineShenyang Agricultural UniversityShenyangLiaoning 110866China Department of Health LawPolicy and ManagementSchool of Public HealthBoston UniversityBostonMA 02215USA Animal Experiment CenterSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510080China Department of Biological Science and TechnologySchool of Life SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510080China Center for Infection and ImmunityMailman School of Public HealthColumbia UniversityNew YorkNY 10032USA 

出 版 物：《Chinese Medical Journal》 (中华医学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2020年第133卷第9期

页      面：1044-1050页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by grants from the National Science and Technology Major Project(No.2018ZX10101002-001-001) National Key Research and Development Program Projects of China(No.2017YFD0500305) the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China(No.U1808202) NSFC International(regional)cooperation and exchange program(No.31961143024) the Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong province(No.2018B020241002) the Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Project(No.2018B020207013) 

主　　题：Corona Virus Disease 2019 Temporal Spatial Distribution Outbreak 

摘      要：Background:The ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia(Corona Virus Disease 2019,COVID-19)outbreak is spreading in China,but it has not yet reached its *** million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown,potentially representing a source of virus *** case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future ***:The official case report on the COVID-19 epidemic was collected as of January 30,*** and location information on COVID-19 cases was extracted and analyzed using ArcGIS and WinBUGS *** on population migration from Wuhan city and Hubei province were extracted from Baidu Qianxi,and their correlation with the number of cases was ***:The COVID-19 confirmed and death cases in Hubei province accounted for 59.91%(5806/9692)and 95.77%(204/213)of the total cases in China,*** spot provinces included Sichuan and Yunnan,which are adjacent to *** time risk of Hubei province on the following day was 1.960 times that on the previous *** number of cases in some cities was relatively low,but the time risk appeared to be continuously *** correlation coefficient between the provincial number of cases and emigration from Wuhan was up to *** lockdown of 17 cities in Hubei province and the implementation of nationwide control measures efficiently prevented an exponential growth in the number of ***:The population that emigrated from Wuhan was the main infection source in other cities and *** cities with a low number of cases showed a rapid increase in case *** to the upcoming Spring Festival return wave,understanding the risk trends in different regions is crucial to ensure preparedness at both the individual and organization levels and to prevent new outbreaks.