Warranty Claims Forecasting for New Products Sold with a Two-Dimensional Warranty

作     者：Anshu Dai Zhaomin Zhang Pengwen Hou Jingyi Yue Shuguang He Zhen He 

作者机构：Co-Innovation Center for Computable Modeling in Management ScienceTianjin University of Finance and EconomicsTianjin 300222China College of Aeronautic EngineeringCivil Aviation University of ChinaTianjin 300300China College of Management and EconomicsTianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 (系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第28卷第6期

页      面：715-730页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 

基　　金：supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71802145 71902180 71872123 and 71801064 71532008 

主　　题：Non-homogeneous poisson process new products two-dimensional warranty usage rate warranty data analysis 

摘      要：Warranty claims forecasting plays an increasingly important role not only for preparing financial plans but also for optimizing warranty policy and improving after-sale *** the case of new products,an important feature is that the new generation of products often has a close connection with the previous generations of products it ***,the warranty claims data of the previous generations of products can be used for extracting reliability information of new *** this context,we propose a warranty claims forecasting model considering usage rate for new products sold with a two-dimensional *** accelerate failure time model is introduced to investigate the effect of usage rate on product *** non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to model failure counts of repairable products and the constrained maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate model *** results of data experiments based on both simulation and real data collected from an automobile manufacturer in China show that the proposed model considering the varying usage rate outperforms the traditional models in forecasting the number of warranty claims.