Analysis of chaotic climatic process in the Tarim River Basin (I)

作     者：ZuHan Liu 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of the Education Ministry for Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed ResearchJiangxi Normal University Jiangxi Province Key Laboratory for Water Information Cooperative Sensing and Intelligent ProcessingNanchang Institute of Technology 

出 版 物：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 (寒旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第11卷第5期

页      面：340-349页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0705[理学-地理学] 070201[理学-理论物理] 0702[理学-物理学] 

基　　金：supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2016M600515) Postdoctoral Preferred Fund of Jiangxi Province(2017KY48) the Jiangxi Postdoctoral Daily Fund Project(2016RC25) the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research(Jiangxi Normal University) Ministry of Education(PK2017002) the Open Research Fund of Jiangxi Province Key Laboratory of Water Information Cooperative Sensing and Intelligent Processing(2016WICSIP012) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61703199) the Science and Technology Research Project of Jiangxi Provincial Education Department(GJJ180926) 

主　　题：chaos climatic process largest Lyapunov exponent Kolmogorov entropy correlation dimension 

摘      要：Based on observational data obtained from 1961 to 2011 in the Tarim River Basin,China,we investigated the chaotic dynamics of temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,and *** main findings are as follow:(1)The four data series have significant chaotic and fractal behaviors,which are the result of the evolution of a nonlinear chaotic dynamic *** climatic process in the Tarim River Basin also has deterministic and stochastic characteristics.(2)To describe the temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,and evaporation dynamics,at least three independent variables at daily scale are required;in terms of complexity,their order is evaporationtemperatureprecipitationrelative humidity.(3)Their respective largest Lyapunov exponentλ1 shows the order of their degree of complexity is relative humiditytemperatureprecipitation≈evaporation;the maximum time scales for which the four systems can be predicted are 17 days,17 days,16 days,and 16 days,if calculated separately.(4)The Kolmogorov entropy K illustrates that the complexity of the nonlinear precipitation system is much greater than that of the other three *** temperature and evaporation systems exhibit weaker chaotic behavior,their predictability is better,and the degree of complexity is less than that of the other two factors.