Development cost prediction of general aviation aircraft projects with parametric modeling

作     者：Xiaonan CHEN Jun HUANG Mingxu YI 

作者机构：School of Aeronautic Science and Technology Beihang University 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 (中国航空学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2019年第32卷第6期

页      面：1465-1471页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 08[工学] 082503[工学-航空宇航制造工程] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by the National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents, Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (No. 2017M610740) supports from Hefei General Aviation Research Institute, Beihang University 

主　　题：BP neural network Development cost General aviation aircraft Gray correlation analysis Linear regression P value analysis Parametric modeling Preliminary prediction Sensitivity analysis 

摘      要：The study of the development cost of general aviation aircraft is limited by small samples with many cost-driven factors. This paper investigates a parametric modeling method for prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft. The proposed technique depends on some principal components, acquired by utilizing P value analysis and gray correlation analysis. According to these principal components, the corresponding linear regression and BP neural network models are established respectively. The feasibility and accuracy of the P value analysis are verified by comparing results of model fitting and prediction. A sensitivity analysis related to model precision and suitability is discussed in detail. Results obtained in this study show that the proposed method not only has a certain degree of versatility, but also provides a preliminary prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft.