Calibration and Validation of Strategic Freight Transportation Planning Models with Limited Information
Calibration and Validation of Strategic Freight Transportation Planning Models with Limited Information作者机构：Université catholique de Louvain ILSM Center for Supply Chain Management Mons Belgium
出 版 物：《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 (交通科技期刊（英文）)
年 卷 期：2016年第6卷第5期
页 面：239-256页
学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学]
主 题：Calibration Validation Network Freight Transport Modal Choice Assignment
摘 要：Strategic transportation network models are often used as support tools in the framework of decisions to be taken at the policy level, such as the Trans-European Network projects. These models are mostly setup using aggregated or limited data. If their calibration is regularly mentioned in the literature, their validation is barely discussed. In this paper, several modal choice model specifications that make only use of explanatory variables available at the network level are described and applied to a large scale case. A validation exercise is performed at three levels of aggregation. The paper is designed from a strategic transport planning perspective, and does not present new modal choice formulations or assignment procedures. Its main added value is the focus on calibration and validation considerations. Despite the limited explanatory information used, the global performance of the best models can be considered as satisfactory. However, the quality of the models varies from mode to mode, the use of railway transport being the most difficult to predict without more specific input.
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