Optimal Initial Error Growth in the Prediction of the Kuroshio Large Meander Based on a High-resolution Regional Ocean Model

作     者：Xia LIU Qiang WANG Mu MU 

作者机构：CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and WavesInstitute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China Center for Ocean Mega-ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第35卷第11期

页      面：1362-1371页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0816[工学-测绘科学与技术] 0825[工学-航空宇航科学与技术] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420 and 41576015) the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Grant No. QNLM2016ORP0107) the NSFC Innovative Group (Grant No. 41421005) the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1606402) the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction (Grant No. GASI-IPOVAI-06) 

主　　题：Kuroshio large meander predictability ROMS optimal initial error growth 

摘      要：Based on the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method, this study explored the effects of optimal initial errors on the prediction of the Kuroshio large meander(LM) path, and the growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was revealed. For each LM event, two types of initial error(denoted as CNOP1 and CNOP2) were obtained. Their large amplitudes were found located mainly in the upper 2500 m in the upstream region of the LM, i.e., southeast of Kyushu. Furthermore, we analyzed the patterns and nonlinear evolution of the two types of CNOP. We found CNOP1 tends to strengthen the LM path through southwestward extension. Conversely,CNOP2 has almost the opposite pattern to CNOP1, and it tends to weaken the LM path through northeastward *** growth mechanism of optimal initial errors was clarified through eddy-energetics analysis. The results indicated that energy from the background field is transferred to the error field because of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities. Thus, it is inferred that both barotropic and baroclinic processes play important roles in the growth of CNOP-type optimal initial errors.