Urbanization,economic growth,and carbon dioxide emissions in China:A panel cointegration and causality analysis

作     者：刘彦随 严镔 周扬 

作者机构：Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCAS Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development ModelingCAS College of Resources Science and TechnologyBeijing Normal University University of Chinese Academy of Sciences 

出 版 物：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 (地理学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2016年第26卷第2期

页      面：131-152页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 08[工学] 083304[工学-城乡发展历史与遗产保护规划] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China No.41130748 No.41471143 Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China No.15ZDA021 

主　　题：urbanization economic growth C02 emissions panel cointegration Granger causality 

摘      要：Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization, economic growth, car- bon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period 1997-2010, this study empirically examines the relationships among urbanization, economic growth and carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions at the national and re- gional levels using panel cointegration and vector error correction model and Granger cau- sality tests. Results showed that urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions are inte- grated of order one. Urbanization contributes to economic growth, both of which increase CO2 emissions in China and its eastern, central and western regions. The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the western region was larger than that in the eastern and central re- gions. But economic growth had a larger impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region than that in the central and western regions. Panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional long-run causal relationship among urbanization, economic growth and CO2 emissions, in- dicating that in the long run, urbanization does have a causal effect on economic growth in China, both of which have causal effect on CO2 emissions. At the regional level, we also found a bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization and economic growth in eastern and central China. These results demonstrated that it might be difficult for China to pursue carbon emissions reduction policy and to control urban expansion without impeding economic growth in the long run. In the short-run, we observed a unidirectional causation running from land urbanization to CO2 emissions and from economic growth to CO2 emissions in the eastern and central regions. Further investigations revealed an inverted N-shaped re- lationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China, not supporting the envi- ronmental Kuznets curv