Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

作     者：Oleg LUGOVOY FENG Xiang-Zhao GAO Ji LI Ji-Feng LIU Qiang TENG Fei ZOU Le-Le 

作者机构：Environmental Defense FundWashington DC 20009USA Policy Research Center for Environment and EconomyMinistry of Environmental ProtectionBeijing 100029China Environmental Defense FundBeijing 100007China Policy Simulation LaboratoryState Information CenterBeijing 100045China National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International CooperationBeijing 100038China Institutes of EnergyEnvironmentand EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Policy and ManagementChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2018年第9卷第1期

页      面：1-15页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 

基　　金：Environmental Defense Fund 

主　　题：Carbon emissions projections Climate change CO2 emissions peak China’s Paris commitment Top-Down energy models Bottom-Up energy models Multi model comparative study China Energy Modeling Forum(CEMF) 

摘      要：The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum s(CEMF)first *** emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China s Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and *** CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 ***-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation *** sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for *** on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models structure and theoretical *** suggestions have been made regarding energy models development priorities for further research.