The 2 ℃ Global Temperature Target and the Evolution of the Long-TermGoal of Addressing Climate Change-From the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change to the Paris Agreement

作     者：Yun Gao Xiang Gao Xiaohua Zhang 

作者机构：Department of Sdence & Technology and Climate Change China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission Beijing 100038 China National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) Beijing 100038 China 

出 版 物：《Engineering》 (工程（英文）)

年 卷 期：2017年第3卷第2期

页      面：272-278页

核心收录：

学科分类：0810[工学-信息与通信工程] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 0808[工学-电气工程] 08[工学] 0817[工学-化学工程与技术] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 0805[工学-材料科学与工程（可授工学、理学学位）] 0703[理学-化学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 081202[工学-计算机软件与理论] 

基　　金：China Clean Development Mechanism Fund 

主　　题：Climate change International negotiationln tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeLong-term goal Critical vulnerability Intuitive building 

摘      要：The Paris Agreement proposed to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 ℃ abovepre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industriallevels. It was thus the first international treaty to endow the 2 ℃ global temperature target with legal effect.The qualitative expression of the ultimate objective in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change （UNFCCC） has now evolved into the numerical temperature rise target in Article 2 of theParis Agreement. Starting with the Second Assessment Report （SAR） of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change （IPCC）, an important task for subsequent assessments has been to provide scientific informa-tion to help determine the quantified long-term goal for UNFCCC negotiation. However, due to involvementin the value judgment within the scope of non-scientific assessment, the IPCC has never scientifically af-firmed the unacceptable extent of global temperature rise. The setting of the long-term goal for addressingclimate change has been a long process, and the 2 ℃ global temperature target is the political consensuson the basis of scientific assessment. This article analyzes the evolution of the long-term global goal foraddressing climate change and its impact on scientific assessment, negotiation processes, and global low-carbon development, from aspects of the origin of the target, the series of assessments carried out by the 1PCCfocusing on Article 2 of the UNFCCC, and the promotion of the global temperature goal at the political level.