Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey

作     者：CanElmarBALAS LeventKOC 

作者机构：Civil Engineering DepartmentFaculty of Engineering and ArchitectureGazi UniversityCivil Engineering DepartmentFaculty of Engineering and ArchitectureGazi University 06570 AnkaraTurkey06570 AnkaraTurkey 

出 版 物：《China Ocean Engineering》 (中国海洋工程（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2002年第17卷第1期

页      面：123-134页

核心收录：

学科分类：081505[工学-港口、海岸及近海工程] 08[工学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0824[工学-船舶与海洋工程] 0814[工学-土木工程] 082401[工学-船舶与海洋结构物设计制造] 

主　　题：vertieal breakwater simulation stability neural network reliability 

摘      要：In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ ) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. in the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable computers.