Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

作     者：HUANG Yao, LIU Shi-Hang, SHEN Qi-rong, ZONG Liang-gang, JIANG Ding-an and HUANG Hong-guang(College of Resource and Environmental Sciences , Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095 , P,R. China Institute of Atmospheric Physics , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100029 , P. R . China Agricultural Bureau of Yixing City, Yixing 214209 , P.R. China ) 

作者机构：College of Resource and Environmental Sciences Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing 210095 P.R. China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 P.R. China College of Resource and Environmental Sciences Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing 210095 P.R. China Agricultural Bureau of Yixing City Yixing 214209 P. R . China 

出 版 物：《Agricultural Sciences in China》 (中国农业科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2002年第1卷第4期

页      面：417-423页

学科分类：09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 090301[农学-土壤学] 

基　　金：supported by the Hundred Talents Program CAS and the Natural Science Foundation of China(30030090 39830220) 

主　　题：Agricultural soils Organic carbon Simulation model Validation Scenario analysis 

摘      要：A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.