Comparative Assessment of Impacts of Future Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Daqinghe Basin,China

作     者：INGABIRE Romaine CHANG Yuru LIU Xia CAO Bo UMUGWANEZA Adeline SHEN Yanjun INGABIRE Romaine;CHANG Yuru;LIU Xia;CAO Bo;UMUGWANEZA Adeline;SHEN Yanjun

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water ResourcesHebei-Key Laboratory of Water Saving AgricultureCenter for Agricultural Re-sources ResearchInstitute of Genetics and Developmental BiologyChinese Academy of SciencesShijiazhuang 050022China Uni-versity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis EcologyXinjiang Insti-tute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Geographical Science》 (中国地理科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2024年第34卷第3期

页      面：564-578页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFD1700500) Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province,China(No.D2021503001,D2021503011) 

主　　题：runoff climate change MIKE11-NAM model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) upper Daqinghe Basin,China 

摘      要：Assessing runoff changes is of great importance especially its responses to the projected future climate change on local scale basins because such analyses are generally done on global and regional scales which may lead to generalized conclusions rather than specific *** change affected the runoff variation in the past in the upper Daqinghe Basin,however,the climate was mainly considered uncertain and still needs further studies,especially its future impacts on runoff for better water resources management and *** with a set of climate simulations,a daily conceptual hydrological model(MIKE11-NAM)was applied to assess the impact of climate change on runoff conditions in the Daomaguan,Fuping and Zijingguan basins in the upper Daqinghe *** hydrological data(2008–2017)were used to evaluate the applicability of the MIKE11-NAM *** bias correction,future projected climate change and its impacts on runoff(2025–2054)were analysed and compared to the baseline period(1985–2014)under three shared social economic pathways(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)*** MIKE-11 NAM model was applicable in all three Basins,with both R^(2)and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients greater than 0.6 at daily scale for both calibration(2009–2011)and validation(2012–2017)periods,*** uncertainties remain,temperature and precipitation are projected to increase compared to the baseline where higher increases in precipitation and temperature are projected to occur under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively in all the *** changes will range between 12%–19%whereas temperature change will be 2.0℃–2.5℃ under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,*** addition,higher warming is projected to occur in colder months than in warmer ***,the runoff of these three basins is projected to respond to projected climate changes differe