Reduction of Space Debris Collision Prediction Uncertainty Based on Q-Sat Precise Orbit

作     者：Huang Pu Wen Guangwei Cai Yingkai Wang Zhaokui Huang Pu;Wen Guangwei;Cai Yingkai;Wang Zhaokui

作者机构：School of Aerospace EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina 

出 版 物：《Space(Science & Technology)》 (空间科学与技术（英文）)

年 卷 期：2023年第3卷第1期

页      面：1-9页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070202[理学-粒子物理与原子核物理] 0702[理学-物理学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant numbers 11872034 and U20B2056 the Manned Space Engineering Project of China under grant number 010201 Beijing Natural Science Foundation under grant number 1224039 

主　　题：collision precise debris 

摘      要：Collision probability is employed for evaluating whether there will be a dangerous encounter between 2 space *** fidelity of the collision probability mainly depends on the accuracies of orbit prediction and covariance prediction for the space *** this paper,the collision probability between the Tsinghua Gravitation and Atmosphere Science Satellite,Q-Sat,and the space debris with a North American Aerospace Defense Command ID of 49863 on 2022 January 18 was *** 2 objects approached each other dangerously close and the event was ***,the atmospheric density model is modified by a dynamic approach-based inversion to improve the accuracy of orbit prediction for the ***,predictions of position error covariance are carried *** of the next 24 hours are predicted,and the predicted orbits are compared with the actual orbits of the *** neural network was trained for predicting the position error *** the space debris,the 2-line element data are *** predictions for the space debris are also conducted and compared with the actual *** backpropagation neural network for predicting the position error covariance for the space debris is *** the covariances from the backpropagation neural network,the error ellipsoids of the 2 objects are *** error ellipsoids are later projected to the encounter plane to calculate the collision *** from the reports from other institutes,the closest distance between the Q-Sat and the space debris calculated by the current method was 2.71 *** collision probability was 1.16×10−*** was not a dangerous encounter *** onboard precise orbit determination device enabled improved orbit determination precision and orbit prediction accuracy,which is important for space safety management.