Epidemic Surveillance of Influenza Infections:A Network-Free Strategy—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China,2008–2011

作     者：Zhanwei Du Qi Tan Yuan Bai Lin Wang Benjamin J.Cowling Petter Holme 

作者机构：WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and ControlSchool of Public HealthLi Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited(D24H)Hong Kong Science and Technology ParkHong Kong SARChina Department of GeneticsUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK Department of Computer ScienceAalto UniversityEspooFinland 

出 版 物：《China CDC weekly》 (中国疾病预防控制中心周报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第4卷第46期

页      面：1025-1031,I0002-I0005页

核心收录：

学科分类：03[法学] 0302[法学-政治学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：Supported by Key Projects of Intergovernmental International Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation of National Key R&D Programs(No.2022YFE0112300) AIR@InnoHK administered by Innovation and Technology Commission of the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government。 

主　　题：network policy networks 

摘      要：Introduction:The ease of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)non-pharmacological interventions and the increased susceptibility during the past COVID-19 pandemic could be a precursor for the resurgence of influenza,potentially leading to a severe outbreak in the winter of 2022 and future seasons.The recent increased availability of data on Electronic Health Records(EHR)in public health systems,offers new opportunities to monitor individuals to mitigate outbreaks.Methods:We introduced a new methodology to rank individuals for surveillance in temporal networks,which was more practical than the static networks.By targeting previously infected nodes,this method used readily available EHR data instead of the contactnetwork structure.Results:We validated this method qualitatively in a real-world cohort study and evaluated our approach quantitatively by comparing it to other surveillance methods on three temporal and empirical networks.We found that,despite not explicitly exploiting the contacts’network structure,it remained the best or close to the best strategy.We related the performance of the method to the public health goals,the reproduction number of the disease,and the underlying temporal-network structure(e.g.,burstiness).Discussion:The proposed strategy of using historical records for sentinel surveillance selection can be taken as a practical and robust alternative without the knowledge of individual contact behaviors for public health policymakers.