MODELING STRATEGIES FOR CONTROLLING H1N1 OUTBREAKS IN CHINA

作     者：JIN ZHANG YANNI XIAO 

作者机构：Department of Applied Mathematics Xi'an Jiaotong University Xi'an 710049 P. R. China 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Biomathematics》 (生物数学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2012年第5卷第4期

页      面：63-81页

学科分类：0839[工学-网络空间安全] 08[工学] 09[农学] 0904[农学-植物保护] 081201[工学-计算机系统结构] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

主　　题：A/HIN1 influenza quarantine isolation least-squares fitting. 

摘      要：There has been a global attack of A/H1N1 virus in 2009, which widely affected the world＇s normal stability and economic development. Since the emergence of the first diagnosed A/H1N1 influenza infected person in 11 May 2009 in China, very strict policy including quarantine and isolation measures were widely implemented to control the spread of this disease before the vaccine appeared. We propose a compartmental model that mimics the infection process of A/H1N1 under control strategies taken in China s Mainland. Apart from theoretical analysis, using the statistic data of Shaanxi Province, we estimated the unknown epidemiological parameters of this disease in Shaanxi via least-squares fitting method. The estimated control reproductive number of H1N1 for its first peak was Rc1 = 2.555 （95% CI： 2.362 2.748） and that for the second peak was Rc2 = 1.886 （95% CI： 1.765-2.001）. Our findings in this paper suggest that neither quarantine nor isolation measures could be relaxed, and the implementation of these interventions can reduce the pandemic outbreak of A/H1N1 pandemic significantly.